260
FXUS61 KLWX 210813
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
313 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Rain chances return tonight into Saturday morning as an area of
low pressure and series of fronts cross the region. High
pressure briefly builds back into the area Sunday and Monday.
Another wave of low pressure and front look to cross the area
Tuesday into the middle part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

A few light radar returns have been observed early this
morning across central VA with only Culpeper airport reporting
rain this morning. These very light showers should exit the area
by daybreak. Most of the day, however, is expected to remain
dry under overcast skies.

Low pressure over Kansas early this morning is expected to track
rapildly eastward today crossing our area late tonight or early
Saturday. Light overrunning precip is expected to overspread the
area this evening, although far southern areas along and south
of I-64 may see some rain before the day ends. Rain continues
overnight ending Saturday morning. About a quarter to half inch
of rain is expected, particulary north of I-66. Temperatures
will remain generally steady in the low 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

Low pressure will be exiting out of the area Saurday morning
with rain ending by 18Z, perhaps sooner than that.

Weak high pressure will build into the area Sunday into Monday
with clear skies and above normal temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

A highly amplified split jet structure continues into next week. In
advance of the series of upstream waves, a longwave ridge crosses
the Eastern Seaboard on Monday. Eventually, a closed low across
the Central Plains lifts toward the Ohio Valley late Monday
into Tuesday morning. However, this feature does shear during
the process while feeling the influence of the ridge. As this
disturbance passes by to the north on Tuesday, the next system
of interest begins to take shape over the middle of the country.
An expansive longwave trough encompasses much of the Great
Plains region on Tuesday. Height falls associated with this
trough reach the East Coast by Wednesday night into Thanksgiving
Day. The model suite shows an array of solutions, particularly
on the timing fronts. Given this system is around 6 days out in
time, uncertainty will likely continue for the next couple of
days.

The surface pattern next week consists of high pressure along the
Eastern Seaboard for Monday. Eventually, this anticyclone edges
offshore as warm advection ensues during the subsequent day or
two. The pattern shift coupled with southwesterly flow aloft
will increase the chances of rain on Tuesday, and again on
Wednesday as the central U.S. system approaches from the west.
Continued south-southwesterly winds will make for a mild day on
Wednesday as highs rise well into the 60s (50s in the
mountains). A stronger cold front pushes through around
Thanksgiving Day leading to a bigger drop in temperatures.
Precipitation chances will depend on how quickly this front
makes it through the region.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

MVFR cigs early this morning are expected to improve to VFR
later today before dropping again tonight as rain arrives.
IFR/LIFR cigs are expected in rain tonight with vsby in the
2-4sm range. Cigs lift rapidly Saturday as clearing occurs.
Winds pick up slightly from the NW Saturday before dropping
off Saturday night.

High pressure will be in charge on Monday leading to VFR conditions
across the area. As this ridge exits offshore, some warm advection
rain moves into the picture for Tuesday. This may lead to some
restrictions at times. Initial northwesterly winds eventually give
way to southerlies on Tuesday. Afternoon gusts up to 15 to 20 knots
are possible.

&&

.MARINE...

Small Craft Advisories are possible Saturday in the wake of a
frontal passage. Winds diminish Sat night through Sunday, but
may increase again Sunday night in NW flow.

High pressure will support sub-advisory winds for Monday with north
to northwesterly gusts to around 10 knots. South to southeasterly
winds increase by Tuesday ahead of the next system. This may lead to
Small Craft Advisories across some of the waters.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...BRO
AVIATION...LFR/BRO
MARINE...LFR/BRO