762
FXUS61 KLWX 071905
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
305 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly settle southward toward the area through
today, then meander across the Mid-Atlantic through Monday. A
stronger cold front will cross the area on Tuesday night, followed
by high pressure Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
A shortwave trough aloft and pre-frontal surface front moved through
the area this morning, bringing showers and a few thunderstorms.
Northwesterly flow behind this initial trough passes has produced a
mix of sun and clouds. The main cold front over southeast PA early
this afternoon will sag south into our area through the evening.
Isolated showers along and ahead of the front are possible, mostly
across north/northeast MD and into northern VA. Coverage is expected
to be low and any shower/storm will be quick moving.

Early summer humidity in place as dew points hover in the upper 60s
to around 70F, and temps in the lower 80s. Dry conditions behind the
front this evening and for part of the night before showers begin
moving in from the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The main front dips south through the area tonight, though it is
expected to stall somewhere over central to southern VA. As this
happens, winds turn north to northeast and low clouds build in from
the east over our area. Showers begin increasing in coverage from
west to east late tonight into Sunday morning in response to
increased forcing for ascent from another shortwave trough aloft.
This first round of showers and possible a few embedded
thunderstorms moves across the area through late Sunday morning.

The stalled front could lift slightly north as a warm front, though
it is not expected to make much progress. There is a lot of
uncertainty where the front is located come Sunday afternoon, and
that will be critical to where heavy rainfall and/or strong to
severe thunderstorms develop.

A wave of low pressure is expected to develop and move across the
frontal boundary Sunday afternoon to Sunday evening. Where the low
crosses it will scour out the clouds along/east of its path, with a
couple of hours of sunshine leading to additional instability. Model
soundings indicate deep-layer westerly shear around 40 knots and
increasing SRH along the warm front. There will be plentiful
moisture to work with as dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s are
in place, and afternoon temps reach the upper 70s.

Again, the big question is where the frontal zone is tomorrow. At
this time, it is too early to say where the heaviest precip rainfall
occurs. A Flood Watch may be needed for portions of the area, though
that will be coordinated tonight with the surrounding WFOs as the
threat areas becomes better defined.

In terms of the severe threat, SPC has a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5)
of severe weather from along the Blue Ridge up to the DC Metro,
stretching to Annapolis and the Eastern Shore. Elsewhere, there is a
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5). Damaging wind gusts are likely to be
the main threat from any severe storms that develops. Depending on
where the surface low/front area, there will be a tornado threat
along the warm front where SRH is maximized. However, must stress
that this is a conditional threat until we know where the front and
low are going to be.

The upper trough and surface low pull east of the area Sunday night.
Much lower rain chances for Monday morning/afternoon as the area
remains in light south to southwest flow in a modified warm sector.
Sources of lift will be minimal, so not expecting a high coverage of
showers and thunderstorms until Monday night when another strong
trough approaches from the west. Highs Monday reach the upper 70s
to mid 80s as humid conditions persist.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An area of low pressure will develop along a slow-moving cold front
over central Virginia Tuesday. Additional showers and thunderstorms
will evolve along and east of the Blue Ridge Tuesday into early
Tuesday evening. High temperatures will be close to average and
reach the 80 degree mark in most places. As the low, front, and
associated humidity moves to the east overnight Tuesday into
Wednesday, high pressure will build in and remain in control
Wednesday through Thursday night. High temperatures each day will be
about 5 degrees higher than the previous day. The high is expected
to shift to the east on Friday; thus, bringing back another chance
for showers and thunderstorms late Friday into Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A front moves south through the area this afternoon, bringing some
showers and a thunderstorm or two. Coverage is expected to be low,
so do not have any TEMPO groups in the TAFs.

Low clouds build in from the east tonight into Sunday morning. MVFR
to possibly IFR conditions prevail until Sunday afternoon when a
wave of low pressure moves across the area. There is uncertainty
regarding when the strongest showers and thunderstorms develop, but
there will likely be several hours of impacts at all terminals. VFR
conditions Sunday night into Monday as the low pressure moves
offshore.

Special Marine Warnings may occur in stronger thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Otherwise, no marine hazards expected Tuesday
through Wednesday night. Winds southwest 5 to 10 knots, except for
gusts over 35 knots in thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday evening;
otherwise, winds becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots through Wednesday
night.

&&

.MARINE...
Several cold fronts and waves of low pressure are set to move across
the area through Monday. Winds are forecast to remain below SCA
levels through the start of the week, however near SCA gusts are
possible Sunday afternoon/evening due to a wave of low pressure
crossing near the waters. Additionally, heavy showers and
thunderstorms will pose a threat to mariners from strong gusty winds
and lighting strikes. A waterspout or two will be possible Sunday
afternoon to evening.



&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KRR
NEAR TERM...KRR
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...KRR/KLW
MARINE...KRR/KLW