882
FXUS64 KLUB 281835
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
135 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 130 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

 - Very warm overnight low temperatures tonight off the Caprock.

 - Best rain chances are Monday and Monday night when some heavy
   rainfall will be possible

 - Showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast for much of
   the forecast area Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

This afternoon the commonly discussed monsoonal moisture plume
extends from around El Paso County northeastward into the South
Plains. This moisture has been responsible for the humid conditions
dewpoints in the 60s on the Caprock and the 70s off the Caprock and
PWS of over 1.50 inches) and "lower" high temperatures we have been
experiencing lately.

All of this moisture combined with the mid level low to our NW, the
mid level high to our SE and the slow mid level flow will continue
to allow for storms to pop up and then fall back down with outflows
triggering new storms around the decayed storm. In general we can
expect similar weather and impacts as we saw yesterday...pop up
thunderstorms that will stay sub-severe but could have strong wind
gusts and locally heavy rainfall with them. Right now CAMs suggest
that the much of the area will stay dry due to influences from the mid
level and surface high to our east, but in these conditions it won`t
take much to trigger a summer time thunderstorm or two especially
out west. Therefore, have maintained below mentionable POPs through
00Z then 10-152% through 06Z. Tomorrow, the weak high pressure to
our east expands further west suppressing convection activity and
increasing temperatures area wide.

Tonight temperatures will run slightly above normal with lows close to
80 in Stonewall county. High temperatures tomorrow will be in the mid
to upper 90s similar to today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Upper level short wave energy diving into a trough located over
south-central Canada at the beginning of the long term period Sunday
evening will sharpen the pre-existing trough from the western Great
Lakes down to the mid-Mississippi Valley by Monday evening. This
sharpening of the upper flow will drive a surface trough into the
forecast area which should then serve as the focus for scattered to
numerous shower and thunderstorm development Monday afternoon and
evening. Weak flow aloft and weak shear profiles combined with rich,
deep moisture point to a heavy rainfall threat during this period.
Precip chances peak during this window as upper level ridging shifts
eastward and becomes centered over the central third of the CONUS at
least until the end of the week. However, this looks to be a more
like a monsoonal setup as mid level moisture trapped beneath the
ridge and keeping a connection to its source region along the
Pacific coast of Mexico. This will keep precip chances going mainly
afternoon to overnight period and temperatures at or a bit below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

VFR conditions expected through at least tomorrow morning.
Isolated TS is possible near all terminals this afternoon and
evening but probability of direct terminal impact is much too low
for specific TAF mention at this time. Wind shear looks possible
at KLBB between 08Z and 09Z with WS010/21045KT.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...28