Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
818 FXUS64 KLUB 151103 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 503 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 502 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 - Beautiful weather shaping up for Sunday as dry and mild conditions prevail. - Dry, very warm, and windy conditions are expected Tuesday, with wildfire concerns for areas that received minimal rainfall. - Low-end windy conditions are forecast to last into Wednesday and Thursday, along with renewed fire weather concerns each day. && .SHORT TERM... Today through tonight) Issued at 1122 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026 Water vapor imagery as of 10 PM CST shows the upper level trough translating through the ArkLaTx region with all showers and thunderstorms associated with this system off to our east. As this system continues to depart overnight, the upper level ridge to our west will shift eastward into the region by Sunday. As a result quiet weather is expected to take place overnight into Sunday as northwest flow aloft prevails. Tonight, expect northerly winds to prevail as skies remain partly clear with overnight lows dipping into the 30s and 40s. Sunday looks to be a pleasant day as heights along with thickness values increase as the ridge axis moves directly overhead. Skies are expected to remain clear, despite the plentiful sunshine and increased geopotential height values, temperatures will remain similar to what we saw Saturday. This will be in part to the upslope component to the wind through the afternoon, before winds begin to veer out of the southwest during the late afternoon as the surface high shifts south and a lee cyclone develops across southeastern CO. As a result of the developing surface low, winds will likely become breezy briefly across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle with speeds up to 20 MPH possible. The exception will be for places off the Caprock, where winds will likely remain northerly through evening until we see the surface high exit completely. Sunday night, expect overnight lows to increase a few degrees from the previous night as southerly winds keep temperatures on the warmer side in the upper 30s to mid 40s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1122 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026 There is an increasing potential for a high wind event across portions of the Caprock this Tuesday, with low-end windy conditions lasting through Thursday. At the beginning of the period, the mid/upper-levels will remain amplified, with a shortwave ridge shifting eastward over the central U.S. ahead of an intensifying shortwave trough digging into the Gulf of Santa Catalina. The onset of negative geopotential height tendencies aloft will generate leeward pressure falls across the southern Great Plains, with southwesterly winds becoming breezy Monday afternoon. A surface trough will be draped across the CWA in a north-south-oriented manner and connect to a surface low in eastern CO, with the moist sector remaining east of the Caprock Escarpment. High temperatures are forecast to warm into the upper 70s to perhaps even the lower 80s for some locales in the Rolling Plains, as 850 mb temperatures rise up to 18-20 deg C. The leading edge of the cirrus banding should arrive before dusk Monday, with the high-level cloud deck continuing to thicken during the nighttime hours into Tuesday. The southwesterly breeze will remain intact throughout the overnight hours, resulting in a mild temperatures Tuesday morning. The southern-stream shortwave trough previously emerging over SoCal will eject northeastward towards the Four Corners during the early morning hours Tuesday. Significant intensification of the jet streaks will occur as another shortwave trough digs southeastward into the Pacific Northwest, resulting in the phasing of the jetlets throughout the day. As the shortwave trough begins to eject over the central Rocky Mountains, it will become negatively-tilted, with a 300 mb jet streak between 160-170 kt; a 500 mb jet streak between 100-110 kt; and a 700 mb jet streak near 60 kt, translating through its base while becoming increasingly elongated with longitude as the phasing completes. Cyclogenesis of a 984-986 mb surface low will occur in the north-central Great Plains and generate a strong, isallobaric response beneath steepening isallohypses. The surface trough previously anchored along the edge of the Caprock will have also transitioned into a dryline as it shifts eastward into the Rolling Plains by late Tuesday morning. Only a sliver of the CWA should be within the moist sector, as the dryline is forecast to slosh east of the 100th before sunset Tuesday. Advisory-level winds are forecast to develop across most of the Caprock by Tuesday afternoon, with the potential for a high wind event across the far southwestern TX PH. It is possible that wind gusts exceed 60 mph across the latter area, as the intense mountain waves generate rotors that will propagate east-northeastward into the CWA and mix down the high-momentum flow aloft. The strongest winds should be confined to the northwestern zones due to the CWA being positioned beneath the right exit-region of the jet streaks aloft, with low-end windy conditions occurring farther east into the Rolling Plains. Blowing dust is almost a certainty, and an official mention has been maintained with this forecast package. Winds were raised from the NBM, with a 50-percent weighting applied to the NBM 90th percentile, which is within the upper-bounds of the statistical guidance and essentially matches the NBM 5.0. The wind gust factor was adjusted accordingly, and capped at 55 kt, or 65 mph. Wildfire concerns will arise Tuesday, primarily for areas that received little rainfall from the recent event, with the greatest potential for the rapid growth and spread of fires situated across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle, which saw little in the way of rain this past Friday. Thick cirrus will continue advecting over the CWA Tuesday due to precipitation occurring over the southern Rocky Mountains, and the presence of the cirrus will curtail high-end fire weather conditions from developing across the drier areas while also affecting relative humidity within the boundary-layer. Adjustments to dewpoints (and therefore, RH) have been withheld with this prognostication. At least low-end windy conditions are forecast to continue through the middle of the week, as the jet streaks will transition into a quasi-zonal state following a modulation of the meridional waveguide over the Great Basin. Flow will remain amplified as a result, with cyclogenesis persisting across the western High Plains. Temperatures will be a bit cooler mid-week, as the Pacific cold front will have moved through W TX Wednesday morning. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible through Thursday. The broadened shortwave trough is forecast to finally eject eastward into the MS River Valley by the end of the week, with mild and benign weather arriving by next weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 502 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 While there is some uncertainty with the duration of MVFR CIGs at CDS, latest satellite trends suggest CIGs should return to VFR around 13Z. VFR conditions will otherwise prevail at the terminals. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...51