725
FXUS61 KLWX 231446
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
946 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will settle to the south today, bringing
continued dry conditions along with a gradual warmup. This high
pressure system moves offshore Monday with southerly winds in
the wake aiding in even warmer conditions this week. A mainly
dry cold front will push through the region on Tuesday, while a
potentially wetter system may impact the area later in the
week. Another frontal system approaches from the west by Friday
into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
After a relatively cool start to the day, today will feature a
continued warming trend. With winds shifting to mainly westerly,
some downsloping of the dry air should yield temperatures
several degrees higher compared to yesterday due to
compressional warming. Downsloping will also allow for drier air
to mix down to the surface from the low-levels of the
atmosphere. Given low winds and anteceding fairly wet conditions
due to early week rain/snowmelt, low fire wx concerns at this
time. Additionally, skies are expected to be mostly sunny with
some clouds eventually dropping down from Pennsylvania around
dusk. Forecast highs over the region largely range from the mid
40s to low 50s, locally in the 30s along the Allegheny Front.

Mid to high clouds continue to increase into the night,
accompanied by light winds as high pressure sticks around
another night. This maintains seasonable overnight lows with
widespread mid/upper 20s expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The upper pattern remains northern stream dominant entering the
new work week. Given a lack of moisture, the pattern is tending
to look mainly dry through mid-week. As surface high pressure
exits into the Atlantic, a return southerly flow ensues. As
850-mb temperatures rise another 4-5C, expect surface
temperatures to respond accordingly. The current forecast
package calls for widespread mid 50s, with some potential for
upper 50s in central Virginia, the Shenandoah Valley, and into
the Allegheny mountain valleys. This also starts the string of 4
days with above average temperatures. Skies should stay mostly
sunny before some clouds arrive from the north late in the day.
This comes with southerly breezes up to around 15 mph, locally
up to 25 mph in the mountains.

These winds remain somewhat elevated overnight, which combined
with the clouds will bring a milder night ahead. A vast majority
of the area can expect mid/upper 30s, with a few pockets near
freezing over the Allegheny ridgetops.

Ahead of an approaching shortwave trough and its associated
frontal system, skies will continue to cloud up on Tuesday. The
mentioned lack of moisture should largely limit any rain
potential. Areas closer to the Mason-Dixon Line have a 15 to 25
percent chance of seeing any measurable rainfall (perhaps 0.01
to 0.02 inches). Aside from this low end chance for
precipitation, Tuesday`s high temperature forecast calls for
upper 50s to mid 60s (warmest south of I-66). Compared to late
February climatology, this is around 8 to 13 degrees above
average. As a progressive cold front moves through, winds shift
from southwesterly to northwesterly during the late afternoon to
early evening. Expected clouds are to decrease into the night,
although some upslope aided stratus are possible over western
Maryland. Tuesday night`s lows will fall into the 30s, coolest
in the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will be nearly overhead by Wednesday, leading to dry
conditions with a mix of sun and clouds. Southerly flow will allow
temperatures to climb into the upper 50s to low 60s across the lower
elevations with mid 40s to low 50s across the higher terrain. Clouds
continue to increase overnight Wednesday as an area of low pressure
looks to cross the Mid-Atlantic by Thursday. Overnight temperatures
Wednesday night will fall into the low to mid 40s for most areas.
PoPs increase from west to east late Wednesday night into early
Thursday. The best PoPs will be on Thursday for the long-term
period, though QPF totals will be mainly beneficial given the setup.
Highs on Thursday will be a degree or two cooler than Wednesday
while remaining above normal for mid to late February.

Rain chances dwindle heading into Friday with high pressure centered
to the north influences the Mid-Atlantic. Highs for the afternoon
fall a degree or two cooler than Thursday while getting closer to
normal. Northwest winds will be slightly elevated to finish the
workweek. Another disturbance approaches from the northwest,
ushering in some PoPs across the far northwestern parts of the area
and remaining mostly dry further east. There is still some
uncertainty as to how dry places stay along and east of the Blue
Ridge especially.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Continued VFR conditions are expected owing to high pressure
across the area. Light winds are likely today before winds turn
southerly on Monday once this anticyclone exits the coast. Gusts
up to 15 to perhaps 20 knots are possible during the afternoon
hours. Clouds increase late Monday into Tuesday ahead of the
next weather maker. Most stay dry, but can`t rule out a spotty
rain shower across KMRB. Initial southwesterly winds give way to
northwesterlies behind the cold front on Tuesday
afternoon/evening.

VFR conditions are expected Wednesday with high pressure nearby and
winds remaining light out of the south to southwest. By Thursday,
precipitation approaches the terminals by early morning, leading to
a decrease in CIGs and VSBYs throughout the day before improving
later on.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure around the area has maintained light gradients and
thus weaker winds. This continues for the day before this ridge
pushes offshore on Monday. A return southerly flow ensues which
could cause some southern channeling effects over the wider
waters of the Chesapeake Bay. This is particularly the case late
Monday afternoon into the evening. A weak cold front pushes
across the waters on Tuesday evening with winds shifting from
southwesterly to northwesterly thereafter. Winds should stay
below advisory thresholds during this time.

Sub-SCA winds are expected Wednesday into Thursday with only a
slight increase Thursday. Rain will affect the local waterways on
Thursday with no significant impacts expected during this time.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BRO/CPB
NEAR TERM...BRO/CPB
SHORT TERM...BRO/CPB
LONG TERM...ADM
AVIATION...BRO/ADM/CPB
MARINE...BRO/ADM/CPB