815
FXUS61 KLWX 040051
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
851 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to push off the east coast through
Wednesday. It will also allow an area of low pressure to move
across the Carolinas Thursday and off the Mid Atlantic coast
Friday. Meanwhile, a frontal system will approach the region
from the northwest Friday and Saturday. This front may stall
near the area into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Evening update: No major changes have been made to the previous
forecast. Previous discussion follows...

High pressure is moving off the Carolina coast this afternoon
while upper level ridging builds overhead. An area of low
pressure is located over Florida. Satellite imagery shows the
thickest smoke aloft over the eastern half of the forecast area.
Smoke modeling suggests this plume slides to the east with the
ridge axis overnight. This modeling also suggests the greatest
chance for some smoke in the near surface layer is over the
mountains. Otherwise dry conditions and light winds are expected
through tonight. The moderating airmass will result in lows
ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Ridging continues to dominate the local weather Wednesday with
dry weather. There may be a few more clouds, but smoke aloft
may also be less dense. With the changing Thursday and Friday
forecast, Wednesday may be the warmest day of the week for a lot
of locations now. Highs will range from the mid 80s to around
90. If we don`t reach 90, it may be at least another week for
the next opportunity, which will start challenging the latest
first 90 degree reading since 2003 (June 24) in Washington and
Baltimore. Dew points will be creeping into the 60s, leading to
a muggier feel. Lows Wednesday night will be generally in the
lower to mid 60s as clouds increase.

The ridge will break down Thursday as a frontal zone and parent
trough approach from the northwest. This will allow the
southeastern low to lift northward into the Carolinas. The area
may largely be in between both systems, with only smaller
chances for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms over
southern and western portions of the forecast area. The increase
in cloud cover will likely limit temperatures to the lower to
mid 80s. Other than a low chance of a few lingering showers,
Thursday night will likely be dry and mild with lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An active weather pattern looks to set up by the end of this week
and likely persist through the start of next week. On Friday, our
area is sandwiched between a slowly approaching cold front from the
west, and a broad extratropical low pressure off the Carolina
coastline. The low moves offshore this weekend with no direct
impacts to our area. The cold front crosses the area Saturday, then
a very brief/weak surface high develops overhead. Another wave of
low pressure crosses the area Monday, with a strong cold front
passing through Monday night.

Overall, there is a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast each day - though Saturday and Monday look to be the most
active weather days. Sunday is forecast to be the driest day of the
period given we`ll be in post-frontal northerly winds most of the
day.

Abundant cloud cover keeps our temps near normal Friday through
Monday, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. There is no real
signal for well above normal warmth until well beyond the current
forecast. Mild overnight lows in the 60s, with some 50s west of the
Blue Ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions will be present through at least Thursday across
the entire region. Winds remain light and somewhat variable
through tonight, then more definitively out of the south
Wednesday. High altitude smoke from Canadian wildfires should
thin with time.

A few showers or thunderstorms may develop near MRB and CHO on
Thursday afternoon/evening, but those chances are still AOB 20
percent at this time. Sub-VFR ceilings may move into the area
Thursday night as low pressure passes to the southeast.

While there is a chance for some showers and thunderstorms
Friday, the greatest chance for impacts appears to be Saturday.
The front may be far enough south Sunday for dry conditions to
prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds should more predominantly become south to southeast by
this evening as high pressure moves off the coast. There may be
a few gusts around advisory criteria around the central bay
this evening, but should be short in duration, so no advisory
planned at this time.

Southerly flow will begin to increase in intensity by Wednesday.
Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Bay and Lower
Tidal Potomac tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening.

Low pressure will be moving into the Carolinas on Thursday.
While locally south to southeast winds should prevail,
confidence on additional advisories has decreased as the low
disrupts temperature contrasts and the strength of the southerly
flow.

Marginal southerly channeling is possible along the bay Friday
evening. A cold front will bring an increased chance of showers
and thunderstorms Saturday, along with a wind shift to the
northwest. Confidence is low regarding the strength of winds
over the weekend, with the current forecast sub-SCA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Wednesday to 1 AM EDT Thursday
     for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Wednesday to 1 AM EDT Thursday
     for ANZ530>534-537>543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS/KJP
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...ADS/KRR
MARINE...ADS/KRR/KJP