699
FXUS64 KLUB 110657
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
157 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 155 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

 - A High Wind event and extreme fire danger are expected Friday.

 - Critical fire weather and breezy to windy conditions will
   affect the South Plains on Wednesday.

 - Fire weather concerns remain front and center throughout the
   remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

The forecast will be underneath nearly zonal flow between ridging
over the lower Mississippi Valley and the next low off the southern
California coast. A subtle short wave trough will move through this
flow which will help keep surface winds veered to west-southwest
which in turn will keep very dry air in place across all but the far
eastern counties. Flow off the deck is not terribly fast, but mixing
will be sufficient this morning to see an uptick in wind speeds mid
to late morning while afternoon winds will be supported by a
tightening surface pressure gradient to the south of a southward
moving cold front. Have bumped wind speeds up from the NBM mean
toward the confluence of its 75th percentile and MOS average. The
increased downslope component relative to yesterday and
compressional warming ahead of the cold front should result in
fairly robust warming off the Caprock in particular and have trended
today`s highs toward the warm side of MOS. Relatively mild and quiet
weather is expected tonight. Winds will remain from the west to
southwest but should settle to near 10 mph with sunset.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Warm, dry, and breezy to windy conditions in addition to fire
weather concerns continue to be the theme of the long term forecast
package as a series of upper level shortwave troughs pass overhead
through the week. The forecast period starts out with a shortwave H5
trough passing through the Texas Panhandle with an associated +80kt
jet streak passing just south of the FA. Meanwhile, a surface trough
will continue to track through the Southern Plains as a Pacific
front begins to pass through the FA Wednesday morning. This will
lead to strong west winds across the region through Wednesday
evening, with speeds around 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.
Strongest wind speeds near or at Wind Advisory level look to be
confined across portions of the southern South Plains, closer to
where the H7 and H8 wind maxima`s are positioned. With these higher
wind speeds and drying conditions, areas of patchy blowing dust will
be possible across portions of the southern South Plains. Along with
these strong west winds, rising height values and clear skies will
allow for temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to low 80s during
the afternoon. Which in combination with increasing ERC values, low
relative humidity values, and 20 foot wind speeds up to 30 mph will
lead to critical fire weather conditions across much of the Caprock.
A Fire Weather Watch is in effect from noon to 10 PM on Wednesday.
Wind speeds calm slightly as we head into Thursday as the surface
low ejects east. However, breezy southwesterly winds are still
expected to redevelop on Thursday as surface troughing in the lee of
the Rockies develops and we see the pressure gradient begin to
tighten across the Panhandle as the low begins to deepen. With
similar temperatures and dry conditions in place, elevated to
critical fire weather concerns will be possible once again.
Especially across our two most western column of counties where
higher wind speed may be found.

The high wind potential for Friday still remains on track and
continues to increase in confidence this morning as models continue
to project an amplified low tracking through the region. By late
Thursday night we will begin to see the upper level trough move in
from the desert southwest, with the +110kt jet streak creeping into
portions of the Big Bend Country. Both deterministic and ensembles
project this upper level trough and associated strong jet streak to
set up right over the FA by Friday afternoon in addition to the
deepening surface low passing to our north, increasing the potential
for strong wind speeds across the region. Currently, wind speeds
reflected by the NBM continue to reflect High Wind Warning criteria
with wind speeds up to 40 to 45 mph being output and gusts to 60
mph. Given the run to run similarities over the past few days,
continuing with the same High Wind Warning solution, confidence
continues to grow in the likelihood of this event. Currently NBM
probabilities depict a 75% probability of exceedance of High Wind
Warning thresholds by Friday afternoon for areas across the Caprock
and about a 50% probability of exceedance for areas off the
Caprock. With these higher wind speeds and critically dry
conditions, areas of blowing dust will also be likely which may lead
to poor air quality and low visibilities at time. As the associated
Pacific Front moves in Friday morning, not only will it bring these
higher wind speeds but it will allow for a decent drop in daytime
temperatures, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s across the
Caprock. Areas off the Caprock will likely see daytime highs
slightly warmer in the 70s as the front passes through during peak
heating hours. Although temperatures will be slightly cooler,
critically dry conditions in place and strong wind speeds will allow
for extreme fire weather conditions across much of the Caprock on
Friday afternoon. It is important to heed to local fire restrictions
and avoid activities that may cause a spark.

The warmer and drier trend continues through the weekend, as a low
amplitude shortwave trough passes through Saturday. Lingering mid-
level clouds should help keep highs on Saturday cooler before the
warming trend begins Sunday into early next week as upper level
ridging begins to move back overhead.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

VFR conditions to continue. West-southwest winds off the deck
strong enough at KCDS to result in LLWS there tonight to mid-
morning. Stronger winds aloft mix to the surface mid-morning and
will increase wind speeds until near sunset this evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 155 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Have issued a Red Flag Warning for this afternoon for the southern
South Plains basically in-line with those areas which received
little to no precipitation with Sunday`s storm and that are located
in TFS`s depiction of the 75th-89th percentile category. Have
trended wind speeds toward MOS which will result in breezy
conditions. Meanwhile single digit RH values are expected. The
combination results in an extended period of RFTI values near 4,
which for the aforementioned ERC assessment suggests a Red Flag
Warning is in order.

A Fire Weather Watch will remain in effect for Wednesday as that
part of the forecast remains intact. So, too, does the potential for
extremely critical concerns with Friday`s wind storm and elevated to
critical conditions for much of the remainder of the forecast
period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for TXZ021>024-027>031-033>044.

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ033>036-039>043.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...07