582
FXUS61 KLWX 221350
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
950 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move southward through the area this
morning. High pressure builds to the north through midweek as
the cold front stalls to our south. Another low pressure system
and associated cold front bring precipitation chances this
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of mid morning, a cold front stretches from northeast
Maryland through central Virginia. A few showers continue to
pass just south of Point Lookout. WNW winds in the wake of the
front are gusting to around 20 mph, but the overall window for
these higher gusts appears to be brief. While low and mid level
clouds are clearing, waves of cirrus will prevent a completely
sunny sky. Highs in the 70s to around 80 appear to be on track.

The aforementioned cold front will slowly drift south of the
area through tonight. The forecast has trended drier over the
past couple of days across central VA with the front progged to
stall further south. However, cannot rule out a stray shower in
central VA or far southern MD, especially tonight as a wave
passes. Lows will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will build in from the north Wednesday and
Thursday, resulting in dry weather. High temperatures will be
in the 70s to low 80s each day with those at higher elevations
staying in the 60s. Overnight lows drop into the 40s and 50s
both nights. RHs will fall into the 30% range each afternoon,
but the lack of wind and green-up should prevent any widespread
fire wx concerns.

Thursday night a warm front will approach from the south. Most
guidance keeps any showers out of the area til daybreak Friday.
Will continue to monitor.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
On Friday, a frontal boundary initially off to the south will lift
northward as a warm front across the Mid-Atlantic region. Not only
will this favor continued warm weather, but it also introduces
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. A southwesterly
flow aloft persists, accompanied by a series of weaker perturbations
within the jet. At this juncture, these particular features are on
the diffuse side and of lower predictability. However, forcing
should improve into Friday night and Saturday as an upstream
shortwave trough moves in from the Tennessee/Ohio valleys. This
favors an increasingly unsettled pattern heading into the first half
of the weekend.

Depending on the degree of instability in the atmosphere, a few
stronger thunderstorms are not out of the question on Saturday. The
cold front attendant to these height falls moves through the first
half of Saturday. Despite being post-frontal, some residual showers
are possible into Saturday afternoon/evening as the trough aloft
moves through. In the wake, a sprawling area of Canadian high
pressure moves in from the Great Lakes. This will make for a cooler
finish to the weekend and into early next week.

Through Saturday, forecast highs will be in the 70s to near 80
degrees before temperatures drop into Sunday/Monday. The dome of
high pressure is forecast to keep highs in the upper 60s to low 70s
on Sunday. Ensembles show some gradual uptick in temperatures into
Monday as return flow ensues. Before this occurs, expect a
relatively cool night on Sunday as widespread 40s are possible.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are likely to prevail through mid-week as high
pressure builds in. Winds are becoming WNW in the wake of a cold
front this morning before shifting easterly on Wednesday. Light
winds are expected, blowing less than 10 knots.

A warm front will slowly approach the area Thursday, though VFR
and mainly dry conditions are expected. Winds become southerly
behind the warm front.

Given an increase in shower and thunderstorm chances, sub-VFR
conditions are possible at times on Friday into portions of
Saturday. However, expect these restrictions to be intermittent and
driven by the passage of such storms. Initial southerly winds are
forecast to shift to west-northwesterly by Saturday evening behind a
cold front. Gusts up to 15 to 20 knots are possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will shift to northwesterly this morning in the wake of a
cold front moving over the waters. A few gusts may approach
advisory criteria in the wake of the front, but should not be
long- lasting. Winds are expected to remain below SCA criteria
through Thursday as high pressure builds to the north.

A warm front moves through on Friday afternoon which will favor an
uptick in southeasterly winds over the waters. Some southerly
channeling is expected which may bring winds close to advisory
levels. Increasing shower and thunderstorms chances emerge into
Friday night and Saturday. A cold front moves through Saturday
afternoon/evening which may warrant additional Small Craft
Advisories.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CPB
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...CPB
LONG TERM...BRO
AVIATION...ADS/BRO/CPB
MARINE...ADS/BRO/CPB