218
FXUS61 KLWX 241830
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
230 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will settle over the Alleghenies tonight, then a
warm front approaches from the southwest Sunday. Below normal
temperatures continue through Memorial Day. Another system
across the southern United States may impact the area early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
With high pressure moving over the Alleghenies tonight,
favorable conditions for radiational cooling should develop.
Winds will diminish shortly after sunset and remain light/calm
overnight. Low Td`s in the low 30s show the "bottom ceiling"
across the Alleghenies, so have issued a Frost Advisory for this
area overnight where lows in the mid 30s are expected.
Elsewhere, chilly once again tonight as lows drop to the 40 to
around 50F. Some sheltered valleys east of the Alleghenies that
decouple could have localized frost as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
An area of transient high pressure will push eastward across the
region Sunday. This will keep Sunday dry, though high clouds
will increase through the day ahead of a shortwave trough and
associated weak warm front. This may bring a period of rather
isolated showers mainly south of US-50. Models have continued to
trend drier with this feature. The shortwave will move east
quickly Sunday night. Total QPF amounts with this feature likely
a few hundredths south of US-50, with maybe a tenth of an inch
in southern MD.

High pressure builds in quickly behind the shortwave Monday.
Dry conditions are forecast Memorial Day and for most of Monday
night.

Still looking at below normal highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s
Sunday into Memorial Day. Nighttime lows start to moderate, though
still chilly in the 40s west of the Blue Ridge and low/mid 50s to
the east.

The next weather system to impact our area begins to approach from
the TN/OH Valleys late Monday night, however this system has
continued to slow down so some uncertainties exist. Most
guidance now keeps the area dry until some time after sunrise
Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Precipitation chances increase throughout the day on Tuesday as a
surface low pressure system approaches from the Mississippi River
Valley. Canadian high pressure remaining to the north combined to
the proximity of the low pressure system will lead to below normal
temperatures and daily precipitation chances. High temperatures
Tuesday will be in the 60s and 70s with highs Wednesday in the 60s
for most with only those east of I-95 staying in the low 70s.
Precipitation chances peak Tuesday night through Wednesday morning,
with a warm front located nearby. Southwestern portions of the
forecast area are in an excessive rainfall outlook from WPC, with up
to 1.5" of precipitation forecast in that area.

Precipitation chances begin decreasing Wednesday afternoon and into
Thursday as the low pressure system is forecast to depart the area.
High temperatures Thursday and Friday will be in the 70s to low 80s
with those at higher elevations staying in the 60s,

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through Memorial Day. Northwest
winds gust around 20-25 knots this afternoon, then remain at or
below 10 knots Sunday and Monday. Cloud cover builds in Sunday
evening into Monday, though it is expected to be VFR at this
time. Cannot rule out a sub-VFR burst of rain in the vicinity
of CHO Sunday evening/night, but continues to look like a
moisture starved system in our area.

Winds remain out of the southeast Tuesday and Wednesday, with
gusts 10 to 15 knots each afternoon becoming calm overnight.
Sub-VFR conditions are expected both days as showers and
thunderstorms impact the terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories are in effect through this evening for
all the waters as one final surge of northwest winds brings
gusts around 20-25 knots. A few hours of gusts near 30 knots
are possible in the upper Chesapeake Bay this afternoon.

Winds quickly diminish tonight and remain below SCA levels
through the Memorial Day holiday. A few showers are possible
Sunday evening into Sunday night, but nothing hazardous is
expected at this time.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday
over the waters. Winds remain below SCA criteria both days.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tide levels are expected to remain slightly elevated at times
through the holiday weekend, even with steady offshore winds.
Sensitive locations likely reach Action Stage during overnight to
early morning high tide cycle each day. Winds are forecast to
slacken Sunday into Monday and that could result in some slight
water level rise, but still forecast to remain below flood stage.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008.
     Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for MDZ509.
VA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for VAZ503.
WV...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for WVZ501-505.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CPB
NEAR TERM...CPB
SHORT TERM...CPB
LONG TERM...AVS
AVIATION...AVS/CPB
MARINE...AVS/CPB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX