627
FXUS61 KLWX 200128
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
928 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the area today as high pressure
builds to the north. The cold front will stall to the south Sunday
before lifting as a warm front on Monday. A low pressure system
tracks across the Great Lakes on Monday with the associated cold
front swinging through the mid-atlantic Monday night into Tuesday.
High pressure builds to the north on Wednesday ahead of a nearby
front bringing precipitation chances at the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Organized bowing segment with history of severe level gusts is
moving through western Maryland and into the eastern West
Virginia panhandle. Strong effective shear and a notable rear
inflow jet are maintaining these storms, but they should
gradually weaken with eastward extent as they encounter weaker
instability.

The cold front has been somewhat modulated by the various
clusters of storms to our north, but will continue to drop
through from northwest to southeast overnight. Winds shift to
northwesterly late tonight behind the front. Outside of
additional upslope shower activity in the northwestern portions
of the forecast area, dry conditions continue overnight. Low
temperatures will be in the 60s for most with higher elevations
staying in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure builds to the north tomorrow with primarily
dry conditions expected. The exception will be west of the Blue
Ridge and south of US-50. The aforementioned cold front will be
stalled to our south, however, the proximity of the front combined
with peak daytime heating may result in showers and thunderstorms in
that area. Should convection initiate, the greatest threat would be
hail given the low freezing levels and mid-level shear. High
temperatures will be in the 70s to low 80s for most with those at
higher elevations staying in the 60s. Overnight low temperatures
will be in the 50s.

On Monday, a low pressure system tracks northeast across the Great
Lakes with the associated cold front approaching the forecast area
from the west. The aforementioned front to the south, will lift
north through the Mid-Atlantic as a warm front ahead of the low
pressure system. During the day, dry conditions are expected with
high temperatures in the 70s to low 80s. Those in NE MD and/or
at higher elevations will stay in the upper 60s. Precipitation
chances increase from northwest to southeast overnight as the
cold front approaches. Low temperatures will be in the 50s to
low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front draped over the area early Tuesday will be pushed
south during the afternoon by a reinforcing upper trough. Scattered
showers and some thunderstorms are possible Tuesday, mostly
along/south of I-66/US-48. Very warm conditions as highs reach the
upper 70s to low 80s. While the cold front is forecast to move into
southern VA, there could be some lingering showers in Central VA
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Beyond that, a surface high over the region brings dry conditions
Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. Highs in the 70s to low 80s for
the middle of next week, with overnight lows in the 50s to around
60F. Another cold front approaches late Friday and brings the next
round of showers and possible thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cluster of thunderstorms may affect MRB this evening, but the
storms should fall apart before affecting any of the metro
terminals. Lighter winds are expected overnight as a weak cold
front pushes through the forecast area. Winds shift to
northwesterly behind the front overnight. On Sunday, high
pressure shifts to the north, with northerly winds shifting to
easterly winds throughout the day. VFR conditions are expected
across all terminals today and Sunday. On Monday, winds shift to
southeasterly resulting in increased moisture and low level
clouds. With primarily VFR conditions expected, MVFR ceilings
are possible.

A cold front sagging south through the area on Tuesday could produce
scattered showers/thunderstorms, though the highest coverage is
likely to be south of most of the terminals. Will have to see for
any impacts at CHO. Otherwise, VFR conditions are likely to prevail
through the middle of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory conditions continue through this evening as a
cold front approaches and moves over the waters. Did extend the
advisory for middle portions of the bay until 5 AM, where the
wind shift will be later to arrive. Behind the front, winds
become northwesterly. Some marginal SCA gusts could occur behind
the front late tonight into Sunday morning, but confidence is
low. Winds shift to northerly and then northeasterly on Sunday,
before becoming east/southeasterly overnight. On Monday, SCA
criteria winds are possible as winds channel in southeasterly
flow. Winds shift to southerly Monday night and into Tuesday,
with SCA criteria winds continuing in the southern portions of
the Chesapeake Bay.

Favorable marine conditions possible for the middle of next week,
though gusts could approach 15 knots Tuesday afternoon. A cold front
sagging south through the waters through the day on Tuesday could
produce scattered showers and thunderstorms. Any strong storm could
pose a localized hazard to boaters. The front pushes south of the
area Wednesday morning as winds turn north, then east behind the
front on Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Very mild conditions this morning kept low temperatures in the 60s
across the area. If these temperatures hold through midnight local
time tonight (1 AM EDT), there could be several warm minimum
temperature records that are tied or broken. Below is a list of
daily record warm minimum temperatures for April 19, as well as the
observed minimum temperature so far today (as of 2 PM EDT).

Dulles (IAD), Annapolis (NAK), and Hagerstown (HGR) are on pace to
set new daily warm minimum records, while Baltimore Inner Harbor
(DMH) is on pace to tie the daily warm minimum record.

Martinsburg (MRB) is not only on pace to break the daily record for
April 19, but if the 69F holds it will set a new all-time warm
minimum temperature record for the month of April (beating out 68F
from April 18, 1896).

                            Apr 19      Apr 19
Climate Site                Warm Low    Low Temp
                            Record      Observed
Washington National (DCA)   69F (1896)  67F
Washington Dulles (IAD)     64F (2019)  67F - Daily Record Possible
Baltimore (BWI)             70F (1896)  69F
Baltimore Inner Hrb (DMH)   70F (1985)  70F - Tie Daily Record Possible
Martinsburg (MRB)           64F (1896)  69F - Monthly Record Possible
Annapolis (NAK)             65F (1899)  68F - Daily Record Possible
Hagerstown (HGR)            64F (2019)  68F - Daily Record Possible
Charlottesville (CHO)       66F (2019)  64F

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ530>532-
     535-536-538>542.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ533-534-537-
     543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AVS
NEAR TERM...ADS/AVS
SHORT TERM...AVS
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...ADS/AVS/KRR
MARINE...ADS/AVS/KRR
CLIMATE...KRR