979
FXUS61 KLWX 170135
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
835 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A second cold front will cross the mid-Atlantic tonight. A wave
of low pressure will pass near our area Tuesday into Wednesday.
There is moderate uncertainty in terms of a low pressure system
impacting us later this week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Winds have started to decrease in magnitude this evening, but
still remain gusty out of the northwest. Current gusts are
around 20-30 mph in most locations, and should continue to
slowly decrease through much of the remainder of the night. The
exception will be in the highest elevations of the Alleghenies
(western Pendleton and western Grant Counties), where a Wind
Advisory remains in effect through 10 AM tomorrow morning.

Cold advection will continue within northwesterly flow over the
course of the night. Temperatures will drop back into the 30s
for most, with 20s in the mountains. Wind chills are expected to
drop into the 20s by daybreak (teens in the mountains). Skies
should remain mostly clear, with a just a few clouds present
across northern Maryland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will build into the region Monday and Monday
night. Dry conditions expected through the period with a gusty
breeze persisting through the day Monday. Monday looks drier
than Sunday, but wind magnitudes may not be nearly as high as
Sunday in many places across the west and north. Therefore, a
fire weather threat may exist and could lead to an Special
Weather Statement, but not so much a Red Flag Warning.

A wave of low pressure is expected to quickly move near our
region late Monday night through Tuesday night. It will be fast
moving so any precipitation should be generally light to
occasionally moderate and may not add much help toward our
persistent drought conditions. Many places that do encounter
precipitation will receive rainfall. There are a few isolated
locations west of the Shenandoah Valley and along the higher
elevations of the Appalachians and Blue Ridge that could see a
mix of rain and snow or a wintry mix. Amounts would be light but
might just be enough to slow travel at elevations above 2500
feet in the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Rain should largely by gone Wednesday morning as the wave of low
pressure moves off the coast. In its wake, an east-west frontal zone
will be left behind. High pressure will be building east from the
Great Lakes and will eventually wedge down the Appalachians. Even
though precipitation chances Wednesday and Thursday will be minimal
(perhaps some drizzle), there will be plenty of cloud cover.
High temperatures will be below normal Wednesday, and suspect
guidance may be too quick in warming them up Thursday.

A split flow pattern will have a trough moving across the northern
Plains and a closed low ejecting out of the desert southwest. There
remains a lot of uncertainty on how these troughs will interact,
which will impact the next chance of rain. Ensemble guidance shows
large spreads in temperature and rain chances from Thursday night
through Saturday. That timing will likely be narrowed a bit, but
Friday is the best opportunity for rain as the northern stream
trough makes its closest approach. Assuming a low passes to the
west, the frontal zone will lift back northward and allow some
warmer air to move in Friday. However, exact forecast details are
likely to change. One thing more certain is that there should be
enough warm air for just rain, even in the mountains. It`s unclear
whether the front will push all the way through by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue at the terminals through Monday.

Winds have started to decrease in magnitude this evening.
Occasional gusts to 15-25 knots will remain possible within
northwesterly flow overnight. Monday will be breezy as well
with 20-30 knot gusts likely.

High pressure building in Monday night will cause winds to
become much lighter. Precip ahead of an approaching low pressure
wave should spread over the area Tuesday resulting in sub-VFR.

Uncertainty increases Wednesday through Friday as high pressure
builds to the north and a frontal zone potentially lingers near by.
Sub-VFR ceilings are possible in onshore flow. Precipitation will be
limited to possible drizzle Wednesday and Thursday, with higher rain
chances Friday ahead of the next low pressure system.

&&

.MARINE...
Northwesterly winds are starting to decrease this evening. Gale
conditions will persist through much of the night across the
widest waters of Chesapeake Bay, with Small Craft Advisory
conditions elsewhere.

A few gale gusts are possible Monday, but winds should
generally be in the upper SCA range. Winds go light Monday night
into Tuesday as a wave of low pressure approaches from the
west. This wave of low pressure will bring rain chances to the
waters mid week.

Wednesday through Thursday should have sub-SCA conditions as high
pressure builds to the north. An advisory may be needed Friday if a
warm front can lift north and southerly winds take hold.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Winds have decreased this evening and relative humidity values
are starting to climb. The earlier Red Flag Warning has been
cancelled as a result. That being said, winds will still gust to
around 15-30 mph overnight out of the northwest, and relative
humidity values will only rebound to around 50-60 percent.

Fire Weather concerns will persist through the day on Monday.
Winds will increase again after sunrise tomorrow, and will gust
to around 20-35 mph (highest further north, lowest further
south) out of the west to northwest through much of the day.
Relative humidity values will also drop sharply, reaching
minimum values ranging from near 35-40 percent across northern
Maryland to potentially the upper teens or lower 20s across
central Virginia. This combination of slightly lower, but still
gusty winds and low relative humidity values will result in an
increased threat for wildfire spread. Special Weather Statements
will likely need to be issued for much of the forecast area
tomorrow.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for MDZ008.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM EST Monday
     for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for WVZ501-505.
MARINE...Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for ANZ530>533-537-
     539>541.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM EST Monday
     for ANZ530>533-537-539>541.
     Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ534-543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ534-
     543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ535-536-538-
     542.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DHOF
NEAR TERM...KJP
SHORT TERM...KLW/DHOF
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/KLW/KJP
MARINE...ADS/KLW/KJP
FIRE WEATHER...KJP