212
FXUS61 KLWX 070114
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
914 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly settle southward toward the area
through Saturday, then meander across the Mid-Atlantic through
Monday. A stronger cold front will cross the area on Tuesday,
followed by high pressure Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Aside from a few showers/decaying thunderstorms, most areas have
dried out as the sun has set and we lost the instability that
drove the thunderstorms we had earlier this evening. A few
waves of light drizzle/showers may occur overnight, but chances
are generally AOB 30 percent for most areas. Chances do increase
by the early morning hours on Saturday, when a weak impulse of
shortwave energy pivots through the region.

Some patchy fog could develop if there are enough breaks in the
clouds overnight. Low temperatures will be in the 60s for most
areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The frontal will settle into the area on Saturday. A wave of low
pressure will likely move along the front accompanied by a broad
shortwave trough aloft. There is some spread in guidance
regarding precipitation timing and coverage, so future PoPs may
need to be raised. But there is some hint that fairly widespread
showers move across the area during the morning hours. Then
there may be a bit of a break until instability can build to
support additional showers and thunderstorms, which may be
rather scattered in nature. The greatest chance for this
redevelopment will be along and south of the front, where there
could also be a stronger storm with gusty winds. Highs should
reach the upper 70s to 80s, especially if there are breaks in
the clouds. Activity should push off to the south through the
evening along with the front. Additional showers could arrive
during the second half of the night ahead of the next wave.

This next wave will bring widespread showers and embedded
thunderstorms Sunday. The front will attempt to lift back north,
with some stronger thunderstorms possible near and south of the
boundary. Locally heavy rain along the boundary could also pose
an isolated flooding threat. The additional cloud cover will
likely hold temperatures in the 70s. Precipitation chances
should dwindle Sunday night as the wave moves to the east.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak wave of low pressure moves offshore early Monday, then a
frontal boundary over the OH Valley slowly sags south toward the
central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. The first half of Monday
looks dry as the area is in between systems, with building clouds
through the day. Highs Monday reach the low to mid 80s.

The most active weather period next week likely happens from Monday
night into Tuesday afternoon as the front moves into our area, then
a wave of low pressure develops along the front. The low remains
weak, though it does organize as it tracks northeast toward southern
NJ. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast to
develop, with some locally heavy rainfall possible. Additionally,
depending on the timing of when the low moves through there could be
a threat of strong to severe thunderstorms. There is a lot of
uncertainty still, but something to monitor in the days ahead.

A cold front sweeps through Tuesday night, bringing dry conditions
through the end of next week. Mid-level ridging builds toward the
region during the second half of next week, ushering in a period of
true summertime temperatures. Highs in the upper 80s Thursday reach
the low 90s or higher for Friday into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
For much of the area, any showers have pretty much ended with
sunset this evening. However, a few showers remain near CHO, and
perhaps even some thunder. Looking like this activity should
stay outside of the 10 mile ring, but could be close over the
next hour or so. Shower chances will continue to dwindle the
rest of the evening into the overnight. Depending on how much
clearing is able to occur, some patchy fog may develop late
tonight into early Saturday morning. For BWI and MTN, some MVFR
to near-IFR CIGs start to work in from the east. Unclear yet if
these make it all the way to those terminals, but will be quite
close. For now, leaving 1500 ft MVFR CIGs in the TAF, but could
potentially see it dropping lower. WIll have to re-evaluate with
the next TAF package.

Additional showers will likely move across the area Saturday
morning. There may be a break, then additional scattered showers
and thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon, mainly near
and south of an advancing front. Given questions about coverage,
have just included a PROB30 group for now, with this activity
likely moving south by early evening.

Widespread shower and embedded thunderstorms are forecast Sunday
with a wave of low pressure along the stalled front. Sub-VFR
ceilings are also possible along and north of the stalled front
which could last into Sunday night.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms are forecast to move across the
area Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. While conditions
remain VFR outside of convection, any shower/storm that moves over a
terminal could produce brief sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally sub-SCA conditions are expected through Saturday
night. Winds will shift to the north Saturday as a front sinks
through the area. Scattered thunderstorms may develop Saturday
afternoon and evening over the waters, with SMWs potentially
being needed as a result.

Southeast winds will increase Sunday as a wave of low pressure
develops. Advisories may be needed. Thunderstorms will be
possible as well.

Winds are forecast to remain below SCA levels for the start of next
week. Still, the weather pattern remains active with showers and
thunderstorms each day, and these could pose a threat to mariners
from gusty winds and lightning strikes.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A wave of low pressure along a stalled front will increase
onshore to southeast flow Sunday into Monday. Some locations
may approach minor flood levels during this time.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...CJL
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...ADS/CJL/KRR
MARINE...ADS/CJL/KRR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS