620
FXUS61 KLWX 121531
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1031 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect a lull in precipitation through early afternoon as a
mid-level dry slot moves overhead. Another low pressure system
brings additional wintry precipitation late today through
tonight, mainly near and west of the Blue Ridge Mountains. A
cold front crosses the area Thursday afternoon bringing blustery
conditions. High pressure builds overhead Friday before yet
another low pressure brings precipitation chances to the area
for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MORNING UPDATE: Precipitation has largely come to an end across
the area with this first round of wintry weather. Some showers
remain over southern MD, but temps are just above freezing, so
likely in the form of rain, or even some flurries.

Some small changes to the forecast for later today, but largely,
things remain the same. No headline changes at this point, but
depending on how temperatures trend over the next few hours,
that may need to be reconsidered.

Light rain or freezing rain, depending on surface temperatures,
is expected to develop late today driven by warm air advection.
Guidance seems to have backed off on the amount of ice
accumulation tonight, with the higher elevs being at greatest
risk of experiencing significant icing. The onset of this
precipitation could have some wintry mix involved for areas
further east than the current winter headlines would suggest, so
will be monitoring latest temperature trends as this round of
precipitation approaches from the southwest.

Strong push of warm air will push temps above freezing overnight
everywhere including the mountains. Warmer air blowing over
snow covered ground will likely result in widespread areas of
fog with vsby 1SM or less. Dense Fog Advisories may be needed
for some areas tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Rain showers will be exiting the area during the first half of
the day Thu, by 18Z at the latest, but likely sooner than that.
Rain showers over the mountains will quickly change to snow
showers. It will turn milder with temperatures in the 50s and
become breezy/windy during the afternoon after frontal passage
with wind gusts as high as 30 mph, stronger at higher
elevations.

Turning much colder Thu night into Fri as high pressure builds
in.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Energy ahead of an upper shortwave arrives on Saturday, kicking off
a wet weekend of rain and snow for Saturday and Sunday. Rain appears
to be the dominant precip type for this system, with highs on
Saturday in the 40s to low 50s (and up to the mid 50s by Sunday
morning). Snow could mix in early Saturday before temperatures warm
up, and CAA kicks in behind the cold front Sunday, allowing for a
mix with/transition to snow primarily west of the Blue Ridge
by Sunday evening. Precip is expected to be winding down before sub-
freezing temps can reach the DC/Baltimore metro area, but some
flakes could mix in along/east of I-95 before precip ends completely
Sunday night.

The main concern with the weekend system is actually flooding. A
steady rain of about 1-1.25" after recent snow (and possibly
rapid snowmelt) could cause significant rises in small rivers and
creeks, especially in our western/mountainous zones that have
received several rounds of snow recently. WPC has our entire area
highlighted in a Marginal risk for Excessive Rainfall, and areas
along and west of the Blue Ridge are in a Slight risk.

Behind the system, strong NW winds are expected Sunday into Monday.
Sustained winds 15-20 mph are expected with gusts 30-40 mph
possible, and higher along the ridges. Winds gradually diminish on
Monday as high pressure builds in. Dry conditions are expected
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR to LIFR conditions are prevelant at this time, with
conditions expected to deteriorate once again this evening when
precipitaion arrives again. VLIFR conditions expected by this
afternoon and continuing through tonight with rain. This could
briefly start as freezing rain at MRB and CHO this afternoon,
but should quickly change over to plain rain and likely have
little impact on pavement. LLWS is also possible tonight ahead
of the actual passage of the cold front, which will occur early
Thursday.

Cigs lift to MVFR Thursday as rain showers exit. Frontal
passage expected during the afternoon with shifting winds to NW
and peak gusts to around 25 kt.

Rain and rain/snow mix move in on Saturday with the next system,
likely bringing sub-VFR conditions into Sunday. Snow could mix in
early Saturday and late Sunday but otherwise rain is expected to be
the dominant precip type (except maybe for MRB at times). Strong NW
flow arrives Sunday with gusts 20-25 kts (possibly 30 for MRB), with
the strongest winds expected Sunday night.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions expected Thu afternoon and night. We`ll be
issuing new SCA headlines by this afternoon.

SCAs will likely be needed starting Saturday night as southerly
winds increase ahead of an approaching cold front, and continue
through Sunday as winds turn NW behind the front.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST
     Thursday for MDZ001-501-502.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST
     Thursday for VAZ025>027-029.
     Ice Storm Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST
     Thursday for VAZ503-504-507-508.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST
     Thursday for WVZ050-055-502>504.
     Ice Storm Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST
     Thursday for WVZ501-505-506.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR/CJL
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...LFR/CJL/CAS
MARINE...LFR/CJL/CAS