350
FXUS61 KLWX 031839
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
239 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front will drop into the region late this evening and
become nearly stationary over the region through early
Saturday. The front will lift northward on Saturday as a warm
front before a strong cold front passes through from the west
on Sunday. High pressure is forecast to build over the region
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

A slow moving front that dropped into our region this morning is
slowly decaying as south to southwesterly winds slowly increase this
afternoon. As warm air advection increases, the low level cloud
cover over our region will steadily erode and be replaced by a mid
level overcast cloud deck. Warm air advection will help weaken the
low level inversion that was was observed in morning soundings and
will allow high temperatures to jump up into mid to upper 70s. I`ve
adjusted high temps down multiple times this morning as cloud cover
has been slow to break.

Isolated to scattered showers associated with a front over WV
continue to form and pass through parts of western MD and up along
the MD/PA border. A surface trough pushing through our region later
this afternoon and into this evening will become the focus for
renewed shower and thunderstorm development. Persistent cloud cover
combined with weak CAPE aloft should limit the coverage/threat for
severe thunderstorms, but areas east of I-81 and along and south of
the DC metro will have the best chance of experiencing strong
thunderstorms. Main threat window for thunderstorms will be between
22Z and 3Z this evening with another round possible overnight.
The main thunderstorm threat will be strong to damaging wind
gusts.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

A cold front is expected to move into our region from the northwest
early on Friday and stall over our region. This boundary will become
the focus for shower and thunderstorm development through Saturday
morning. Main uncertainty with the front is how far south the front
will drop into our region before it becomes near stationary. A large
gradient in high temperatures is likely on Friday with high
temperatures north of the boundary not getting out of the 60s while
high temps south of the front will likely rising up into the 70s and
low 80s. The best chance for shower development will be in areas
along and just north of the front due to overrunning precipitation.

The front is forecast to lift back north of our region as a warm
front on Saturday leading to the return of warm air advection. A
period dry weather is likely Saturday afternoon before another round
of precipitation is possible late Saturday evening to Sunday due to
a cold frontal passage from the west. High temperatures are forecast
to recover on Saturday with highs in the 70s to low 80s for most of
the region. Areas in NE MD may remain cooler on the cold side of the
front. The threat for thunderstorms and severe weather should remain
low on Saturday as the cold front is forecast to pass through the
region late Saturday into Sunday morning.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

A cold front will cross the area Sunday afternoon triggering more
showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be severe, east of
Route 15. Showers will also lag behind north of the frontal zone and
last through Sunday evening and may linger across far southern MD
until Monday afternoon.

A second stronger cold front will drop into the area late Monday
night with gusty NW winds and upslope precipitation as an anomalous
upper low crosses the northern Mid-Atlantic. 850T drop to -11C Tue
bringing unseasonably very chilly air for early April. Sub-freezing
temperatures are likely Wed and Thu mornings, in addition to
mountain snow. Temps rebound some during the second half of next
week, but remain below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Low level IFR and MVFR clouds are slowly eroding through this
afternoon and will be replaced by a VFR mid level deck of clouds.
Winds will increase out of the south to southwest with gusts between
20 and 30 knots possible. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms could bring brief aviation restrictions to our TAF
sites along and north of I-66 with the best chance for precipitation
being between 00 and 4Z this evening. Showers should clear out of
most TAF sites overnight, with MVFR ceilings settling over all
terminals but CHO by daybreak on Friday. MVFR conditions are likely
to continue through Friday with winds becoming light out of the
north. VFR conditions are likely to return on Saturday for all
terminals but the Baltimore metro airports with winds slowly
shifting out of the south. BWI/MTN will likely become VFR late
Saturday afternoon to early Sat evening. Showers may impact all
terminals late Saturday into Sunday.

Gusts winds up to 30 kt Sunday behind the front and showers
persisting through Sunday evening. Second stronger cold front late
Monday night and Tue will bring stronger winds up to 35 kt.

&&

.MARINE...

Wind gusts over the waters will slowly weaken through this evening
with SubSCA conditions likely on Friday into Saturday. Small Craft
Advisory level winds may return on Sunday.

SCA conditions are likely Sunday with the potential for Special
Marine Warnings. Strong SCA conditions Tue with potential for
gales.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...LFR/JMG
MARINE...LFR/JMG