914
FXUS64 KLUB 171127
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
627 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Very warm and breezy conditions across the area this weekend.

 - There is a slight chance of thunderstorms across the far
   eastern Rolling Plains during the late afternoon and evening
   hours through Monday.

 - A cold front passing through on Tuesday will bring a modest
   cool down for midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 209 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Waver vapor imagery and upper-air analysis shows a sharp shortwave
trough over Baja, CA this morning with a broad channel of cirrus
stretching downstream all the way into northwest Texas. At the
surface, West Texas Mesonet observations show that modest moisture
(dewpoints in the upper 40s to lower 50s) are returning to the
Rolling Plains on southeast winds while the rich low-level
moisture remains well off to the south and east.

The shortwave will weaken at it accelerates to the northeast
today, passing over West Texas this afternoon. The dryline will
mix quickly east today and likely east of the forecast area, but
may hold on across our far southeast, perhaps in Stonewall
County. It`s in this small sliver of our area that we could see an
isolated storm develop in the afternoon. back to the west, a few
virga showers are possible from the layer of moisture above 10k
ft, but the low-levels look to be too dry for even any sprinkles.
Lee cyclogenesis will lead to southwest breezes on the Caprock
during the afternoon as well. The dryline will retreat west this
evening and it`s not totally out of the question we could see
another chance of an isolated storm in the srn Rolling Plains
tonight but the potential looks quite small at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 209 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

The dryline may make it as far west as the I-27 corridor, or
perhaps a bit farther, tonight, before it gets an early start east
on Sunday as W-SW flow increases from the next, deeper trough
moving into the 4-corners. However, with this trough rotating
northeast into the central high plains, only skirting West Texas,
the dryline will likely stall out somewhere near or just east of
the eastern Rolling Plains by mid-late afternoon. Depending on the
timing of the lift and the position of the dryline at peak
heating, there could be a small window for t-storm development on
our eastern boundary before the potential shifts eastward into
north-central TX and the RRV. The lion`s share of the forecast
area will be in the warm, dry and breezy air to the west of the
dryline. Temperatures will be in the mid 80s northwest to mid 90s
southeast. Winds may be as high as the 20 to 30 mph range, with
gusts well into the 30s and perhaps low 40s. This could be strong
enough for some patchy BLDU, or we may get a light haze from more
established dust sources to our southwest.

Monday will be slightly similar to Sunday as the final vorticity
lobe in the larger trough will pass across the region during the
day. In fact, there may be t-storm activity ongoing early Monday
morning just to our southeast as lift from this wave coincides
with the dryline. But aside from southeast Rolling Plains, the
forecast area will be in the dry, westerly flow regime again.

Finally on Tuesday, a change will arrive in the form of a cold
front. Recent trends have weakened the amount of cooling behind
the front...with guidance nudging up from the mid 70s-lower 80s
on Wednesday into the low-mid 80s...and a bit warmer again on
Thursday. Clockwise flow around the surface high in the Central
Plains will bring some recycled moisture back into the area on
Thursday, and with guidance suggesting there may be some sort of
wave passing over West Texas in northwesterly flow aloft, there
may be some potential for some t-storm activity in the region
Thursday afternoon, but the signal is pretty weak at this time. A
better signal seems to be shaping up for late in the weekend and
early the following week, but there is still a lot of variation
in the forecast pattern at that time range.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Southwest
winds will increase and become gusty mid to late morning but then
decrease again after sunset tonight.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...07