902
FXUS61 KLWX 200724
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
324 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will stall to the south today before lifting as a
warm front on Monday. A low pressure system tracks across the
Great Lakes on Monday with the associated cold front swinging
through the mid-atlantic Monday night into Tuesday. High
pressure builds to the north on Wednesday ahead of a nearby
front bringing precipitation chances at the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 07Z, the cold front is draped across the Potomac. This
will continue pushing south through the morning. No
precipitation with this front aside from a few upslope rain
showers. Main change will be the winds become northwest behind
the front.

Today, sfc high pressure will build across the SE-US and Great
Lakes. This will cause the aforementioned cold front to push
back north before stalling over portions of central VA. In turn,
this will bring the potential for a few rain showers generally
west of the Blue Ridge. Soundings are not the most favorable for
severe weather. If anything, a rumble of thunder is most
likely, hence the general thunder outlook from SPC. Cannot rule
out some small hail given low freezing levels. Otherwise, today
will be another warm day with most areas in the 70s to low 80s
(60s in the mtns). Lows fall back into the 50s tonight with
clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
To start the workweek, a low pressure system will move into the
Great Lakes. This will bring the cold/stationary front back
north as a warm front Monday. Dry conditions are expected Monday
with high temps in the 70s to low 80s again, but clouds will be
rather frequent. It may take a little longer for the front to
clear NE MD, so temps may hang in the 60s up there. Precipitation
chances increase Monday evening into the overnight hours as the
cold front approaches from the west. Not looking at much QPF
with this system, with amounts generally less than a quarter of
an inch. Low temperatures will be in the 50s to low 60s Monday
night.

On Tuesday, the cold front will continue pushing southeast into
central VA and southern MD. Any remaining shower chances will be
in this area. Another warm day with high temps in the upper 70s
to low 80s. Cannot rule out some showers lingering near the
front into Tuesday night. Tuesday night will be the coolest of
the short term, with 40s west of the Blue Ridge/50s to the east.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The middle to latter portions of next week will feature above
average heights aloft and continued mild temperatures. On the
synoptic scale, a mean southwesterly flow persists which is
accompanied by a myriad of weak impulses. The overall flow remains
on the weak side, although some more impactful shortwaves could near
the region by next weekend. However, model spread is rather high
during this evolving pattern, so it remains to be seen if any of
these impact the local area.

At the surface, a brief period of high pressure is expected over the
region during the middle of the week. An earlier frontal zone across
the Carolinas is expected to slowly gain latitude in time.
Eventually this system begins to impact the area by Thursday and
Friday with renewed rain chances. Depending on the evolution of
upstream features, another cold front could move toward the area by
the early portions of next weekend. However, uncertainty is still
pretty high. Overall, expect continued above normal temperatures
along with an uptick in rain chances. Daily highs should punch into
the 70s most days.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Lighter winds are expected through daybreak as a weak cold
front pushes through the forecast area. Winds shift to
northwesterly behind the front overnight. With high pressure
shifting to the north today, the northerly winds will become
easterly throughout the day. VFR conditions are expected across
all terminals today.

On Monday, winds shift to southeasterly resulting in increased
moisture and low level clouds. With primarily VFR conditions
expected, MVFR ceilings are possible. A cold front sagging south
through the area on Tuesday could produce scattered
showers/thunderstorms, though the highest coverage is likely to
be south of most of the terminals. Will have to see for any
impacts at CHO. Otherwise, VFR conditions are likely to prevail
throughout Tuesday.

VFR conditions are expected on Wednesday given high pressure in
place. A warm front approaching from the south will gradually
increase rain chances into Thursday and beyond. Some brief
restrictions cannot be ruled out as this occurs. Winds will mainly
be out of the south to southeast.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory conditions continue through 5 AM for the
middle portions of the bay, where the wind shift will be later
to arrive. Behind the front, winds become northwesterly. Some
marginal SCA gusts could occur behind the front through the
morning, but confidence is low. May be best handled with an MWS
given brief nature. Winds shift to northerly and then
northeasterly through the day, before becoming
east/southeasterly overnight. On Monday, SCA criteria winds are
possible as winds channel in southeasterly flow. Winds shift to
southerly Monday night and into Tuesday, with SCA criteria winds
continuing in the southern portions of the Chesapeake Bay.

Favorable marine conditions possible for the middle of next week,
though gusts could approach 15 knots Tuesday afternoon. A cold front
sagging south through the waters through the day on Tuesday could
produce scattered showers and thunderstorms. Any strong storm could
pose a localized hazard to boaters. The front pushes south of the
area Wednesday morning as winds turn north, then east behind the
front on Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ533-534-537-543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CPB
NEAR TERM...CPB
SHORT TERM...CPB
LONG TERM...BRO
AVIATION...BRO/CPB
MARINE...BRO/CPB