Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
325 FXUS64 KLUB 011733 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1233 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1224 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025 - Thunderstorm chances will increase late this evening and into the nighttime hours, primarily on the Caprock. - Isolated flash flooding will be possible late this evening and tonight, primarily on the Caprock. - Heat builds next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 1144 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025 15Z upper air analysis depicts a low-amplitude ridge centered over the AZ Sun Corridor, with the leading edge of a quasi-zonal jet streak emanating out of the Pacific Ocean nosing into the central Great Plains. The 12Z objectively analyzed UA charts observed 40 kt of westerly flow from the DDC RAOB, with flow veering northwesterly farther south, as sampled by the RAOB from WFO MAF. This positions the CWA beneath the belt of northwesterly flow throughout the steering layer (i.e., 700-300 mb), and the flow was otherwise anemic beneath 250-300 mb given the dampened amplitude of the ridge. The convectively-augmented vorticity lobe that was responsible for the maintenance of the nocturnal convection has since become sheared out on water-vapor imagery, and the ongoing showers and storms across a small portion of the Caprock and Rolling Plains continue to rapidly diminish in coverage. Broken anvil debris will linger throughout the day, and the low-level stratus deck across the northern half of the CWA will be slow to erode this afternoon. Another shortwave impulse was detected on water-vapor imagery over the Four Corners region, and will serve as the impetus for the formation of diurnally-driven convection to the west and northwest of the CWA this afternoon. This will lead to another round of thunderstorms heading into tonight. At the surface, the CWA was within a post-frontal airmass, with a quasi-stationary front dammed along the lee of the Rocky Mountains, which bends southeastward into west-central TX between the I-10 and I-20 corridors. Northeasterly winds were weak, and become variable across the southwestern South Plains where the remnants of a diffuse MCV are located. Winds will remain weak throughout the short-term period, with a wide range in high temperatures forecast this afternoon. Highs will peak in the middle 80s in the far southwestern TX PH, while climbing into the lower 90s across the southern and eastern zones. PoPs were removed through 00Z this evening, as the airmass is convectively-overturned from the overnight MCS. Scattered thunderstorms across eastern and northeastern New Mexico are forecast to evolve into a loosely-organized MCS later this evening, with a southeastward component to its propagation. PoPs were raised and expanded across all of the Caprock and Rolling Plains for tonight, with the highest chances focused across the Caprock. The MCS will be slow-moving due to the anemic 700-300 mb flow, and its intensity will be tempered by warm mid-levels and the lack of large-scale forcing for ascent. Locally heavy rainfall will result in isolated instances of flash flooding/ponding, with rain rates between 1-2"/hr common with the deepest cores. The MCS will decay by the pre-dawn hours Saturday, and the airmass will once again be overturned throughout the afternoon hours until storm chances reload Saturday night. High temperatures will be a few degrees hotter as well, with highs in the lower 90s area-wide. Sincavage && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1144 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025 Saturday night will bring the chance for another round of northwest flow thunderstorms as the mid/upper level high will remain centered west of El Paso and as a weak short wave trough moves across the central High Plains potentially supporting diurnal Sangre de Cristo and Raton Mesa convection moving to the east and southeast across the Texas Panhandle. The ridge will begin to build northward up the spine of the Colorado Rockies on Sunday, likely bringing an end to the diurnal thunderstorms on the high terrain or limiting their eastward movement if they do form Sunday afternoon. Instead, some moist upslope flow onto the Caprock escarpment Sunday afternoon on the eastern periphery of the upper ridge looks to be the initiation zone for diurnally-driven thunderstorms Sunday afternoon with chances lingering into the evening to overnight hours. The pattern then becomes a hotter and drier one as the western ridge strengthens and expands to the north and east. This should effectively shut off precipitation chances for the entirety of the upcoming work week. In addition, increasing heights support the hotter temperatures. By midweek models prog 500 mb geopotential height values at or in excess of 598 dam which brings excessive heat potential into the picture. NBM and MOS are generally keeping forecast highs just below the magical 105 degree threshold, but given that we are still 5 to 7 days out from the heart of this hot spell, the potential for the issuance of heat related products bears watch. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025 VFR flying conditions are expected during this TAF cycle. Showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. A storm complex may move out of New Mexico and approach the TAF sites late this evening. There is a potential for IFR ceilings on Saturday morning. ANB/ZSM && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...26