041
FXUS64 KLUB 160332
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1032 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1029 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue over the Caprock
   through early Wednesday morning.

 - Dry and warm weather returns Wednesday afternoon and continues
   through the end of the work week.

 - A more unsettled and slightly cooler weather pattern arrives
   this weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 1029 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

An eastward advance of a healthy monsoonal moisture plume brought an
evening of active weather to the region on Tuesday, with residual
showers and thunderstorms (with some locally heavy rain) continuing
through tonight and early Wednesday morning mainly west of I-27
before quieter weather returns after sunrise. An upper level ridge
centered over the TN Valley will slowly build westward over the next
24 hours, effectively cutting off our supply of mid/upper level
moisture as the monsoonal plume retreats to our west. As a result,
dry weather is expected Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night
across the entire forecast area. Above normal temperatures continue
area-wide Wednesday with afternoon highs again mainly in the 90s.
Quiet and unseasonably warm weather is then set to persist into
Thursday as the position of the ridge aloft remains generally
unchanged.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Dry and very warm conditions carry into Friday as a broad ~599
dam H5 sets up over AR into northeast TX. Not until Friday night
do we see this high faltering which allows monsoonal moisture to
creep into our westernmost counties complete with some rain
chances. The arrival of a improved SW flow aloft on Saturday in
the base of a broad trough cresting the Rockies spells improved
rain chances, especially on the Caprock, where the axis of
monsoonal moisture overlaps with a SW-NE surface trough. This
pattern supports a regional precip event with heavy rain at times
given PWAT anomalies reaching +0.5 to +0.8" and a window for
training convection. The pattern remains unsettled and turns
cooler for Sunday following a bona fide cold front with reasonably
moist E-NE winds in the lowest levels. With southwest flow
lingering aloft through early next week, additional chances for
precip remain intact despite mixed ensemble signals.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Periods of TSRA with occasional MVFR or IFR visibility will
continue at KLBB and KPVW over the next few hours, with very
strong wind gusts to around 50 kt possible within the strongest
convective cores. This activity will gradually diminish by 06z
with VFR and quiet weather expected thereafter.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...30