Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
782 FXUS64 KLUB 231135 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 635 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 - Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms for most of the region next week. - A strong cold front will push through the region early next week bringing cooler temperatures with it. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Should be a nice and quiet day today. The region will remain under the eastern edge of an upper high that is centered over the Desert Southwest. Flow aloft will shift from the northeast to the north as upper troughing tracks across the US/Canada border and the upper high gradually elongates up western portions of CONUS. A very weak front is progged to track through the region this afternoon, however it will have no affect on temperatures for today. Easterly surface winds will drop temperatures for today, however by only a couple of degrees with highs in the 90s for most of the region. Some localized areas on the Caprock may only reach the upper 80s. Subsidence from the upper high will keep convective chances near zero. Tonight will be mild with mostly clear skies and lows in the 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 The main focus for the long term package is daily precipitation chances and cooler than normal temperatures following a cold front early next week. Conditions are expected to remain dry Sunday as the ridge remains overhead, however precipitation chances begin early Monday. An upper trough tracking across the US/Canada border will push into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region by the beginning of the week. In turn, this will push the upper high southward where it will set up over most of Texas through the first half of next week. As the upper high shifts, the upper level flow aloft will shift to the northwest effectively bringing a subtropical moisture plume overhead. On the surface, southeasterly flow will prevail in response to a lee side trough developing across eastern New Mexico ushering in surface moisture to the region. With the increased moisture and perturbations progged to track over the region, daily precipitation chances return early Monday and continue through next weekend. Sunday and Monday will remain warm with highs in the 90s for most of the region, however we will get a much needed break from these warm temperatures as a strong cold front is progged to track through the region early next week. Previous model runs indicated the front would reach the region early Tuesday morning. However, current models have the front progressing faster, reaching the far southern Texas Panhandle by Monday evening. Temperatures are expected to drop significantly following the FROPA with highs Tuesday and Wednesday 10 to 15 degrees below seasonal average. Timing of the front is still uncertain at the moment as models continue to progress it faster with each run, therefore NBM temperatures were kept, however may need to be adjusted in later forecast packages. Temperatures will begin to warm back up again the latter half of the week as surface winds shift back to the south in response to a lee surface trough developing to the north of our region. However, the warm up doesn`t look to last long as a secondary cold front is progged to track through the region later in the week bringing cooler temperatures by the weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 635 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 VFR conditions will prevail. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...51