836
FXUS61 KLWX 161522
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1022 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A secondary cold front will cross the Mid-Atlantic through
tonight. A wave of low pressure will pass near or south of the
area Tuesday into Wednesday. Uncertainty is high late in the
week, though another area of low pressure could approach Friday
into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Strong cold/dry air advection is expected this afternoon. This,
coupled with pressure rises and increasing diurnal mixing will
result in a blustery day. Wind gusts of 40-50 mph were reported
over the higher ridges of western Grant and western Pendleton
Counties and in sporadic areas like the eastern West Virginia
Panhandle, higher elevations of the Catoctins, and in far
northeastern VA. This area of wind gusts will peak this
afternoon before gradually diminishing this evening (except over
the western Grant/western Pendleton County ridges where it will
persist through the night).

In addition to the wind, this afternoon will be very dry. Mainly
sprinkles or a brief rain shower will move over far western MD
and higher elevations of Grant County over the next few hours.
The dry conditions will result in an increased risk for rapid
fire spread. See the Fire Weather section below for more
details.

Based on collaboration with neighboring WFOs, leaned on climo
for these kinds of windy northwest flow setups. This results in
temperatures slightly above NBM, and dew points a few degrees
below NBM given favorable downsloping. Also increased winds in
the lower elevations given favorable profiles in BUFKIT.

The Wind Advisory was expanded further into the DC metro for
this afternoon when 45 to 50 mph gusts are most likely. There
was not a significant change to the forecast, but rather an
increase in confidence in a several hour period of borderline
Wind Advisory criteria gusts (46 mph is the lower threshold).

As mentioned earlier, wind gusts will gradually subside tonight.
In some of the typically windier areas, the wind may be slow to
subside given the continued cold/dry advection and pressure rises.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Previous discussion...
Monday will be another dry and breezy day. It may actually be
drier in terms of relative humidity, but the wind should be at
least several mph less than today.

A wave of low pressure over the Midwest will encroach on the
area late Monday night through Tuesday night. The track of this
low and the strength of a warm air advection band of precip
north of its track remain a bit uncertain. Some guidance only
has a tenth to quarter of an inch of QPF, with others in excess
of half an inch. This precip should fall in the form of rain,
though some snowflakes could mix in for the higher elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A frontal zone should be located across southern VA and NC Wednesday
with a weak wave of low pressure over the mid MS River Valley
expected to track rapidly across the Mid-Atlantic states Wed into
Thu bringing the risk of showers, particularly for areas west of the
Blue Ridge Mountains. There may be a break in the precip chances Thu
into Fri until a stronger area of low pressure tracks across the
lower Great Lks at the end of the week bringing renewed chances
of rain showers. Spread in guidance is very high late in the
week, both for temps and precip timing/magnitude.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Blustery conditions through Monday with a relative minimum
during the overnight hours. Gusts of 25 to 35 knots may level
off a bit before increasing again this afternoon into the early
evening as a secondary front surges through. Gusts to around 40
knots are most likely during this time (except for KCHO - about
10 kts less there). Monday will be breezy as well with 20-30
knot gusts likely. All of this is out of a west to northwest
direction.

High pressure building in Monday night will cause winds to
become much lighter. Precip ahead of an approaching low pressure
wave should spread over the area Tuesday resulting in sub-VFR.

For Wed/Thu, anticipate unsettled weather with lots of clouds
and precip chances and possible CIG restrictions. Winds should
be on the light side.

&&

.MARINE...
Blustery northwest winds expected. Gale conditions most likely
this afternoon, gradually subsiding into tonight. A few gale
gusts are possible Monday, but wind should generally be in the
solid/upper SCA range. Winds go light Monday night into Tuesday
as a wave of low pressure approaches from the west. This wave of
low pressure will bring rain chances to the waters mid week.

Light winds Wed-Thu may increase at the end of the week.
Unsettled weather is possible later in the week, but uncertainty
is high.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Very gusty winds expected the rest of the day. Frequent gusts
will range from around 35 mph across the central VA piedmont, to
40-45 mph across southern MD, to 45 to 50 mph across the
DC/Baltimore metros, northern and western MD, northwest VA, and
eastern WV (highest over the Alleghenies where 55 mph gusts are
likely). Combined with strong dry air advection, minimum
relative humidity values are expected to fall to critical ranges
this afternoon. Values in the teens are possible across central
VA, with 20-30 percent likely further north and west, and 30-50
percent near the PA border (highest over higher elevations
along/west of the Allegheny Front).

RH recoveries will be poor tonight, especially over higher
elevations where winds likely remain elevated (30-45 mph gusts).
Monday will be a bit drier but also a bit less windy. However,
near critical fire weather conditions are possible once again.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for DCZ001.
     Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for DCZ001.
MD...Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for MDZ008.
     Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for MDZ003>006-008-
     011-013-014-501>510.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM EST Monday
     for MDZ008.
     Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for MDZ013-014-
     016>018-503>506.
VA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for VAZ025>031-053-
     054-503>506-508.
     Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for VAZ025>031-
     036>040-050-051-053>057-501>508-526-527.
WV...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for WVZ050>053-055-
     501>506.
     Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for WVZ050>053-
     055-502-504-506.
MARINE...Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for ANZ530>533-537-
     539>541.
     Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ530.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM EST Monday
     for ANZ530>533-537-539>541.
     Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ534-543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ534-
     543.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ535-536-538-
     542.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Monday
     for ANZ535-536-538-542.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DHOF
NEAR TERM...KLW/DHOF
SHORT TERM...DHOF
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...LFR/KLW/DHOF
MARINE...LFR/KLW/DHOF
FIRE WEATHER...DHOF