096
FXUS64 KLUB 141948
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
248 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Dry and quiet conditions are expected to continue Thursday with
   temperatures slightly cooler thanks to an early morning front.

 - Temperatures will remain above average this weekend into early
   next week.

 - Low storm chances will return to areas off the Caprock Sunday
   through Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Water vapor imagery early this afternoon shows the upper level
trough centered over the Intermountain West as an upper level ridge
remains centered east of the FA over the ArkLaTx region. Wind speeds
have ramped up over the last few hours with gusts across the Caprock
around 40 to 45 mph. Winds will begin to diminish slightly after
sunset, where they will still remain breezy which should help keep
overnight lows on the mild side once again in the 60s with some
locations across the far SW TX Panhandle in the low to mid 50s
behind a passing FROPA. The trough is expected to track into the
High Plains through the overnight period, meanwhile the surface low
over the South Plains tracks northeastward into portions of the High
Plains through tomorrow afternoon. As a result, the weak cold front
that was previously mentioned will begin to push through the region
early tomorrow morning which will allow for a slight reprieve in the
record breaking heat with post frontal winds out of the north
through the late morning. This "cooldown" will not be much
unfortunately, with a lee surface trough expected to develop by the
afternoon, allowing northerly winds to back out of the southwest
through the afternoon. Similar to today, mid to high level clouds
will likely remain overhead through at least the early afternoon for
most with notable moisture present from the H5 to H3 levels on
forecast soundings. Expect a wide range of daytime highs tomorrow,
with the coolest temperatures on the Caprock in the upper 70s to
mid 80s while areas off the Caprock see temperatures in the mid 80s
to lower 90s. Overall, the warm and drier conditions will continue
through the short term period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

After a brief period of largely zonal flow aloft on Friday, the
upper air pattern is progged to re-amplify over the weekend as broad
mid/upper level troughing deepens over the western half of the
CONUS. The trough axis will remain centered near the Four Corners
throughout this period, which will result in a continuation of
generally southwesterly flow aloft locally through early next week.
Despite a return to upper level southwesterlies, persistent surface
troughing over SE CO and NE NM and the associated continuation of a
dry westerly flow component in the low levels will limit our ability
to see much in the way of low level moisture return. A few upper
level shortwave disturbances within the broader troughing aloft are
still progged to eject into the central plains states on Sunday and
Monday, which will likely result in some thunderstorm development
along the dryline both Sun-Mon afternoon and evening. Deterministic
consensus places the dryline across the eastern Rolling Plains,
or east of our area entirely, with ensemble solutions a bit more
optimistic in the dryline ending up a bit farther west. Given the
ensemble spread and uncertainty in the track/timing of the upper
level waves, will maintain low mentionable PoPs Sun-Mon for areas
off the Caprock for the time being. Tuesday and beyond, flow aloft
is progged to become more zonal with dry conditions favored for
the middle of next week. Temperatures are expected to remain
generally above average throughout the extended forecast period,
but with highs comfortably below record levels.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Breezy west winds for CDS, PVW, and LBB through late evening.
Otherwise, VFR conditions for the next 24 hours.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>023-027>029-
033>035-039>041.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...26