642
FXUS61 KLWX 021757
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
157 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will remain stalled nearby through early
Thursday. Meanwhile, high pressure will continue to build into
the region through the weekend. High pressure then pushes
offshore through much of next week, bringing an increase in
humidity and daily chances for precipitation.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Mostly sunny skies are expected this afternoon for most of the
region as much drier air filters in aloft behind the front. The
drier air should act to limit the development of additional
showers or storms this afternoon, but a stray storm can`t be
ruled out. The best chance for a stray storm or two would be
over the Shenandoah Valley, where terrain circulations would be
the trigger. There is still a decent amount of CAPE, and decent
lapse rates, so getting a spotty shower to go is certainly not
out of the question. However, don`t expect them to amount to
much, given the dry advection as well as a bit of warming aloft.
This should keep storms from growing much taller than 20 kft, if
they develop at all. Again, most locations will remain dry
through the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures will
reach into the mid 80s for most.

Dry conditions and mostly clear skies are expected overnight,
with low temperatures in the 60s to near 70. If any stray storms
do develop, they should end quickly by 7-8 PM or so. Some
patchy fog may be possible, especially in sheltered river
valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Upper troughing will remain in place across eastern North
America tomorrow, with an embedded shortwave rotating through
the base of the trough just to our north across Upstate NY and
PA. A few showers or even a brief thunderstorm could form
tomorrow afternoon as this disturbance tracks to our north, but
dry air in the mid-levels should keep coverage of showers and
storms extremely low, if any occur at all. The chance is
actually too low at this point to mention in the online forecast
(less than 15 percent). Mostly sunny skies are expected
tomorrow, with high temperatures in the mid-upper 80s. Dewpoints
will drop into the 60s, making it feel noticeably less humid.
Clear skies and light to calm winds are expected Thursday night.
Temperatures should drop back into the 60s, and some patchy fog
may be possible during the second half of the night.

The aforementioned upper trough will depart to our northeast off
the New England coast on Friday. Large scale subsidence behind
the departing trough will encourage high pressure to build
in at the surface. Sunny skies are expected, with high
temperatures in the mid 80s for most. Dewpoints will continue to
drop, potentially even making it into the 50s by afternoon.
This will make it feel the least humid it has in quite some time.
Clear skies are expected 4th of July evening, with temperatures
in the upper 70s and low humidity.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
On Saturday, a strong longwave trough will continue to pull away
toward the Canadian Maritimes. The influence of a prevailing zone of
high pressure does allow for tranquil weather across the area. High
temperatures on Saturday are likely to top out in the mid/upper 80s,
with overnight lows in the 60s. This comes with lower humidity levels
than what was experienced at the end of June. Eventually heights aloft
are expected to slowly build through the weekend and into early next
week. The net result is a gradual warming/moistening trend which
carries high temperatures to around 90 degrees by Sunday and
Monday. Based on the latest global ensemble guidance, the peak in
this increase in summertime heat comes on Monday. A few solutions
carry high temperatures into the low to perhaps even mid 90s. However,
this will largely depend on cloud cover and the timing/coverage of
any shower and thunderstorm development.

The return of storm chances comes with the uptick in humidity as
southerly flow increases. In response to a slow moving trough back
across the Midwest and Great Lakes region, the opportunities for
showers and thunderstorms will increase on Tuesday into Wednesday.
Given how far this is into the forecast period, any severe component
to these storms is uncertain at this time. Additionally, precipitable
water values increase given the continued deep southerly flow. By
the middle of next week, the parent frontal system is forecast to
be just off to the north and west of the local area. Depending on
when this boundary passes through, a decrease in humidity would be
expected once this front exits.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through Friday night as high
pressure continues to build into the region in the wake of
today`s frontal passage. The one exception could be for a brief
shower or storm that could redevelop this afternoon, mainly near
CHO. However, those chances remain too low for a mention in the
TAFs at this time. Winds will be light and variable today, and
light out of the northwest on Thursday and Friday.

High pressure remains over the region over the weekend which will
favor VFR conditions across the area terminals. Thunderstorm chances
(20-30 percent) return by Monday which could lead to brief
restrictions during the afternoon/evening hours. Winds should be out
of the south through Monday with gusts increasing to around 10 knots
each afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA level winds are expected over the waters through Friday
night. Winds should be light and variable today, then light out
of the north to northwest on Thursday and Friday.

Southerly winds prevail through the weekend with wind gusts largely
topping out between 10 and 15 knots. By Sunday night, some southerly
channeling effects are possible which could near Small Craft
Advisory levels across the more southern waters.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CJL
NEAR TERM...CJL
SHORT TERM...KJP
LONG TERM...BRO
AVIATION...BRO/CJL
MARINE...BRO/KJP