Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
570 FXUS61 KLWX 040134 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 934 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will drop into the region late this evening and become nearly stationary over the region through early Saturday. The front will lift northward on Saturday as a warm front before a strong cold front passes through from the west on Sunday. A secondary cold front follows in the wake while tracking through early next week. Strong high pressure moves in by mid-week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Upstream showers have started to track through the area over the last couple of hours. However, they have all quickly weakened owing to a limited pool of instability. The 00Z RAP objective analysis shows residual MUCAPE across the area, but with also increasing inhibition. As such, echoes will continue to struggle as they move through the region. Forcing does improve through the overnight as a cold front moves in from the west. This may expand shower coverage over the Mid- Atlantic states. Most notably, the last several runs of the HRRR favors a marked uptick in convective intensity, particularly north of I-66. However, it does not have the most support from other solutions at this time. Will maintain shower chances through the overnight hours, accompanied by an isolated thunderstorm or two. Nighttime temperatures are likely to hold steady in the 50s to low 60s (mid 60s over far southern Maryland and along I-64). && .SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A cold front is expected to move into our region from the northwest early on Friday and stall over our region. This boundary will become the focus for shower and thunderstorm development through Saturday morning. Main uncertainty with the front is how far south the front will drop into our region before it becomes near stationary. A large gradient in high temperatures is likely on Friday with high temperatures north of the boundary not getting out of the 60s while high temps south of the front will likely rising up into the 70s and low 80s. The best chance for shower development will be in areas along and just north of the front due to overrunning precipitation. The front is forecast to lift back north of our region as a warm front on Saturday leading to the return of warm air advection. A period dry weather is likely Saturday afternoon before another round of precipitation is possible late Saturday evening to Sunday due to a cold frontal passage from the west. High temperatures are forecast to recover on Saturday with highs in the 70s to low 80s for most of the region. Areas in NE MD may remain cooler on the cold side of the front. The threat for thunderstorms and severe weather should remain low on Saturday as the cold front is forecast to pass through the region late Saturday into Sunday morning. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A cold front will cross the area Sunday afternoon triggering more showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be severe, east of Route 15. Showers will also lag behind north of the frontal zone and last through Sunday evening and may linger across far southern MD until Monday afternoon. A second stronger cold front will drop into the area late Monday night with gusty NW winds and upslope precipitation as an anomalous upper low crosses the northern Mid-Atlantic. 850T drop to -11C Tue bringing unseasonably very chilly air for early April. Sub-freezing temperatures are likely Wed and Thu mornings, in addition to mountain snow. Temps rebound some during the second half of next week, but remain below normal. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Some residual showers are possible during portions of the night, with MVFR ceilings settling over all terminals but CHO by daybreak on Friday. MVFR conditions are likely to continue through Friday with winds becoming light out of the north. VFR conditions are likely to return on Saturday for all terminals but the Baltimore metro airports with winds slowly shifting out of the south. BWI/MTN will likely become VFR late Saturday afternoon to early Sat evening. Showers may impact all terminals late Saturday into Sunday. Gusts winds up to 30 kt Sunday behind the front and showers persisting through Sunday evening. Second stronger cold front late Monday night and Tue will bring stronger winds up to 35 kt. && .MARINE... Wind gusts over the waters will slowly weaken through this evening with SubSCA conditions likely on Friday into Saturday. Small Craft Advisory level winds may return on Sunday. SCA conditions are likely Sunday with the potential for Special Marine Warnings. Strong SCA conditions Tue with potential for gales. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for ANZ534-537-543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BRO/JMG NEAR TERM...BRO/JMG SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...LFR AVIATION...LFR/BRO/JMG MARINE...LFR/JMG