861
FXUS61 KLWX 041503
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1003 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions through Thursday as high pressure takes control.
A warm front will push north on Wednesday, followed by a strong
cold front. Gusty winds and lower humidity levels will evolve
through the period. These factors could contribute to an
elevated fire weather threat midweek. Widespread rain chances
return Friday into the upcoming weekend as an area of low
pressure and it`s associated fronts cross the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12Z IAD RAOB showed a very dry profile indicative of the airmass
we are in. No fire wx statements planned for today given lack of
overlap of low RH, but not quite strong enough winds today.
Previous discussion follows..

Today will be sunny with seasonable temperatures as high
pressure builds into the region. Winds will remain elevated
later this morning into this afternoon with daytime heating.
High temperatures will reach the upper 50s to middle 60s (cooler
in the mountains). Winds will remain out of the west and
northwest at 5 to 15 mph with gusts of 15 to 25 mph this
afternoon. Dry relative humidity 20 to 35 percent this
afternoon. The gusty winds and low humidity could lead to fire
weather concerns, especially west of the metro areas this
afternoon. One low factor would be winds not strong enough,
despite fuel moisture being available and humidity being low.

Mostly clear skies tonight with some high clouds as a warm front
pushes through the region. Overnight low temperatures tonight
will be in the 30s for most with only those in the valleys and
metro areas staying in the low 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Collaborated with neighbors and state partners regarding fire wx
potential tomorrow. Will be issued an SPS for enhanced fire
danger by midday for areas east of the Alleghenies towards Route
15. Previous discussion follows.

On Wednesday, a surface low pressure system tracks across the
Great Lakes with the associated warm front lifting north through
the forecast area throughout the day. This will yield breezy
conditions with southwest winds blowing 10 to 15 knots and
gusting 20 to 25 knots. Along the Alleghenies, wind gusts 25 to
25 knots with gusts up to 40 knots possible. Continuing dry
conditions leading to dry fuels combined with a dry air mass
yielding low RH values, conditions will raise concerns for fire
weather. Will continue to monitor at this point.

As winds turn more southerly and a warm front moves through,
temperatures warm a few degrees compared to Tuesday with highs in
the 60s to mid 70s. Higher elevations will stay in the upper 50s.
Overnight low temperatures will be in the 40s for most with those in
the Alleghenies dipping into the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure over the region quickly moves offshore over
the western Atlantic to start Friday. The first of a series of upper
troughs and cold fronts approaches the OH Valley to end the week.
Ahead of the front, southerly winds pick up Friday afternoon
bringing breezy conditions to the area. Gusts up to 25-30 mph are
possible, and up to 40 mph in the mountains. It will be noticeably
warmer as highs reach well into the mid to upper 60s.

Over the weekend, a series of shortwave troughs and cold fronts is
set to move across the Mid-Atlantic. The first cold front is
forecast to rapidly move across the Mid-Atlantic Saturday
morning/afternoon. This could bring a fast moving round of showers
to the area. There is likely to be little instability, though cannot
completely rule out a rumble of thunder or two. Temperatures are
still going to be warm, in the mid to upper 60s, possibly close to
70F in Central VA for Saturday afternoon.

A second, stronger upper trough moves across the region Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night. This system should induce the
development of a surface cyclone that tracks across the OH Valley
into PA, and drags another cold front through the Mid-Atlantic.
Shower activity looks to be limited with this system due to most of
the associated energy passing well to our north.

A cold airmass looks to settle across the region for the start of
next week. Much cooler and brisk conditions Monday, with highs in
the 40s to low 50s and winds gusting around 20 mph. Widespread
freezing temperatures are possible Monday night, and this could end
the growing season in the remaining areas along/east of I-95.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through Thursday as high pressure builds
nearby. High pressure will build from the southwest today with a
warm front expected to lift through the area tonight into
Wednesday. No precipitation is expected with the front nor much
in the way of cloud cover. The big story for aviation the next
few days will be the winds.

Winds will remain elevated today with 15 to 20 kt gusts during
the afternoon. Higher gusts can be found along the ridges and at
terminals near the water. Winds shift to southwesterly on
Wednesday and increase to blowing between 10 and 15 knots across
all terminals. Winds are expected to gust 20 to 30 knots
Wednesday afternoon.

VFR conditions look likely to prevail Friday into the weekend.
Strong southerly winds on Friday will produce gusts of 20-25 knots
at all terminals. A series of cold fronts will move across the area
over the weekend, bringing limited shower chances.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through midday today as
high pressure builds from the southwest. Winds drop below SCA
criteria tonight before increasing again on Wednesday. Southwest
winds gust 20 to 30 knots across the waters on Wednesday with
Small Craft Advisories likely.

Winds diminish on Thursday with northwest winds dropping below
criteria Thursday night. Hazardous marine conditions are likely on
Friday ahead of an approaching cold front. SCA conditions are
likely due to southerly winds gusting around 20-25 knots across
all the waters Friday afternoon into Friday night. Winds
diminish Saturday morning, but are forecast to be right around
SCA levels through Saturday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Relative humidity values likely fall into the 20 to 35 percent
range this afternoon, though by that time wind gusts should
generally be 15 to 20 mph and somewhat intermittent. Regardless,
elevated fire weather conditions are possible today given long
term dryness.

A very dry air mass will move into the region as high pressure
moves directly overhead. A strong thermal belt is likely to
develop over the higher elevations, leading to very poor
overnight recoveries on Wednesday morning in the midslopes and
on the ridgetops. Some sites may not recover above 40 percent,
and some guidance even shows substantially lower recoveries.
This dry air mixes down area-wide during the afternoon, and will
come with increased winds out of the southwest. Wind gusts are
expected to be around 20-30 mph, with isolated gusts close to 40
on the ridges. This, paired with afternoon RH values into the
upper 20s to low 30s and increasingly dry fuels could lead to a
more notable threat for the spread of wildfires on Wednesday.

Another day of low RH expected on Thursday, but winds will be on the
decrease throughout the day. So, the wind and RH may not line up at
the right time to yield a substantial threat for the spread of
wildfires.

A cold front will approach the region Friday before moving through
Friday night into Saturday. RH values increase ahead of this, and
wetting rains are becoming increasingly likely.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EST
NEAR TERM...KLW/CPB/EST
SHORT TERM...KLW/CPB
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...KLW/CPB/KRR
MARINE...KLW/CPB/KRR
FIRE WEATHER...CJL