807
FXUS61 KLWX 041812
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
212 PM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued from the DC metro
westward through 9 PM this evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Hot temperatures, high humidity, and severe thunderstorm
chances again today into Saturday.

- 2) Drier conditions anticipated over the second half of Labor  Day
weekend and early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot temperatures, high humidity, and severe
thunderstorm chances again today into Saturday.

Mid/upper impulse paired with a notable low-level theta-e
ridge/moisture plume is triggering scattered to numerous
thunderstorms over WV into western MD and VA. Expect this to
continue and congeal into one or more clusters as storms press
southeastward generally near and southwest of the Potomac River
through early this evening. The timing is much more in the
typical climo window compared to yesterday`s late evening event.
Damaging wind gusts are the main threat, though some hail is
possible especially in any semi-discrete/lead cells. Mid-level
lapse rates have lessened a bit but shear will increase to
around 40 kts by this evening which could compensate. Increased
flow and moderate to high MLCAPE (1500-2500 J/kg) and DCAPE
(900-1400 J/kg) will support a damaging wind risk.

Storms should gradually wane in intensity and coverage by late
evening, though continued height falls and the approach of a
surface front may continue at least spotty activity through much
of the night.

Notably cooler Sat with some showers or thunderstorms associated
with a disturbance aloft. There remains notable uncertainty wrt
coverage. Lower odds for SVR wx Sat with SPC only having the FA in
General Thunder. Some models much more bullish than others, with the
greatest likelihood of precip across the SW half of the FA. Highs
Sat in the 80s for most.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier conditions expected for the second half of
Labor Day weekend through early next week.

Sfc high pressure over the GL will track over the Mid-Atlantic Sun
into Mon, with accompanying mid-level dry air that will bring down
humidity and t-storm chances. Daily highs drop to the low 80s, along
with drier dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s. These conditions
likely persist through Tue as high pressure drifts south.

As high pressure dominates, expect temps to slowly creep back up to
the mid-to-upper 80s beginning Tue and Wed. Entering into the
midweek, broad upper-level ridging begins to build over the southern
Plains, with a deep trough forming to the north over Nova Scotia.
This will create a frontal boundary tracking across the East Coast
sometime during this period, potentially beginning Wed and into Thu.
This could create chances for a few showers or storms to form along
the front as it tracks through, along with increasing humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Additional storms with somewhat uncertain in eastern extent
through early evening. TEMPOs were introduced where confidence
is highest. Winds will remain NW through Sat.

Prevailing VFR conditions are anticipated at terminals Sun through
Tue. Nw`ly winds shift S`ly on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Another round of storms are anticipated most likely through this
evening which likely prompts SMWs. Otherwise, generally light
flow is expected into the upcoming weekend, though NW gusts
could approach SCA levels tonight into Sat.

Winds could approach SCA levels Sun evening before diminishing back
below thresholds by Mon morning. NW`ly winds shift S`ly on Tue.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DHOF/CPB/EST/SRT
AVIATION...DHOF/CPB/EST/SRT
MARINE...DHOF/CPB/EST/SRT