320
FXUS61 KLWX 020116
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
916 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper trough and associated cold front will move through the
area later tonight into tomorrow. High pressure will build over
the area later this week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The main line of thunderstorms that brought strong winds and
heavy rainfall to parts of the area earlier this evening has now
pushed south/east. The Flood Watch and Severe Thunderstorm Watch
have been cancelled.

As we continue through this evening, light to moderate
stratiform rain continues for a good portion of the the area
along and east of the Blue Ridge. A few thunderstorms with heavy
rainfall will be possible in Central VA this evening, however
with the loss of daytime heating we are not expecting additional
severe storms in our area.

The frontal boundary that fueled earlier convection has now
stalled along I-95 through Stafford, and stretches southwest
toward toward Staunton and along the Allegheny Front in SW VA.
This is going to help keep light showers through the night
across most of the area. Where winds go light there could be
some patchy fog. Muggy conditions as lows settle in the 60s to
low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Showers are still likely to be ongoing south of I-70 at 12Z Wed,
but should start progressing southward more rapidly through the
day and should have mostly exited the fcst area by 18Z, except
perhaps the southern tip of St. Mary`s County. After that, dry
air will filter in.

A reinforcing shortwave-trough will move across the area Thu
afternoon bringing a threat of showers or thunderstorms across
areas west of I-81. Dry Thu night into Fri just in time for the
Fourth of July.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures continue Friday
through Sunday. Heat and humidity returns Sunday night and
Monday and so does the shower and thunderstorm chances through
this period. A trough of low pressure will be the focal point of
any convection Sunday night and Monday morning. A cold front
that follows the trough will be the focal point of convection
Monday afternoon and evening. Highs Friday through Sunday will
be in the middle to upper 80s. Highs Monday should reach near 90
or the lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A stalled frontal boundary over the area tonight could result in
periods of low stratus and patchy ground fog. The greatest
chance for MVFR to possibly IFR conditions will be at CHO.

Conditions quickly improve after sunrise Wednesday morning,
with VFR conditions continuing through Thursday.

VFR conditions at all terminals Friday through Saturday night.
Winds northwest around 5 knots becoming light and variable
Friday into Friday night. Winds light becoming southeast 5 knots
Saturday and Saturday night.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions are possible across the middle and lower bay and
south of Cobb Island. While some thunderstorms continue this
evening, expect most of the activity to stay south of the local
waters.

Winds are forecast to remain below SCA levels Wednesday and
Thursday. A few thunderstorms are possible in the middle
Chesapeake Bay and lower Tidal Potomac Wednesday afternoon.
These could pose a threat to mariners from gusty winds and
lightning strikes. After that, dry conditions are expected
Wednesday night through Thursday.

No marine hazards Friday through Saturday night. Winds northwest 5
to 10 knots Friday and Friday night. Winds becoming southeast 5 to
10 knots Saturday and Saturday night.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ534-537-
     543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...KRR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...KRR/KLW
MARINE...KRR/KLW