682
FXUS61 KLWX 230144
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
844 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will settle to the south by Sunday, bringing
continued dry conditions along with a gradual warmup. This high
pressure system moves offshore Monday. A mainly dry cold front
will push through the region on Tuesday, while a wetter system
may impact the area later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave disturbance located
overhead this evening. Most the large scale ascent and
associated mid-high level clouds ahead of this disturbance are
starting to depart off toward the east this evening. Skies will
continue to clear moving into the overnight as this disturbance
progresses off to our east. At the surface, high pressure will
build to our south. Most clear skies and light winds are
expected overnight, with lows in the lower to middle 20s for
most (near 30 in downtown DC/Baltimore, upper teens in the
mountains).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As the aforementioned area of high pressure moves further south
on Sunday, the winds will become more westerly. This favors
downsloping winds which in turn will have two impacts. The first
is compressional warming which should result in highs close to
climo if not a few degrees above for most locales (40s to 50s
for most, 30s mtns). The second is downsloping winds bringing
drier air down to the surface tomorrow afternoon. Have undercut
NBM Tds by several degrees in favored areas. This brings RHs
into the mid to upper 20s for a few hours tomorrow afternoon.
Winds will remain light (less than 10 kt gusts) along with
recent snowmelt and rain should keep any fire weather threat
minimal. Like the previous day, mid/high clouds will pass
overhead as disturbances aloft track through. But these should
not hinder warming given ample boundary layer mixing. Heading
into Sunday night, forecast lows stay very close to late
February climatology (mid/upper 20s, locally cooler in the
mountains).

The warming trend continues Monday as H5 heights continue to
rise. A return flow with southerly winds will result in gusts
up to 15 to 20 mph before subsiding after sunset. This flow will
bring temperatures into the 50s for most locales (40s mtns).
Monday night will be the warmest in some time, due to increasing
clouds, which should keep most areas outside of the Alleghenies
above freezing.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A disturbance and its associated cold front will move toward
our area Tuesday and should move across Tuesday evening.
Moisture should be limited. Most, if any, precipitation should
be light and isolated and could be kept near the Mason-Dixon
region and our northern mountains. Temperatures will be on the
warm side, reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s widespread.

High pressure will build in behind the disturbance and cold front
Wednesday, before moving east Wednesday night. Dry and slightly
cooler conditions will be possible. A westerly component to the
surface wind could result in a continuation of warm temperatures
with highs near or slightly above 60 degrees.

A low pressure system and cold front could approach the region
Wednesday night before moving across the region Thursday into
Thursday night. This combination will increase our rain chances
during this period compared to the Tuesday system. High temperatures
may be a couple of degrees cooler but still on the mild side for
late February. Cloud cover and a couple of existing rain showers
will be the factors that keep the temperatures down just a few
degrees.

Friday is expected to be even cooler bringing our high temperatures
closer to average or just a few degrees below average. Some early
morning rain over the Chesapeake should move out during the day
Friday with some upslope rain and snow in the mountains fading away
as well. Highs more likely near 50 or lower 50s. About 7 to 15
degrees colder in the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A sprawling area of high pressure will maintain VFR conditions
across the TAF sites through the weekend and into early next
week. Some mid/high clouds are expected to track overhead each
day, but these should be little impact to aviation interests.
Light southwesterly winds give way to northwesterly flow by
Sunday. On Monday, southerlies should increase to around 10 to
15 knots ahead of the next system.

VFR conditions Tuesday through Wednesday night. Some light rain is
possible near MRB Tuesday into Tuesday evening; otherwise, dry
conditions and mild temperatures expected through the forecast
period. Winds southwest shifting northwest 5 to 10 knots Tuesday and
Tuesday night. Winds northwest becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds remain light through the evening with gusts around 10
knots or less, before a slight increase tonight to 15 knots as
winds shift to south-southwesterly. Winds turn light again on
Sunday before an increase in southerly winds ensues by Monday.
Some of these winds could push into the 15 to 20 knot range
requiring SCAs.

No marine hazards Tuesday through Wednesday night. Winds southwest
around 10 knots Tuesday shifting northwest Tuesday night. Winds
northwest becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots Wednesday and Wednesday
night.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BRO/CPB
NEAR TERM...KJP
SHORT TERM...BRO/CPB
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...KLW/CPB
MARINE...KLW/CPB