819
FXUS61 KLWX 090040
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
840 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will center overhead this weekend before
progressing offshore again next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure remains anchored off the New England coastline
this evening, with a surface ridge extending further southwest
across the Mid-Atlantic. Aloft, heights are starting to rise as
upper ridging centered over the Ohio Valley starts to work in
from the west. Dry conditions are expected as a result
overnight, with just a few low clouds or some patchy fog
possible, especially near/west of the Blue Ridge. Winds will
remain light, and low temperatures will generally be in the
upper 50s and low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Not many changes to the short term. Ridging will remain in
place at the surface and aloft through the upcoming weekend.
Continued light onshore (east to southeast) flow will result in
a continuation of near to slightly below normal temperatures to
start the weekend, with a warming trend beginning on Sunday as
the high moves offshore.

Precipitation chances will be very low (less than 10 percent)
through the weekend with strong ridging overhead. However, some
patchy fog or low clouds can`t be ruled out late at night into
each morning due to the onshore flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure south of Long Island slowly meanders south and
east away from the coast at the start of next week. This is going to
maintain a stable marine layer over our area Monday and Tuesday,
with little to no rain chances continuing areawide. Some southerly
return flow into the Appalachians could produce a few showers in the
mountains on Tuesday. Aloft, a mid-level ridge in place across Mid-
Atlantic to Northeast will help keep conditions stable as highs
reach the upper 80s to low 90s.

Conditions become more active toward the middle of next week as the
ridge aloft collapses, allowing broad troughing to enter the region.
Additionally, the surface high moves well offshore, allowing
southerly flow to usher in higher moisture into the region. Rain
chances each day are at 40-50 percent. A cold front looks to cross
closer to week`s end, and this could provide a better chance for
more organized convection. There is currently no significant threat
for severe weather or flash flooding, but something to monitor as
Wed/Thu next week look to have the best chance for thunderstorms.
Hot and humid conditions return mid week as highs reach the 90s and
heat indices top out around 100F.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Aviation forecast remains on track with prevailing VFR
conditions through the weekend. Onshore flow could result in
some low clouds at times or perhaps some patchy fog during the
late night into morning hours each day, with generally MVFR
expected during bouts of restrictions (though patchy IFR can`t
be ruled out if enough moisture is present). Winds will be
east/southeast AOB 10 kts.

VFR and dry conditions are expected to prevail at the start of next
week. Lower clouds each morning could produce patchy areas of MVFR
CIGs, otherwise clouds remain at VFR levels.

&&

.MARINE...
Easterly flow will continue through Saturday, becoming
southeasterly Sunday. Gusts to near 20 knots are anticipated
especially later this afternoon and evening over the wider
waters of the Chesapeake Bay. Sub-SCA conditions are expected
beyond Saturday morning through Sunday.

Favorable marine conditions are likely to continue through the start
of next week. High pressure to our north/east maintains light
southeast to south winds at 5-10 knots. Southerly channeling is
possible in the Chesapeake Bay Tuesday afternoon/evening, and that
could bring wind gusts close to 20 kt during that time.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Elevated tidal anomalies look to continue through the weekend given
the upcoming full moon and onshore flow. Minor coastal flooding
is possible with high astronomical tides (especially at
Annapolis and perhaps Dahlgren/Alexandria) due to the Full Moon
on Saturday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for WVZ050>053-
     055-501>506.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ534-543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DHOF/CPB
NEAR TERM...KJP
SHORT TERM...DHOF/CPB
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...DHOF/CPB/KRR
MARINE...DHOF/CPB/KRR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX