403
FXUS64 KLUB 152321
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
621 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 605 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

 - "Cool" and humid conditions will continue through Friday.

 - Daily shower/storm chances will peak Thursday and Friday,
   before diminishing by late weekend.

 - Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will be the primary
   hazards with precipitation.

 - Hotter and drier weather is expected next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

A round of low stratus affected roughly the southern half of the CWA
this morning, though it was now lifting and scattering as of midday.
Though these low clouds mark a further increase in moisture
spreading into the region, the closest showers have stayed down
toward the Concho Valley this morning, with the widespread
heavy/flooding rain much farther south into the Hill Country. The
influx of moisture, along with daytime heating, will fuel another
afternoon and evening of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms, primarily across the southern South and Rolling
Plains. Similar to recent days, brief heavy rain and gusty and
erratic winds will accompany any stronger cells. Otherwise, the
relatively "cool" but muggy conditions will continue this afternoon
and tonight.

Diurnally driven convection will fade this evening, but the mid-
level weakness/low downstate is forecast to wobble north while
commencing a slow westward drift. This will open the door for even
richer tropospheric moisture to be advected northward into the CWA.
As this happens, rain chances will increase and expand northward
into the Rolling Plains late tonight (after midnight). The
rain/storm chances will slowly spread northwestward over much of the
CWA through the day on Thursday, in concert with the westward
drifting mid-level low. PWATs increasing to 1.50-1.75+ inches,
combined with weak steering flow, will support locally heavy rain
and localized flooding on Thursday. Locations off the Caprock, in
the Rolling Plains, will be most favored for heavy rain Thursday
morning, with the risk for heavy rain potentially expanding westward
onto the Caprock during the afternoon. At this point, NWP doesn`t
indicate widespread excessive rainfall, but a swath or two of 1-2+
inches of rain are possible, primarily in the Rolling Plains
Thursday. Given this, we plan to hold off on any flood-related
highlights at the moment.

The increased cloud cover and areas of rain will further temper
temperatures, with highs mostly in the lower to middle 80s
Thursday. This will follow a pleasantly cool night with lows
primarily in the 60s tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

The mid-level low will continue to drift slowly westward on Friday
as ridging amplifies over the Rockies. A nearly saturated
troposphere will remain in place across West Texas, which could
support additional pockets of heavy rain just about anywhere in the
CWA. That said, the bulk of the medium range guidance are less
bullish on both rain coverage and amounts Friday. We`ll see, but the
where showers/storms do form/track they will definitely be
efficient rainers. The moist atmosphere (clouds and areas of rain)
will keep highs around 10 degrees below average. Thereafter, the
building upper ridge/high centered over the central Rockies will
cause the nearby weakness and its deep moisture to shift farther
westward, with moisture locally thinning with time. Even so,
residual low-level moisture, in combination with warming
temperatures, could prove enough to trigger spotty convection on
Saturday, favoring the western zones closest to the departing
weakness and best moisture. Even warmer/hotter and drier weather
will follow late weekend into early next week as the moisture
continues to abate thanks to the increasing influence of the upper
ridge. Temperatures will rebound close to average Sunday, then move
to the warm (hot) side of average next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

TAFs VFR through 08Z/16 followed by development of MVFR CIGs,
particularly at KLBB. IFR CIGs possible, mainly at KLBB and KPVW
but probability not high enough to take TAFs that low this cycle.
Expect VFR to return to all terminals and chances for mainly
-SHRA will increase after 17Z/16 but again not confident enough of
 when and where to include any -SHRA/-TSRA for now. JW

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...13