240
FXUS61 KLWX 080800
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
400 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will move through the area today. High pressure
will build to our north on Thursday and Friday. A coastal low will
develop to our south and then move up the Eastern Seaboard this
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Showers continue to move across the area this morning in advance
of an approaching cold front. This front currently extends from
central PA southwestward through SW PA into central WV and is
making steady southeastward progress. The front should reach the
Allegheny Front just prior to daybreak, and will move through
the area from northwest to southeast over the course of the
morning. Showers should come to an end from west to east through
mid- morning, just in advance of the front. Winds will abruptly
shift from southerly to northwesterly behind the front, and
winds will gust to around 20-30 mph this afternoon.

Strong cold/dry advection will ensue behind the front this
afternoon into tonight. The front will be strong enough to cause
a temperature drop during the middle of the day, with many
locations likely to reach their daytime highs in the lower 70s
early this morning prior to the front`s passage. Temperatures
will hold in the mid 60s to near 70 behind the front as cold
advection aloft offsets daytime heating from the sun. Clouds
will gradually start to erode from northwest to southeast late
this morning into this afternoon, with most locations
experiencing at least some sunshine this afternoon (more
northwest, less southeast).

Strong cold advection will continue overnight tonight, with most
locations dropping back into the 40s and winds holding at
around 5-10 mph out of the north. The pressure gradient should
weaken just enough across western portions of the forecast area
for sheltered mountain valleys to decouple and go calm. That
should allow for frost to form in those locations late tonight.
Frost Advisories are in effect tonight for portions of the
Alleghenies and Potomac Highlands, where temperatures are
forecast to drop into the mid 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will build to our north Thursday into Friday.
This will result in sunny skies during the day and clear skies
at night. Temperatures will be the coolest of the season thus
far, with daytime highs only reaching into the 60s (50s
mountains).

A surface ridge will strengthen over our area to the southwest
of the high pressure center tomorrow night. This should enable
most locations to decouple. With clear skies and calm winds this
will set the stage for ideal radiational cooling conditions.
Temperatures will drop into the 30s to the north and west of
I-95, with most of those locations likely having frost. Freeze
Watches have been issued for the Alleghenies, Potomac Highlands,
and much of the Shenandoah Valley, where confidence is highest
for sub-freezing temperatures tomorrow night. Frost Advisories
will likely eventually be needed further east.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
For the extended period, the longwave pattern across the continent
remains of high amplitude, but also of high uncertainty. While the
global guidance has a decent handle on a deep trough over the
western U.S. and ridge across the Southern Plains, the same cannot
be said for areas downstream.

Within a split flow regime, the models have begun trending toward
more interactions between the two streams this weekend. Most
notably, a number of the 18Z/12Z deterministic models favor a closed
low barreling from the Great Lakes toward the Mid-Atlantic this
weekend. At the same time, a cut-off upper low is expected to
meander off the southeastern U.S. coast. This southern stream
feature is likely to lift northward in time, but with any
interactions still uncertain given such a complex setup. Until an
upstream system can influence this array of features, a meandering
upper low is likely to persist into early next week. Whatever does
materialize should gradually drift offshore by Tuesday.

Looking at the surface, high pressure remains in charge over Quebec
into the Canadian Maritime provinces. At the same time, ensembles
are fairly consistent in the development of a deep cyclone off the
southeastern U.S. to Carolina coast. This is likely aided by sitting
over the warm Gulf Stream waters. The path this low pressure system
takes on during its northward approach will dictate the impacts
across the Mid-Atlantic region.

Below average temperatures are likely through the weekend and into
early next week. The combination of Canadian high pressure to the
north and coastal low pressure to the south will favor a lengthy
period of northerly to easterly flow. Daily highs should remain in
the 60s with overnight lows in the 40s to mid 50s. Rainfall chances
are generally confined to areas along and east of I-95, and
generally capped at 20 to 30 percent. There is certainly room for
this to go up and expand westward depending on the low track. Stay
tuned and check back at weather.gov/lwx for the latest.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Showers continue to move across the area early this morning as a
cold front approaches from the northwest. Conditions remain VFR at
the moment, but ceilings will likely lower to MVFR for a few hours
just prior to daybreak and persist through much of the morning.
IFR ceilings are looking less and less likely. Showers will
come to an end from west to east this morning and a strong cold
front will move through shortly thereafter. Winds will shift
from out of the south to light out of the west or southwest, and
then abruptly to out of the northwest over a few hour period
this morning as the cold front moves through. Northwesterly
gusts of 20 to 25 knots appear likely this afternoon as ceilings
gradually improve back to VFR.

VFR conditions will continue tonight through Thursday and Friday.
Winds will be out of the north tonight, northeast tomorrow, go light
or calm tomorrow night, and then become east to southeasterly on
Friday.

While conditions start off VFR this weekend, expect some reduced
ceilings to impact the eastern terminals by Sunday, if not sooner.
Of course this is all dependent on the track of a coastal low
developing off the southeastern U.S. Restrictions would be more
likely on Sunday if rain showers are able to pivot back toward the I-
95 corridor. Expect mainly northeasterly winds with increasing gusts
by Sunday. For the D.C. and Baltimore terminals, gusts up to 20 to
25 knots are possible, perhaps higher.

&&

.MARINE...
Low-end Small Craft Advisory conditions are ongoing over the Bay
within southerly flow. Winds will abruptly shift to out of the
northwest this morning as a cold front moves through. Gusts of 20 to
30 knots may be possible at times today into tonight within north to
northwesterly flow. Winds will finally decrease to sub-SCA levels
around mid-morning tomorrow. Sub-SCA level conditions are expected
within northeasterly flow tomorrow afternoon, and then within
easterly flow on Friday.

Prevailing winds this weekend will be out of the northeast as high
pressure over Quebec is bounded by low pressure off the southeastern
U.S. coast. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed sometime
Saturday, but especially on Sunday. Depending on the strength and
position of coastal low pressure, gales would be possible over the
southern-most waters. The current forecast package calls for 30 to
40 knot northeasterly gusts by Sunday afternoon/evening.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Anomalies will be on the decrease this afternoon into Thursday as
northwesterly winds increase behind a cold front which will move
through this morning. Anomalies will rapidly rebound later
Thursday into Friday as northerly winds begin to decrease and
turn easterly. Coastal flooding appears possible Friday within
onshore flow. While most locations will likely only reach Action
or Minor Flood Stage, Annapolis may potentially make a run at
Moderate Flood stage with the high tide Friday evening.
Additional coastal flooding may be possible this weekend as a
coastal low develops to our south and moves up the Eastern
Seaboard.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for MDZ008.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ008.
     Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ501-509-
     510.
     Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning
     for MDZ501-502-509-510.
VA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ503-504.
     Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning
     for VAZ025>027-029-503-504.
WV...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for WVZ501>503-
     505-506.
     Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning
     for WVZ050-055-501>506.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to midnight EDT
     tonight for ANZ535-536.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJP
NEAR TERM...KJP
SHORT TERM...KJP
LONG TERM...BRO
AVIATION...BRO/KJP
MARINE...BRO/KJP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJP