673
FXUS61 KLWX 231300
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
900 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak area of high pressure will persist today bringing mostly
sunny skies, near normal temperatures, and lower humidity.
Shower and thunderstorm chances return with a cold front that is
set to cross the area Sunday into Monday. A strong dome of
Canadian high pressure builds thereafter with near to below
normal temperatures for much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure will drift eastward today as an upper-level
trough approaches from the west. Winds turn more southerly with
the high moving offshore, which will result in a moisture
return across the area. Dew points will be in the low 60s which
will be ~5-10 degrees higher than those of Friday, so it may
feel more "muggy" out. Cannot rule out a few showers and
thunderstorms across the Alleghenies this afternoon given the
proximity to the approaching trough/frontal boundary, but
probabilities are low at this time. Highs today will push back
into the upper 70s and low 80s. Lows tonight will fall back into
the mid to upper 60s, with upper 50s and low 60s west of the
Blue Ridge Mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
An upper low over southern Ontario on Sunday will dig across the
Great Lakes and northern Mid-Atlantic early next week pushing a
strong cold front through the area Sunday. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected Sunday into Sunday night before the
cold front moves eastward. SPC just has general thunder for
Sunday with no categorical outlook. Cannot rule out a SVR storm
or two, but there is a disconnect between moisture, instability,
and forcing. WPC has also removed the previous MRGL ERO for
areas generally west of US-15, which based on latest CAMs makes
sense given rather isolated to scattered progressive storms.

The cold front will exit the area early Monday after 06Z with
showers ending shortly thereafter. Expect a slight bump in
winds Monday as the front exits east and high pressure builds
from the Ohio River Valley. Gusts of 15 to 20 mph are possible
out of the north and northwest. Temps Monday will be below
average with 70s to near 80 for most. Areas AOA 3.5kft in the
Alleghenies likely don`t make it out of the 50s Monday - a sign
of what is to come later this week with a true Autumnal airmass
setting in. Lows Monday night in the 50s for most (60s along
water and city centers). High elevation valleys and bogs likely
see the first frost of the fall.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry conditions and below average temperatures are expected
throughout the long range period. There will be a few mid-level
disturbances moving across our northern zones and across
Pennsylvania, but little to no chances of rain showers across
the Mason-Dixon region around midweek. Temperatures will be
about 7 to 10 degrees below average.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue today as high pressure pushes east
of the region. Winds will turn back to the south gusting
between 10 to 15 kts. Prevailing VFR conditions are expected
on Sunday and Monday, although temporary drops to sub-VFR may be
possible on Sunday afternoon as scattered thunderstorms move
through. Winds will be out of the south on Sunday, and then out
of the west to northwest on Monday. VFR conditions are expected
thereafter for much of next week (Tuesday through Friday) as
Canadian high pressure settles over the region.

VFR conditions Tuesday through Wednesday night. Winds generally
northwest 5 to 15 knots Tuesday through Wednesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Weak high pressure will settle overhead today. High pressure
eventually weakens further while shifting offshore later today.
This will allow the winds to switch back to the south and for
channeling to occur. Southerly winds will gust to around 15 to
20 kts this evening. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect to
account for this.

Sub-SCA level winds are expected on both Sunday and Monday. Winds
will be out of the south on Sunday, and then out of the west to
northwest on Monday. SMWs may potentially be needed as thunderstorms
pass over the waters Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.

No marine hazards Tuesday through Wednesday night. Winds northwest
10 to 15 knots Tuesday through Wednesday night.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies will remain elevated through the weekend ahead of
the next cold front. Water levels will remain high as water
will have no place to go under light winds and then under
southerly channeling this afternoon through tonight until a
strong cold front crosses the area early Monday. For this
reason, Coastal Flood headlines have been extended through the
weekend.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for DCZ001.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for MDZ011-018-
     508.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 10 AM EDT Sunday for MDZ014.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for MDZ016.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for MDZ017.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for VAZ054-057.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Sunday
     for ANZ531>534-538>541-543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DHOF/CPB
NEAR TERM...DHOF/CPB
SHORT TERM...DHOF/CPB
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...KLW/DHOF/CPB
MARINE...KLW/DHOF/CPB/EST
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX