654
FXUS61 KLWX 171405
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1005 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cut-off low pressure system will move from the Great Lakes to
New England through Sunday. High pressure will build in behind
the low pressure system and associated cold front Sunday and
Monday. Strong low pressure will approach mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cold front is expected to pass through the region today. A few
showers may develop particularly over the Appalachians and
northern Maryland this afternoon. Behind the frontal passage,
west to northwest winds are expected to increase quickly. Wind
Advisories remain in effect for our higher elevations of the
central Appalachians. These Wind Advisories may need to be
extended further in time, depending on the steady rush of cooler
and drier air into the region later tonight. High temperatures
today will be warm given downsloping flow. Lows tonight will be
cooler in the wake of the cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Dry conditions with seasonable temperatures on Sunday will be a
nice change since we have been dealing with an active week in
terms of convection, flooding, humidity and warmth. Highs
Sunday will be middle 70s. Sunday night`s temperatures will
bottom in the lower to middle 50s. Monday will remain dry and
seasonable with highs in the middle 70s again.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Lingering effects of high pressure Tuesday should keep the day dry,
though winds will become easterly resulting in increased cldcvr.
This will bring highs down into the low to mid 70s.

Shortwave trough will move in late Tuesday into Wednesday with
associated sfc low progged to move south of the area Wednesday then
up the coast. This will bring. By Wednesday, highs fall down into
the mid 60s to low 70s with rain looking likely through the day.
Given precipitable water values possibly into the 1.25 to 1.50 inch
range, there could easily be some heavy rain signatures. With a
number of locations receiving flooding rains earlier this week,
there could be some risk of additional flooding given such
antecedent conditions in place.

Temperatures remain below average through the remainder of the work
week as the upper trough passes through. Thursday would present a
chance for some residual showers before improvements occur by
Friday. This would offer a return to some sunshine before the
conclusion of the work week. Should skies clear with favorable
conditions, some late season frost is possible in the
Alleghenies.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Winds will shift from southwest to northwest throughout the day
today and gust to 20 to 30 knots. Gusty northwest winds could
continue through the day on Sunday as cooler and drier air moves
into the region. VFR conditions should continue through Sunday
into Monday.

VFR conditions are likely Tuesday in response to high pressure
across the region. On Tuesday, expect a shift to northerlies and
eventually over to north-northeasterlies by later in the day. Moving
to an onshore flow regime may introduce additional clouds into the
night. This leads to an unsettled pattern on Wednesday with lengthy
restrictions expected. Periods of rain are expected with easterlies
gusting to around 15 to 20 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Gusty west to northwest winds will ensue behind a front and
linger through Sunday into Sunday night. High pressure settles
in Sunday night and Monday, bringing sub-SCA winds.

Winds turn more north to easterly on Tuesday, but likely remain
below SCA criteria. Expecting rain much of Wednesday with winds out
of the east around 15-20 kts. SCAs are possible especially over the
southern waters.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for VAZ503.
WV...Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for WVZ501-505.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ530>543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM EDT Sunday for
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KLW/DHOF
NEAR TERM...KLW/DHOF/CPB
SHORT TERM...KLW/DHOF/CJL
LONG TERM...BRO
AVIATION...BRO/KLW/DHOF
MARINE...BRO/KLW/DHOF