129
FXUS64 KLUB 061917
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
217 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Potential of severe thunderstorms returns this afternoon and evening
   with possibility for wind gusts up to 90 mph, hail up to
   softball size, localized flash flooding, and tornadoes.

 - Severe thunderstorm chances remain expected each
   afternoon/evening through the end of the next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1110 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

We will have a similar severe weather setup to yesterday with some
subtle differences. Height changes aloft will be just about neutral
today within the southwesterly flow aloft. Although this will result
in a lack of subsidence today, there will still be a lack of large
scale ascent. The subsidence yesterday clearly did not affect the
strengthen of convection. Ultimately though, today may bring more
scattered convection rather than only a single supercell
thunderstorm like what we saw yesterday afternoon. A complicating
issue is the near surface wind fields. An outflow boundary was still
slowly dipping southward which originated from the Texas Panhandle
early this morning. Behind the boundary, winds immediately back to
the northeast but farther north, winds have already begun to veer
back to the east/southeast. The latest RAP forecasts generally have
a good handle on this feature and back the winds to the
east/southeast across the central South Plains this afternoon. Winds
will likely behave this way due to the strengthening surface low in
southeastern New Mexico. This surface boundary still appears to be
in the RAP forecast this afternoon around the time of initiation but
remains very subtle by that time. This will ultimately maximize low
level convergence around the southwestern South Plains into Lea
County New Mexico or so in close proximity to the surface low and
remnant outflow boundary.

The lack of low stratus today will yield much warmer surface
temperatures and therefore deeper boundary layer mixing and higher
cloud bases. This will not negate a tornado threat but will bring
lower probabilities than what we saw yesterday. Supercell
thunderstorms will continue to likely be surface based within the
deeply mixed boundary layer. The deeper mixing will also cause
surface dew points to mix out a bit more than yesterday dropping
into the upper 50s in southeastern New Mexico and lower 60s in the
southwestern South Plains. A strong surge of low level theta-e air
will occur within the southeasterly low level flow this afternoon.
It will orient itself into the peak area of low level convergence
where convective initiation is expected. This strong low level
moisture will also allow storms to sustain themselves well eastward
this evening into the eastern South Plains and Rolling Plains.
Although surface dew points will mix out a bit more today, warmer
temperatures will allow the cap to be breached roughly around 20Z or
so. Mixed layer instability values are forecast to be between 2500
and 3500 J/kg with continued steep mid level lapse rates and
relatively cool mid-level temperatures. Hodographs will be nearly
straight line promoting splitting supercells. Low level turning will
not initially be impressive with weaker near surface winds but will
increase late afternoon as a low level jet ramps up. The remnant
outflow boundary may locally enhance low level turning increasing
tornado probabilities. Otherwise, very large hail is anticipated
with a stronger chance of damaging wind gusts over what was observed
yesterday owing to the deeper mixed boundary layer. Lastly, a
precipitable water anomaly between 125 and 150 percent of normal will
exist along the remnant boundary promoting another flash flooding
threat within this corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Much less convective activity is expected for Saturday. Large scale
ascent will continue to be absent with more zonal but stronger flow
aloft. An overnight MCS rolling across Colorado into Kansas will
send a convectively enhanced cold front through the area on Saturday
morning. Strong heating will continue to garner impressive
instability values with surface dew points in the 60s. However, this
front/outflow will most likely keep us capped during the afternoon
hours. Despite the front, temperatures will rise into the upper 80s
to lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

An active pattern remains expected through the end of next week.
Saturday will be the hottest and subsequently the most capped day.
This will inhibit any convective development, however a few storms
are possible late-day as a weak upper shortwave tracks across the
far SE Panhandle. Sunday looks very favorable for severe
thunderstorms as a broad upper trough and relatively strong surface
cold front approach from the north. Models are in good agreement
considering the leadtime that greatest chances will occur across the
far SE Panhandle and Rolling Plains, with all showing a well-defined
MCS persisting through the evening hours. As a large upper ridge
develops to the west, a series of disturbances will propagate across
the area bringing daily afternoon/evening storm chances each day
thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Additional thunderstorms are expected this afternoon with
greatest chances at KLBB again. Thunderstorms are anticipated to
be isolated to scattered this afternoon. Strong and variable winds
will be likely in close proximity to thunderstorms if it impacts a
TAF site. Otherwise, light southeasterly winds are expected. A
cold front will move through the area mid to late Saturday morning
shifting light winds to the north/northeast.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...01