602
FXUS64 KLUB 171755
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1255 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1237 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

 - Shower and thunderstorm chances return this afternoon and
   evening to the far southern Texas Panhandle and portions of the
   South Plains.

 - Hot this weekend into at least early next week.

 - Dry this weekend, with low thunder chances returning next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Current radar imagery shows some lingering showers northeast of our
region that are slowly dissipating. The cold front that was progged
to only reach the northern row of counties in our CWA was given an
extra push through the region by an outflow boundary from some
storms just north of the CWA this morning. The front has pushed out
of the region late this morning. Light northerly winds following the
front have begun to gradually veer to the southeast and will persist
there the rest of today. CAA behind the front is weak and will
have no effect on temperatures for today as highs are expected to
reach the mid to upper 90s.

The mid/upper-level subtropical high remains stagnant over the
majority of the southeastern CONUS while the upper low rotating over
Baja California gradually shifts northward. A monsoonal moisture
plume sits over New Mexico and parts of the Texas Panhandle which
will aide with shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon
and evening. Forcing from upslope southeasterly surface flow will
result in showers and thunderstorms developing over
north/northeastern New Mexico. These storms are expected to track
southeastward into our CWA affecting the far southern Texas
Panhandle and portions of the South Plains. However, the storms are
not expected to last long in our region with subsidence from the
upper ridge and lack of daytime heating. With weak forcing and
instability, thunderstorms are expected to remain sub-severe. Main
hazard possible will be locally heavy rainfall with the chance for
flash flooding with PWATs ~1.25 inches.

Showers and thunderstorms should diminish before sunrise tomorrow.
The rest of Friday will be dry as winds veer to the southwest
cutting off low-level moisture from the Gulf. Temperatures will
slightly warm tomorrow due to gradual height rises with some areas
off the Caprock possibly reaching triple digits.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

The extended forecast remains on track, with only minor adjustments
made this iteration. The main theme will be the heat, as highs in
the upper 90s to a few degrees over 100 look likely this weekend
into early next week. Low thunder chances will also exist most days
next week, favoring the western and northwestern zones.

Looking at the bigger picture, the subtropical ridge dominating the
Deep South will translate westward through the weekend. This will
bring increasing heights/thicknesses to the region, resulting in an
uptick in temperatures. Current projections have the hottest
temperatures occurring late weekend into early next week, when most
locations will experience high temperatures near 100 degrees, give
or take a few degrees depending on location/elevation. At this
point, it appears we`ll stay below advisory levels (temperature or
heat index at or above 105 degrees), though it may be close in
spots. The one positive is that humidity levels will drop some as
the monsoon plume is temporarily shunted to the west of the CWA, so
it won`t feel as sticky as it has most of this summer.

The latest medium range NWP indicate the western periphery of the
mid/upper high will weaken a bit early next week as a trough/low
digs into the Pacific Northwest. This will allow the eastern edge of
the fetch of monsoon moisture to bend eastward, perhaps over our
western zones, at a minimum, through much of the upcoming week. This
will allow at least low thunder chances to return to our
western/northwestern zones, perhaps as early as Sunday evening, but
more likely each evening starting on Monday and continuing through
much/all of the week. That said, the thrust of the monsoon is still
expected to remain to our west (through much of NM, CO and eastern
AZ), but any storms that can get going locally would be capable of
generating pockets of heavy rain, gusty winds and small hail.
Otherwise, the increase in moisture and cloud cover, and modest
easing of the subtropical ridge influence, should allow temperatures
to drop back a few degrees, at least on the Caprock.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Northeasterly
winds will gradually veer to the southeast through this afternoon.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...10