Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
717 FXUS64 KLUB 172334 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 634 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025 - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast across the Caprock and Rolling Plains today. - Daily chances for storms will continue through most of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025 Current radar imagery shows showers that lingered through this morning are beginning to dissipate. However, precipitation chances are not done for the day. Shower and thunderstorm chances will return later this afternoon through the evening. Upper level ridging will remain stagnant over the region through today. Subsidence from the upper ridging should prevent convective development, however with current water vapor imagery indicating a monsoonal moisture plume over the region and southerly surface upslope winds in response to a lee side trough, we can expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop over higher terrain once convective temperatures have been reached and track into our region. Any storms that do develop are expected to remain sub-severe but could see short periods of localized heavy rainfall with PWAT values between 1.5 to 1.75 inches. Southerly surface flow and mostly sunny skies today will keep temperatures warm in the lower to mid 90s on the Caprock and upper 90s off the Caprock. Mild temperatures expected tonight in the upper 60s on the Caprock and low to mid 70s off the Caprock. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue overnight into the early hours Monday morning with models indicating storms developing in the panhandle before tracking south to southeast into northern portions of our region. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025 No big changes to the long term forecast with warm temperatures and storm chances expected. The upper ridging will remain overhead through Monday, however a potent upper trough developing over the Pacific Northwest will begin to pull the ridging to the west of our region and should reach the southern Rockies by Wednesday. Convective chances continue Monday and Tuesday with residual monsoonal moisture, southerly surface flow, and warm convective temperatures being reached. A cold front is progged to track through the region Wednesday effectively shifting winds to the north, however temperatures will drop below average, but only by a few degrees with most of the region still reaching the 90s through the latter half of the week. The mid to upper levels will begin to gradually dry out Wednesday as the upper ridging over the southern Rockies amplifies, however storms are possible Wednesday following the FROPA. As the atmosphere continues to dry out towards the end of the week, precipitation chances decrease with only slight chances remain over southern portions of the Rolling Plains Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 632 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025 Convection has decreased significantly with the terminals currently free of convection. There is a low chance for -TSRA to affect terminals, mostly in the vicinity, through 03Z. Confidence is far too low for inclusion in this TAF cycle. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...51