Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
261 FXUS61 KLWX 041812 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 212 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will progress offshore this weekend. A strong cold front will move through during the middle of next week. High pressure will build back in behind the cold front for the end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Very few clouds to be seen this afternoon with current temperatures in the 70s to low 80s. This is the result of a light S to SW flow this afternoon as high pressure to our north has shifted off the northeast coast. Clear skies and light to calm winds are expected overnight. Patchy fog may form once again during the late night hours. Low temperatures will be a couple degrees warmer than preceding nights, with upper 40s to mid 50s for most. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will remain offshore and upper ridging will hold strong aloft through Monday. Our stretch of dry weather will continue as a result, with mostly sunny skies each day and mostly clear skies each night. Southerly flow will keep temperatures above normal, with highs in the lower 80s for most. Low temperatures will generally be in the 50s. Patchy fog will continue to be possible each night, especially in sheltered river valleys. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A strong cold front approaches the area on Tuesday and while most areas remain dry during the day, a few showers could move across the Alleghenies by early evening. Ahead of the front, breezy southerly winds are likely to develop across the area with gusts around 20 to 25 mph. Tuesday is going to be very warm and above normal for mid October. Highs are forecast to reach the low to mid 80s, and if some downsloping winds occur west of the Blue Ridge (directly will need to be just east of south for this to happen) then we could see some temps reach the upper 80s in those areas. The Cumberland to Petersburg corridor seems to be the most favorable for this.Given the ongoing D2-3 (severe to extreme drought) in that area there could be some fire weather concerns to monitor. Rain chances increase Tuesday night, then the main front moves through the area on Wednesday. There continues to be a decreasing trend in QPF from the model guidance now only showing around a few tenths to half an inch of rain. Closer to normal highs Wednesday in the upper 60s to lower 70s. There is still timing uncertainties as to when the front moves through exactly, with the ECMWF being faster than most of the other guidance by about 12 hours. Regardless, a a surge of cold northerly winds usher in fall-like temperatures and dry conditions Wednesday night through the end of next week. Temps plummet Wednesday night to the 40s in most areas, with mid to upper 30s in the Alleghenies. Highs Thursday in the low to mid 60s, then widespread upper 30s to low 40s Thursday night. Frost is going to be possible in many areas west of the Blue Ridge as winds go light to calm. It is not out of the question the first freeze of the year occurs in some areas west of the Blue Ridge Thursday night. Highs Friday in the mid to upper 60s, though winds turn out of the east as a surface high over the Northeast quickly moves offshore. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Prevailing VFR conditions are expected at the terminals through Monday. Winds will be light out of the south to southeast during the daylight hours, before going calm overnight in most locations. Patchy fog may be possible each night, especially near MRB and CHO. Could even see some patchy fog further east tonight, potentially at IAD. VFR conditions are likely to prevail for the most part through the middle of next week. A cold front approaches the area on Tuesday and this will result in breezy south winds gusting to around 20 knots. The front moves through Wednesday, though showers and possible thunderstorm coverage could end up being low. Winds turn north and remain elevated Wednesday night. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA level southerly winds are expected over the waters each day through Monday. Winds will be the lightest today, at around 5 knots. A slight increase is expected Sunday afternoon into Monday with winds around 10 knots. Southerly channeling is likely to produce SCA conditions over most of the waters Tuesday afternoon to evening as a cold front approaches the region. The front moves through on Wednesday, possibly bringing some thunderstorms to the waters in the afternoon to early evening. SCA conditions are likely to start in the bay Wednesday afternoon, then spread across all the waters Wednesday night into Thursday as winds turn north behind the front. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Tidal anomalies at Annapolis remain somewhat elevated, so the higher of the two high tide cycles each day will continue to reach action stage in the coming days. No flooding is forecast anywhere for the foreseeable future. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJP NEAR TERM...CJL SHORT TERM...CJL/KJP LONG TERM...KRR AVIATION...CJL/KJP/KRR MARINE...CJL/KJP/KRR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CJL