516
FXUS61 KLWX 081851
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
151 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the region to start the weekend. A frontal
system with a better moisture approaches from the Ohio River Valley
Sunday, then cross the Mid-Atlantic Monday. Another cold front will
likely cross the region Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Dry airmass moving into the region as abundant sunshine prevails
this afternoon. Gusty northwest winds gust around 20 mph, with up to
30mph in the mountains. Some gusts of 15 to 20 mph linger into the
evening behind a second passing cold front. Above normal highs this
afternoon reach the upper 60s to mid 70s. Red Flag Warnings are in
effect for parts of the area. See Fire Weather section below for
additional details on elevated fire threat today and Saturday.

A slow, steady drop in temperatures this evening, with a sharper
drop in sheltered valleys possible late overnight as winds go light.
Overnight lows drop to the 40s, with near freezing along the
Allegheny Front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high over the Great Lakes quickly slides offshore Saturday
into Sunday, as upper ridging also quickly traverses the region. Dry
conditions continue Saturday in lighter wind flow, and still
abundant sunshine. Highs near normal in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Cooler air Saturday night drops lows to the 30s to low 40s.

A compact shortwave trough/upper low ejects from the mid Mississippi
River Valley to the Great Lakes on Sunday. A warm front lifts
northeast ahead of this system`s surface low Sunday, followed by its
cold front late Sunday night into Monday morning. Moisture looks to
better sourced with this system as it is connected to a stream of
tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Although the chance for
rain will be higher than with recent systems, it still looks
generally light in nature. Early projections are for a broad quarter
to half inch of rain (with a couple more tenths than that along and
west of the Alleghenies), though some areas will only get a couple
tenths of an inch. Cloudy skies and rain keep highs in the upper 50s
to low 60s again on Sunday. Light rain/showers continue into Sunday
night as the front slowly crosses the area. Milder overnight lows in
the 50s for most, with upper 40s in the highest elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
By Monday morning, a shortwave trough and its associated surface low
will be situated well to our north over far eastern Ontario/Quebec.
A weak cold front will trail to its south and move through the area
Monday morning. As this boundary progresses off to our south and
east, conditions should gradually clear out through the day, with
any morning clouds or showers giving way to sunny skies during the
afternoon. Temperatures on Monday will remain above normal, with
highs in the upper 60s to low 70s for most (50s mountains).

An additional shortwave will track across the Northeast/Southern
Canada Monday night into Tuesday morning, driving a reinforcing cold
front southward through the area. This front will have little to no
moisture to work with, but will lead to a noticeable decrease in
temperatures. Conditions will remain dry on both Tuesday and
Wednesday as high pressure builds to our north. Highs on Tuesday are
forecast to reach into the low-mid 60s for most, with upper 50s to
near 60 on Wednesday.

A rather progressive flow regime across the CONUS will allow the
next in a series of shortwave disturbances to approach the area by
Wednesday night. While forecast uncertainty does start to increase,
there appears to be at least a chance for some much needed rainfall
with this system Wednesday night into the day Thursday. High
temperatures on Thursday are forecast to reach into the 50s for most
(40s mountains).

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through Saturday night. Northwest winds
gusting around 20 knots this afternoon. Winds lessen this evening,
then turn north and pick up again for the first half of tonight,
gusts of 20-25 knots possible. Winds diminish quickly Saturday
afternoon, and turn northeast to east.

A cold front approaches the area Sunday, causing winds to turn
south. There will be a chance for showers Sunday afternoon into
Sunday night. Some sub-VFR conditions are possible Sunday night.

Some sub-VFR ceilings may linger into Monday morning, but
improvement back to VFR is expected by afternoon. VFR conditions
will continue through the day Tuesday. Winds are forecast to be out
of the west on Monday, northwest Monday night into Tuesday, and then
north Tuesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all the waters through
tonight. Northwest winds this afternoon are gusting around 15-20
knots, then expect a brief decrease in winds early this evening.
Winds turn north and increase significantly tonight as a secondary
cold front crosses the local waters. A few gusts to near gale force
can`t be ruled out over the wider/open waters this evening.

Winds gradually subside Saturday morning, dropping below SCA levels
by Saturday afternoon as high pressure builds. A warm front moves
from south to north across the waters Sunday, followed by a cold
front late Sunday night into early Monday morning. Winds likely
increase ahead of the front, which would prompt additional SCAs.
Rain showers likely accompany this frontal system, as well.

Winds are forecast to be out of the west on Monday, northwest Monday
night into Tuesday, and then north Tuesday night. Low-end SCA
conditions may be possible at times on both Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Northwest to north winds remain elevated tonight at around 15 to 20
mph, with higher gusts in the mountains. The breezy conditions and
continued dry advection will lead to rather gradual and poor RH
recovery the first half of the night for many areas. Locally
elevated fire weather conditions could persist for a portion of
tonight depending on the exact extent of mixing and drying into the
evening hours.

Winds remain elevated along and east of Interstate 95 through early
Saturday afternoon. Confidence has increased on a very dry airmass
moving into the area, likely dropping dew points to the 20s
areawide, with teens likely along the Blue Ridge and highest
mountains west of the Shenandaoh Valley. Especially along the
Western Shore in Maryland, winds will be gusting around 15-20mph
through around noon Saturday, before quickly diminishing in the mid
to late afternoon. This brief window of elevated fire weather
concern is being monitored for possible Elevated Fire Statement.

Of note, very low RH around 10 percent is possible above 2000 feet
due to abundant dry air a few thousand feet above the surface. Winds
will likely be less further west over the higher terrain since the
gradient will be weaker. Even as winds decrease late in the day, an
elevated fire danger will exist until widespread wetting rains
arrive Sunday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for DCZ001.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Saturday for MDZ008.
     Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for MDZ003>006-
     008-011-013-014-502>508.
VA...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for VAZ028-030-
     031-053-054-501-505-506-526.
WV...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for WVZ050>053-
     504.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Saturday for ANZ530-531-
     536-538-539.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST Saturday for ANZ532-533-
     537-540>542.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 PM EST
     Saturday for ANZ534-543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Saturday for ANZ535.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KRR
NEAR TERM...KRR
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...KJP
AVIATION...KJP/KRR
MARINE...KJP/KRR
FIRE WEATHER...KRR