263
FXUS61 KLWX 070754
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
354 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A spotty shower or two will be over parts of the Chesapeake Bay
and Lower Tidal Potomac for another hour or two. Otherwise, no
changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Dry and seasonable conditions with lower humidity early
  this week.

- 2) Shower & thunderstorm chances return midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and seasonable conditions with lower humidity
early this week.

A weak and small jet streak in the upper levels, along with a
very weak disturbance rotating into the region from the north
may just be enough dynamics to keep a shower in spots over the
Chesapeake region and southern Maryland through daybreak.
Nothing severe, but just a shower in spots. Otherwise, high
pressure will build into the region through Tuesday. Lower
humidity, dry conditions and sunshine with light winds will be
expected during this period. The high moves to the western
Atlantic just offshore of the East Coast Tuesday night. This
will allow for a south to southwesterly flow to develop and
continue through Wednesday. Warmth and humidity will begin to
increase once again. High temperatures today will be in the low
80s, accompanied by overnight lows in the 50s and low 60s. High
temperatures Tuesday should reach the middle 80s, then into the
upper 80s by Wednesday.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Shower & thunderstorm chances return midweek.

Surface high pressure begins to slide offshore on Wednesday.
Temperatures & humidity increase somewhat during this time, with
temperatures reaching the upper 80s and lower 90s by Thursday.
Meanwhile, an upper-level trough centered over the Hudson Bay will
produce a stemming cold front that tracks across the East Coast
sometime mid-to-late week. Current guidance has widespread
precipitation potential pinpointed for Thursday afternoon and
evening as this frontal boundary tracks through. The 18z guidance
remains a bit uncertain regarding exact timing for this, as the
ECMWF is starting to slide later in the week. Regardless, showers &
thunderstorms could occur as this front slides offshore towards the
end of the week. The severe threat continues to look marginal right
now , but some model guidance is starting to show a possibility for
a couple of stronger storms given the increased heat & humidity at
this point combined with potential wind shear.

Temperatures drop again in the wake of the front late in the week,
with conditions becoming much drier looking towards the weekend as
high pressure moves in overhead.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions should persist through Wednesday night given the
general influence of high pressure over or near the region.
This high pressure does depart by Tuesday which yields a return
of south to southwesterly flow.

Showers & thunderstorms from an incoming cold front could bring
reduced conditions at terminals on Thursday. Winds gusting up to 20-
25 knots are possible throughout the day before diminishing
overnight. Conditions likely improve by Friday as southwesterly
winds shift northeasterly.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine hazards are expected through Wednesday. Light flow is
expected, although gusts could creep up to 10 to 15 knots at times.
Northeasterly winds today shift southerly Tuesday, remaining below
SCA levels.

SCAs are likely beginning Wednesday night through Thursday as a cold
front tracks over the region. Gusts up to 25 knots are possible,
with a few showers & thunderstorms possible over the waters
during this period. Winds diminish by Friday afternoon in the
wake of the front. Southwest winds shift northeasterly on
Friday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies remain elevated over the next several days due
to an onshore flow. Annapolis could reach minor tidal flooding a
few more times this week, other than early this morning during
high tide. Some other sensitive places could push Action stage.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
     MDZ014.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRO/KLW/CJL/SRT
AVIATION...KLW/CJL/SRT
MARINE...KLW/CJL/SRT