330
FXUS61 KLWX 070106
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
906 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Severe Watch has expired as of 8pm. Monitoring showers and
thunderstorms moving into Alleghenies. Cannot rule out a rogue
stronger storm over next few hours.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1)) Dry and warm late Sunday and into Monday.

- 2) Hot and humid conditions for the second half of the week
  with daily thunderstorm chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and warm late Sunday and into Monday.

A front will slide to the south and southwest, stalling as it
moves. Limited shower activity expected. As a matter of fact,
most places north and east of the Virginia Piedmont will be dry
and remaining warm. Highs in the middle 80s to near 90 on
Sunday. Low temperatures Sunday night will likely fall into the
60s as a cold front presses further south.

Monday will be dry with high pressure building into the region.
Highs in the lower to middle 80s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot and humid conditions for the second half of
the week with daily thunderstorm chances.

After the relatively lower temperatures Monday and Tuesday, heat
will begin to build Wednesday as the surface high moves off the
coast. Ensemble temperature plots suggest Thursday through Saturday
will be the hottest days with temperatures potentially well into the
90s. The heat index may rise above 100 degrees in some areas as dew
points will be higher these days compared to some of our recent hot
days.

The higher theta-e airmass will arrive on Wednesday as well. Details
are still a little uncertain with how strong mid/upper level ridging
will be, and when exactly shortwaves may approach from the
northwest. In the end, there is some shower and thunderstorm
potential each day Wednesday through Saturday, even if it is
ultimately terrain-driven and limited in coverage. There may be some
severe weather risk given the heat and humidity, although it may be
isolated due to relatively weak shear (assuming a stronger trough
does not unfold). It`s possible a cold front and stronger jet streak
could approach at some point next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Winds becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots Sunday. Any isolated
heavy showers around IAD, DCA or CHO on Sunday could bring brief
MVFR conditions and gusts over 30 knots.

VFR is expected to prevail Monday into Tuesday.

Thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evenings of
Wednesday and Thursday. Winds likely remain 10 kt or less out of the
south or west.

&&

.MARINE...
MWSs may be warranted in the central and southern Chesapeake
Bay and much of the Potomac waters on Sunday should any
convection linger near the surface front.

As high pressure moves off the coast, southerly flow will prevail
Monday through Thursday. Wednesday may have the highest chance
for winds near advisory criteria. However, channeling events
could bring marginal advisory conditions each evening/night as
well.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/KLW/CPB
AVIATION...ADS/KLW
MARINE...ADS/KLW