091
FXUS61 KLWX 031402
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1002 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts north of the area today as a cold front
approaches from the west. The cold front will slowly move
through the area tonight before stalling to the south Friday
night.The frontal boundary lifts through the mid-atlantic on
Saturday, ahead of another cold front moving through on Sunday.
High pressure builds overhead next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

A convective line associated with a frontal boundary passing
into our region from the northwest from moderate to heavy rain
to areas along the the Allegheny Front and western Maryland.
Lightning from observed with this line with all wind gusts
remaining sub-severe due to level wedging. The strongest wind
gusts were observed along the high ridge tops as the line passed
through the mountains. The front has stalled over western MD in
a SW to NW orientation and will become the focused for continue
shower and thunderstorm development.




.Previous Discussion.

A warm front lifting north of the area today combined with
southerly flow from high pressure offshore, will lead to plenty
of warm and moist air in the forecast area. Additionally, a
cold front approaching from the west will create an environment
conducive to rain showers and possible severe thunderstorms.
Moderate CAPE, strong shear, and the frontal boundary
approaching during peak heating lead to possible strong to
severe thunderstorms. That being said, model soundings show
looping hodographs, due to wind shear,which may suppress
updraft development.Showers and a few thunderstorms continue
this evening and into the overnight as the cold front moves
through the forecast area.

High temperatures will be in the 70s to low 80s for most with
those at higher elevations staying in the upper 60s. Tonight,
low temperatures will be in the 50s to 60s across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A frontal boundary stalls south of the area on Friday, before
lifting through the forecast area as a warm front on Saturday.
With the frontal boundary nearby, daily shower and thunderstorm
chances are expected.

Due to the frontal boundary moving through the area Friday and
Saturday, there will likely be a large spread in temperatures
both days. There is still uncertainty regarding the temperature
forecast due to uncertainty on specific timing and location of
the frontal passage. For Friday, high temperatures will range
from low 60s along the MD/PA border to mid 80s in central VA. A
similar pattern continues on Saturday with high temperatures
ranging from low 60s to mid 80s from NE to SW across the area.
Overnight low temperatures will be in the 50s to 60s both
nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
While low pressure will be moving, the associated cold front will
trail to the southwest, slowly dropping through the Mid Atlantic.
Showers are likely, but some thunderstorms could also develop
depending on the amount of instability. While there is some
uncertainty on the amount of heating that will take place before
rain arrives, most areas should be in the 70s, with lower 80s
possible. The cold front should be southeast of the area by Monday
morning, but the lagging upper trough axis may cause some showers to
linger. Highs Monday fall back into the 50s and 60s.

Another trough will dig into the Great Lakes early next week,
sending a secondary cold front through the area Monday night into
Tuesday morning. Shower coverage may be limited with this front,
except in the upslope region of the Alleghenies, where snow is
possible. High pressure of Canadian origin will build into the area
behind this front as long wave troughing develops across eastern
North America. Tuesday will be windy with temperatures up to 15
degrees below normal. Many areas will likely drop below freezing
Tuesday night. As the high builds overhead Wednesday, winds will
lighten and temperatures will start to rebound.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

A line of showers and thunderstorms that passed through the
region has dissipated as it approached our TAF sites. No
restrictions were observed at MRB, but some light showers and
drizzle led to brief periods of MVFR and IFR conditions at the
I-95 corridor TAF locations. Ceilings should increase to VFR
conditions later this morning as drizzle and showers exit the
region.

.Previous Discussion.


Southerly winds this morning will user in moisture, leading to
low ceilings and flight restrictions. MVFR to IFR CIGs are
expected across the terminals through this morning. Rain showers
are possible, mainly at KMRB and KCHO, this morning before
showers and thunderstorms impact all terminals this afternoon. A
cold front moving through the forecast area will allow showers
and thunderstorms to continue overnight with sub-VFR conditions
expected. Southerly winds this morning shift to southwesterly in
the afternoon, gusting to 25 knots.

Rain showers continue on Friday with MVFR ceilings possible
across all terminals. Light winds are expected. MVFR conditions
are possible at KMRB, KMTN and KBWI with nearby rain showers
Saturday into Saturday evening.VFR conditions are expected at
KIAD, KDCA, and KCHO. Winds southeast becoming south 5 to 10
knots gusts 15 knots.

Sub-VFR ceilings may develop Sunday as a cold front drops into the
area. Showers are likely and there may be a few thunderstorms. Prior
to the front, southwest winds could gust to 25 kt before shifting to
the N/NW with its passage. It`s possible low ceilings linger into
Monday until winds become more westerly.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly winds this morning shift to southwesterly in the
afternoon. SCA conditions continue through this evening before
winds diminish overnight. Showers and thunderstorms moving
across the waters this afternoon and into the overnight, may
require SMWs.

Shower and thunderstorm chances continue Friday and Saturday as a
frontal boundary remains nearby. Winds are expected to stay
below SCA criteria, although SMWs are possible during storms.

SCA conditions are likely Sunday in southwest flow as well as in
northwest flow behind a cold front Sunday night. Showers and a few
thunderstorms are expected with the front. Winds may lighten for a
time Monday before strengthening again Monday night with a secondary
frontal passage.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Southerly winds are piling water anomalies around 1 foot above
normal throughout the bay. Annapolis, Havre De Grace, and Washington
SW Waterfront will be closest to minor flood stage this morning,
although all are forecast to remain below at this time. Water levels
should gradually drop over the next couple days as a front causes
shifting winds.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AVS
NEAR TERM...AVS/JMG
SHORT TERM...AVS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AVS/JMG
MARINE...AVS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...