274
FXUS64 KLUB 050917
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
317 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 157 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

 - Warmer and breezy today across much of the region with elevated
   to near-critical fire weather conditions this afternoon near
   and west of I-27/US-87.

 - Dry and unseasonably warm weather expected to persist through
   Saturday.

 - Colder from Sunday through Wednesday with a slight chance of
   light wintry precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 157 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Early morning water vapor analysis highlights a broad zone of
southwesterly flow aloft over most of the western CONUS with a
modest shortwave trough moving quickly eastward over the Four
Corners. At the surface, a continued moist easterly wind component
has resulted in low stratus and some fog over portions of the
region, though coverage has been less than previously expected with
more widespread fog/stratus/drizzle confined well to our east. The
above mentioned upper shortwave will deepen a lee surface cyclone
over SE CO today, with surface winds consequently strengthening and
obtaining a dry westerly component over most of the Caprock by mid-
morning with strong southwest winds then persisting through the
afternoon hours. Farther east, winds will be slower to turn westerly
with low clouds likely to persist over the SE TX Panhandle through
at least early afternoon. This will result in a notable gradient in
afternoon temperatures with the SE TX Panhandle and eastern Rolling
Plains likely only reaching the low/mid 60s at best. The rest of the
forecast area will have little trouble reaching into the mid 70s to
low 80s this afternoon, with today`s record high at Lubbock (81 set
in 1937) within reach. Another item of note with today`s forecast
will be a period of elevated to near-critical fire weather
conditions near and west of I-27/US-87 given the strong southwest
breezes and very dry air filtering in during the afternoon, and a
Red Flag Warning is in effect from 11 AM until 7 PM for the western
third of the forecast area. Winds will weaken fairly quickly after
sunset this evening, but a continuing westerly component will keep
temperatures mild with lows mainly in the 40s under mostly clear
skies.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 157 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Underneath zonal flow aloft, another shallow front will backdoor
into West Texas on Thursday. This front will not have a
particularly strong push to it, with the main push of the approx.
1024 sfc high displaced to our northeast. Thus, it is a little
uncertain how far south and west the cool air will advance and
what our temperature distribution will look like across the
forecast area on Thursday. Right now, the middle road suggests
highs ranging from near 70 degrees in the far southwest Texas
Panhandle, to around 80 degrees across the southern portions of
the South Plains and Rolling Plains. There will also be the
potential for some low stratus and possibly fog along the stalled
front Thursday night into Friday morning, favoring the Rolling
Plains.

Similarly, on Friday, we think that the cool airmass will hang
tough east of the escarpment, while we fully expect drier west-
southwest flow to prevail on the Caprock. This should result in
very warm, but not quite record-setting, temperatures across the
Cap with highs in the 70s and 80s, while highs in the northern
Rolling Plains and far southeast Texas Panhandle remaining a
little cooler...but still above average. And like tomorrow night,
we could see some low clouds and fog redevelop Friday night in the
Rolling Plains.

One more very warm day is on tap for Saturday, with dry west-
southwest breezes spreading across the entire forecast area. This
should give one last day with highs in the 70s and 80s. The one
caveat is that a stronger cold front will be racing south through
the High Plains during the day Saturday. This front is currently
progged to move into our northern counties during the afternoon
hours, and could result in temperatures falling a little earlier
than they would normally, especially if the front is a bit faster
than currently forecast. The winds could also get a bit breezy
both ahead of the front and for a time after fropa...but nothing
suggests they will approach advisory level wind speeds at this
time.

The cool, post-frontal airmass builds into the region on Sunday,
but with the expected mostly sunny conditions, we should still
warm up into the 40s and 50s for highs.

The weather forecast gets a little more interesting for the
Monday to Wednesday time-frame next week. The zonal flow aloft
will be replaced by deep troughing that will be slowly
progressing out of the Western U.S. into the Central and Southern
Plains. Two shortwaves will pass through the parent trough
bringing some periods of at least modest lift, while the cool
surface ridging is maintained across the area. A deep moisture
connection appears to be lacking, but it`s not out of the question
that we could see some light precipitation developing as early as
Monday morning, with better chances favoring the Rolling Plains
at this point. There is quite a bit of spread in ensemble
temperatures starting on Monday, but in general we expect a chilly
period Mon-Wed with highs mainly in the 40s and perhaps a little
cooler for periods/areas that may remain stuck in low stratus.
With nighttime lows expected to drop into the 20s there will be
potential for snow and wintry mix precip as well, although again
at this time indications suggest any precip will be light.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1040 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

Low stratus continues to advect northeastward over KCDS and KLBB,
and will be approaching KPVW within the hour. Ceilometer at NWS
LBB observed CIGs as low as 600 ft AGL. IFR CIGs are expected to
last through late-morning, with LIFR to possibly even BLO MIN CIGs
developing near sunrise. VSBY reductions from fog will occur as
well, but it is uncertain if dense fog will come to fruition.
Conditions will rapidly improve at KLBB and KPVW near 05/18Z, with
the low stratus quickly eroding as winds veer southwestward and
accelerate to around 15 kt tomorrow afternoon. Winds will then
diminish by sunset. VFR will prevail at KCDS, KLBB, and KPVW,
after the stratus erodes late tomorrow morning.

Sincavage

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Lubbock    TX  84  41  80  40 /  10   0   0   0
Childress  TX  62  42  71  36 /  10   0   0   0
Brownfield TX  83  40  79  42 /  10   0   0   0
Levelland  TX  83  40  79  39 /  10   0   0   0
Plainview  TX  80  39  75  35 /  10   0   0   0
Friona     TX  78  40  74  37 /   0   0   0   0
Tahoka     TX  83  43  79  42 /  10   0   0   0
Aspermont  TX  75  52  80  42 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this
evening for TXZ021-022-027-028-033-034-039-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...09