981
FXUS64 KLUB 050515
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1215 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

 - Elevated fire weather conditions will develop across portions of the
   Caprock Tuesday afternoon.

 - A cold front will stall across the Rolling Plains late Tuesday
   morning, with cooler temperatures to follow Wednesday and Thursday.

 - A light freeze/frost will be possible across the far southwestern
   Texas Panhandle early Thursday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday morning)
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

In the mid/upper-levels, a positively-tilted, shortwave trough, with
a closed low embedded within, was moving onshore CA and trailing a
weak, shortwave ridge shifting eastward into the southern Great
Plains. Farther north, a large-scale trough was pivoting towards the
Laurentian Continental Divide, which has resulted in the dampening
of amplitude of the shortwave ridge moving towards W TX. A thick
cirrus shield continues to advect over the region, and will persist
throughout the next 24 hours as the upstream trough pivots into the
Desert Southwest and phases with the northern-stream troughing. At
the surface, the synoptic cold front and triple point were located
along the HWY-400 corridor in western KS, with the dryline branching
southward into the Rolling Plains per recent METAR and WTM data. The
dryline will translate slightly westward overnight while remaining
stalled in the Rolling Plains, with the west-southwesterly breeze
expected to veer westward during the predawn hours Tuesday.

The synoptic cold front is forecast to move into the Rolling Plains
by the late morning hours, with winds shifting towards the northeast
in its wake while accompanied by a low stratus deck. The cold front
will become quasi-stationary in a northwest-to-southeast-oriented
manner, stalling as far west as Tulia and southeastward towards
Aspermont. On the Caprock, west-southwesterly winds will become
breezy, with speeds between 20-30 mph, as boundary-layer heights
once again ascend into the mid-levels and result in efficient
downward momentum transport of the faster flow aloft (e.g., 500 mb
and 700 mb flow near 75 kt and 35 kt, respectively). Despite the
stronger west-southwesterly winds, temperatures will be a couple of
degrees cooler than Monday owing to the geopotential height falls
ahead of the incoming trough. While RH reductions will bottom out
between 17-22 percent on the Caprock, the stronger winds will
compensate for the marginal RH values. Therefore, elevated fire
weather conditions are once again expected across portions of the
Caprock. A Fire Danger Statement will be in effect between 2 PM and
8 PM CDT Tuesday. The quasi-stationary front is forecast to slosh
slightly westward overnight into Wednesday, potentially as far west
as the entire I-27 corridor. A shallow, low-level stratus deck will
remain intact to the east of the front due to the upslope fetch
amidst temperatures ranging from the lower 40s to middle 50s across
the northern-to-southern zones, respectively.

Sincavage

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Phasing of the once-bifurcated flow over the Lower 48 will have
completed by Wednesday morning, with a well-defined corridor of
subgeostrophic flow through its inflection point as it progresses
eastward into the Great Plains. The CWA will be positioned within
the left-entrance region to the belt of amplified, southwesterly
flow branching from the far northeastern Pacific Ocean and into the
Upper Midwest. The resultant dry-slotting will erode the low- and
high-level cloud decks, with similar mixing heights forecast to the
west of the quasi-stationary front, which will be very weak or will
have transitioned into a pre-frontal surface trough. Elevated fire
weather conditions will be possible for a small portion of the
Caprock Wednesday afternoon. Locales along and east of the stalled
front/boundary will have much shallower mixing from the sharp warm
nose within the 850-775 mb layer, thereby resulting in cooler high
temperatures compared to areas farther west.

A stronger cold front will move through the region Wednesday night
as the base of the open trough emerges over W TX. Sprinkles and/or
light rain showers will be possible across the far southwestern TX
PH Wednesday night as the lower theta surface saturate beneath
intense ascent, but QPF will be little-to-none. Temperatures will
fall into the middle 30s across the far southwestern TX PH Thursday
morning, with temperatures in the lower-middle 40s elsewhere across
the CWA. Therefore, a light freeze will be possible for the former
locales. As the airmass nears its saturation point, the frost may
develop on vegetation Thursday morning, which would be a rare
occurrence, especially in May. Highs will moderate into the middle
70s Thursday as the polar airmass will be quick to modify beneath
the high SZA, with hotter temperatures returning Friday and into
this weekend while remaining dry area-wide.

Sincavage

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Winds will stay breezy during the early morning hours on Tuesday.
A cold front will slowly move into the region from the northeast
shifting winds to the north at KCDS later this morning. However,
this front is expected to stall out before reaching KLBB and KPVW.
MVFR CIGS may fill in behind the front at KCDS later this morning.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...01