Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
084 FXUS61 KLWX 040118 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 918 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure initially located overhead will shift offshore this weekend. A strong cold front will move through during the middle of next week. High pressure will build back in behind the cold front for the end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... A broad area of high pressure remains in place along the East Seaboard extending from New England southwestward down the spine of the Appalachians. This area of high pressure will bring continued dry conditions to the area through tonight. The 00Z IAD sounding depicted a fairly dry profile with much of the moisture confined to the 400-250 mb layer. This appears attached to high clouds which have since pushed off into southern Maryland. These should exit the forecast area within the next couple of hours. Clear skies and light to calm winds are expected tonight with lows in the 40s and lower 50s. Some patchy fog may be possible later tonight, especially near bodies of water (rivers/streams). && .SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will shift offshore this weekend as upper-level ridging strengthens overhead. The lingering influence of high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will result in continued dry conditions with sunny skies during the day and clear skies at night. As high pressure moves offshore, winds will turn out of the south which will lead to a gradual warming trend in both high and low temperatures. High temperatures on both Saturday and Sunday will be in the upper 70s to near 80, with lower 70s in the mountains. Low temperatures will be in the upper 40s to 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Next week is likely to start out very warm as the large surface high pulls offshore and a 590 dam mid-level ridge builds over the Mid- Atlantic and Northeast. Low-level flow turns south to southwest on Monday, and aided by subsidence aloft should allow highs to reach the low to mid 80s Monday and Tuesday. A strong cold front approaches the area from the west on Tuesday. Breezy conditions are likely to develop ahead of the front Tuesday afternoon, with some ensemble guidance indicating gusts of 20-25 mph are possible. The current NBM temps are probably too low Tuesday afternoon, especially west of the Blue Ridge and elevated valleys in the Alleghenies where downsloping south-southeast winds will lead to warmer temps. Would not be surprised if the Cumberland to Petersburg corridor sees temps reach the upper 80s. Given the ongoing D2-3 (severe to extreme drought) in that area, there could be some fire weather concerns to monitor. Showers reach the Alleghenies Tuesday night, then spread across the area on Wednesday as the front moves through. Depending on how much instability develops on Wednesday, there could be some thunderstorms that develop in the afternoon. The best chance for that looks to be south of US-50. Temps will be closer to normal on Wednesday in the 60s to mid 70s. A fall surge of cooler air arrives Thursday night behind the front as lows drop to the 40s to low 50s. The latest trend today in the extended guidance is for the high to quickly traverse the area, then shift offshore next weekend. This likely limits how cold we get given the high remains to our north, and winds turn east to southeast by Friday afternoon. Still, will need to monitor for possible frost in the Alleghenies Thursday night if winds go calm in the typically colder elevated valleys. Seasonable early October highs in the 60s to around 70F are expected for Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through the weekend, though patchy fog is possible especially near KCHO/KMRB during the early AM. Winds will generally be S/SE 5-10 kts or less, with bay/river breeze influences possible for the metro terminals in the PM. VFR conditions are expected for the start of next week as high pressure shifts offshore. Some showers return to the forecast on Tuesday, but coverage is expected to be low. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA level southerly winds are expected over the waters through this weekend with high pressure nearby. Winds will be lightest through Saturday before increasing slightly to around 10 knots on Sunday. High pressure shifts offshore at the start of next week bringing a return of southerly flow to the local waters. This could result in southerly channeling Monday evening that brings winds close to SCA levels in the middle Chesapeake Bay. On Tuesday, increasing pressure gradients over the area ahead of a strong cold front will lead to likely SCA conditions over most of the waters by Tuesday afternoon. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As high pressure builds southward, easterly winds at the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay have weakened. This has allowed water to drain out into the Atlantic Ocean. Current anomalies have fallen to around 0.75 to 1.00 feet. Such anomalies should continue to slowly drop over the next couple of days. As anomalies continue to decrease, tidal flooding is unlikely. It will be close at Annapolis for the next few tide cycles, however, and most locations will make it up into Action Stage. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DHOF/KJP NEAR TERM...BRO/DHOF/KJP SHORT TERM...DHOF/KJP LONG TERM...KRR AVIATION...DHOF/KJP/KRR MARINE...DHOF/KJP/KRR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX