405
FXUS61 KLWX 250808
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
308 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds over the area through Monday ahead of an
approaching cold front. The front is set to move through late Monday
night through Tuesday before high pressure returns midweek. A potent
low pressure system moves into the region from the southwest,
bringing widespread precipitation and colder temperatures for the
end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface high pressure builds over the southeast throughout the day
as a fast moving cold front approaches from the west. Cloud cover
increases from west to east throughout the day with dry conditions
persisting for most. The approaching frontal boundary brings the
return of precipitation chances for those along and west of the
Alleghenies in the afternoon and evening. Precipitation is
expected to be limited as the front quickly moves through, with
precipitation amounts staying below a tenth of an inch. High
temperatures will be in the mid 50s to low 60s across the area.

Precipitation chances spread further east overnight as a cold front
approaches from the west. Chance PoPs are expected along and east of
the Blue Ridge with likely PoPs expected further west. Most
precipitation will stay light with the exception of the Alleghenies
where precipitation totals will be the highest (around a quarter of
an inch). Overnight lows temperatures will be in the 40s for most
with urban areas staying in the low 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned cold front moves through the forecast area
Tuesday morning, before exiting off the east coast by Tuesday
evening. Conditions dry out areawide by Tuesday afternoon as cloud
cover decreases throughout the day. Surface high pressure builds in
from the west in the wake of the frontal boundary, before becoming
centered overhead on Wednesday.

High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s for
most with those along and west of the Alleghenies staying in the low
to mid 40s. Overnight low temperatures on Tuesday will be 10 to 20
degrees colder when compared to Monday night. Low temperatures will
be in the 20s to 30s across the area with metro areas staying in the
low 40s. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 50s for most
with highest elevations staying in the 40s. Overnight low
temperatures will be  in the upper 30s to 40s Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A prolonged period of broad upper troughing across the eastern CONUS
is likely to start at the end of this week, continue through the
weekend, and well into next week. Several strong mid-level
shortwaves and associated surface cold fronts will move across the
Mid-Atlantic, bringing periods of precipitation and well below
normal temperatures.

On Thursday, a wave of low pressure at the surface over the Middle
TN Valley moves east across the Central Apps and Mid-Atlantic.
Widespread showers are likely for Thanksgiving, with a mix of rain
and snow Thursday night in the Alleghenies as temperatures drop.
This weak system is quickly pushed out of the area by a strong cold
front late Thursday night. A period of upslope mountain snow ensues
in the Alleghenies Friday into Friday night that could result in
hazardous travel conditions for some areas.

Drier conditions for the weekend, though uncertainty exists this
late in the forecast regarding possible precipitation chances.
Ensemble trends continue to indicate an Arctic airmass moves into
the region this weekend, bringing very cold temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected at all terminals throughout the day as
high pressure shifts to our southeast. Flight conditions possibly
drop to sub-VFR Monday night and into Tuesday as a quick moving cold
front approaches and moves through the forecast area. Light to
moderate rain showers bring reduced cigs/vsbys late Monday night
into Tuesday with conditions drying out by Tuesday afternoon.
Surface high pressure builds over the area Wednesday, with cloudy
skies expected at all terminals.

Southerly winds on Monday shift to northeasterly Tuesday in the wake
of a frontal passage. Winds increase early Tuesday morning as the
front passes, with gusts 20 to 30 knots expected. Winds diminish
Tuesday night and shift to southerly on Wednesday, remaining
light.

Widespread rain showers and sub-VFR conditions are likely Thursday
into Thursday night as a wave of low pressure moves across the area.
VFR conditions return Friday morning, then northwest winds increase
Friday afternoon and gust to around 20 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly winds stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria today.
As a cold front approaches the waters tonight, southern
channeling may lead to increased wind speeds over the southern
waters. Winds increase as the front moves through Tuesday
morning, with SCA criteria winds likely. In the wake of the
frontal passage, winds shift to northwesterly Tuesday afternoon.
Winds gust 15 to 25 knots over the waters throughout the day
before diminishing by Wednesday morning. Southerly winds on
Wednesday are expected to stay below SCA criteria.

Thursday brings widespread rain showers and increasing winds across
the local waters. South winds around 10 knots Thursday morning turn
northwest and increase by late afternoon. A prolonged period of SCA
conditions is possible across all the waters from Thursday evening
through Saturday morning.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AVS
NEAR TERM...AVS
SHORT TERM...AVS
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...AVS/KRR
MARINE...AVS/KRR