869
FXUS61 KLWX 101908
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
308 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Spotty showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening
with more widespread chances expected overnight into early Friday
morning. Clearing out with lowering humidity Friday afternoon.
Additional shower and thunderstorm chances this weekend.


 &&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Intermittent showers & thunderstorms possible between
  Thursday evening and Saturday as a slow moving cold front
  tracks through the region.

- 2) Above normal temperatures and dry conditions expected Monday
and Tuesday; showers possible along a cold front by the middle of
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Intermittent showers & thunderstorms possible
between Thursday evening and Saturday as a slow moving cold
front tracks through the region.
So far any shower and thunderstorm activity has been pretty meager
east of the mountains early this afternoon given a subtle stable
layer aloft. It`s a mashup of SCT-OVC cloud cover as a result of a
cold front dropping south from Lake Erie and multiple pieces of
shortwave energy ejecting east northeast from central WV and the
south-central Ohio River Valley. Expect this activity to gradually
drift east and northeast this evening as the shortwave shunts
eastward and cold front drops south. The bulk of any shower activity
should hold off until near midnight and continue through the pre-
dawn hours of Friday morning. Shower activity will be relatively
light to moderate with even a few embedded thunderstorms mixed in.

The severe weather threat appears low, but not zero given CAPE
values hovering between 500-1500 j/kg and shear values around 30-40
kts. With a stronger piece of shortwave energy set to kick east out
of WV expect an uptick in thunderstorm chances mainly across central
VA and southern MD this evening where instability will be maximized
due to more sunshine. These areas could see spotty clusters of
thunderstorms with gusty winds as the primary threat along with
frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall. Not everyone will see
the rain this afternoon and evening with more scattered to
widespread showers expected later this evening and pre-dawn Friday
morning as the front drops through.

Highs today will range from the mid 80s along the PA/MD line to low
90s over southern MD and central VA (70S mountains). Lows tonight
will fall back into the low to mid 60s with upper 60s over central
VA and southern MD. Some fog is possible west of the Blue Ridge
although low clouds may be a bit more prevalent given the front
nearby.

Additional rain showers could track east through the region
Friday morning as the front sags to the south. Behind the front,
instability lingers as a shortwave trough builds over the Ohio
River Valley and begins to move through the region. This could
bring additional intermittent showers and thunderstorms through
the region late Friday and into Saturday as this system moves
through. All told, total rainfall accumulation over the next
48-72 hours could range between 0.5 inches to greater than 1
inch in areas that receive multiple rounds of these intermittent
showers/storms.

Highs through the weekend range in the mid-80s across most of the
area, with humidity remaining elevated as the cold front slowly
meanders to the south.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Above normal temperatures and dry conditions expected Monday
and Tuesday; showers possible along a cold front by the middle of
next week.

An upper level ridge is expected build overhead during the first
half of next week supporting warmer than normal temperatures and dry
conditions. The ridge starts breaking down during the second half of
the week as a shortwave-trough digs across the Great Lakes. A cold
front is forecast to cross the area next Thursday and will likely
bring a few showers or possible thunderstorms, but the probability
of severe wx remains too low.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected amongst the terminals through this
evening. Temporary reductions are possible at times (21-02z/5-9pm)
this evening due to spotty showers and thunderstorms. Highest
confidence for afternoon showers and storms appears to be from a
line south of CBE/MRB/IAD/DCA to BWI/MTN.

The coverage of showers and embedded thunderstorms likely increases
later this evening and overnight as the a ripple of energy ejects
east from the Ohio River Valley and cold front drops south from PA.
Expect showers to move in from the west between 3-6z/10pm-2am before
becoming more scattered to widespread across all terminals from 7z-
15/3am-11am Friday. Went will prevailing showers instead of Prob30s
based on consistency amongst the hi-res guidance along with radar
trends. Cigs will continue to bounce around with SCT-OVC mid and
high level cloud decks expected well into the overnight hours.

Beyond the showers and thunderstorms, not looking at a whole lot of
low clouds nor fog outside the mountains. MAV/MET guidance continues
to hold a high likelihood of low cigs/vsbys mainly west of Blue
Ridge heading into Friday morning. This will be something to monitor
in subsequent TAF cycles. FOr now opted in for low clouds and even a
little fog at both MRB/CHO although confidence is low. Any temporary
restrictions this evening into early Friday morning will give way to
VFR conditions Friday afternoon as brief dry air moves into the
region. A leftover shower or thunderstorm is possible from KCHO
south Friday afternoon and evening as the front stalls nearby.

Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible during
the afternoon/evening hours this weekend. This will lead to
temporary reductions amongst the terminals at times otherwise VFR
conditions will prevail. South to southeast winds Saturday will
switch to the west and southwest winds Sunday at less than 15 kts.
Fair weather conditions expected during the first half of next week.
Winds turn to the north and northwest Monday and Tuesday as VFR
conditions continue.


&&

.MARINE...
Showers and a few thunderstorms are anticipated later this evening
into tonight. A few Special Marine Warnings are possible, especially
toward southern MD. Winds shift to the west and northwest
tonight as a cold front crosses, then shift to north and east
through Friday as the front stalls to the south. Winds shift to
south and southeast on Saturday with southerly channeling
yielding Small Craft Advisory criteria winds in the afternoon.

West winds on Sunday shift to northerly on Monday, remaining below
SCA criteria each day. Showers and an isolated thunderstorm are
possible over the waters on both Saturday and Sunday, although SMWs
are not likely.

SCA conditions expected Monday into Tuesday on northerly winds.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tide levels remain normal over the next couple of days as
prevailing winds remain light. Looking towards late Saturday,
levels increase again ahead of a warm front moving through the
region on Sunday.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LFR/SRT
AVIATION...LFR/EST/SRT
MARINE...LFR/EST/SRT