Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
279 FXUS64 KLUB 121738 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1138 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1136 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 - Near-record high temperatures are forecast Friday and Saturday. - Cooler and dry by early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1136 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 Uneventful weather will continue through the short term period with upper level ridging dominating the region. A very weak short wave, currently observed on water vapor imagery over New Mexico will be moving through the ridge and overhead tonight into early Thursday morning. This weak disturbance will only have the effect of advecting high level cloud cover overhead. The upper level ridge axis will move closer to the area on Thursday following the short wave trough. Surface cyclogenesis and pressure troughing in lee of the Rockies on Thursday afternoon will swing surface winds around to the southwest. Although wind speeds will not be anything to write home about, the downslope component to the wind along with increasing heights will bring record or near record temperatures again for Thursday afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1136 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 A few changes have been made to the forecast for the extended period, including: the possibility for near-record high temperatures Saturday and the removal of PoPs late this weekend and into early next week. At the beginning of the period, the mid/upper-levels will feature a longwave ridge, with a bifurcation of the jet stream translating through its apex, over North America. Farther west and offshore the Pacific Coast, a positively-tilted, shortwave trough will be digging southward as the closed low embedded within the trough intensifies. The presence of this shortwave trough, having previously split from the northern-stream, progressive wave train, will induce an amplification of the ridging over the Lower 48, with a very warm day expected Friday and near-record highs possible. The surface pattern will be relatively benign, with the exception of a weak surface low located in the vicinity of the Upper Red River Valley, perhaps in the far southeastern TX PH or in far southwestern OK. Regardless of the exact location of this lee cyclone, the surface trough already draped across the Rolling Plains will transition into a sharpened dryline in response to large-scale moisture return to its east, with a well-defined zone of confluent winds near and along it. Slightly hotter temperatures may come to fruition in the Rolling Plains should the dryline mix east of the 100th meridian and cause winds to maintain a more-westerly component. Temperatures may breach 90 degrees in portions of the Rolling Plains Friday. Despite the presence of a dryline and surface low, no thunderstorms will develop in the eastern zones Friday. A persistence forecast technique was applied to Saturday, as the progression of the shortwave trough is forecast to be slowed due to it becoming temporarily cut-off from the main belt of polar westerlies. This system is forecast to wobble offshore CA for about 24-36 hours before it begins to become absorbed into a shortwave trough digging into the Pacific Northwest. Near-record highs are forecast once again Saturday, as the apex of the mid/upper-level ridge will remain over W TX, with the dryline lingering near the 100th meridian and keeping the westerly breeze intact. Farther north, a shortwave trough pivoting into eastern Canada will send a cold front southward across the Great Plains, with the weakening front forecast to move into the CWA Saturday night. Slightly cooler temperatures are forecast Sunday, followed by a steady cooling trend into Monday following the passage of the Pacific cold front. PoPs for the late weekend and early next week have been removed, as the upstream shortwave trough is forecast to eject northeastward over the Great Basin and into the northern Great Plains early next week. ________________________________ High temperature records for Friday, November 14th; and Saturday, November 15th, 2025: The record high temperatures for Friday at CDS and LBB are 88 and 85 degrees, respectively; and each were set before World War II, or in 1932 and 1933. Highs of 84 and 87 degrees are forecast at CDS and LBB Friday. The record highs for Saturday at CDS and LBB are coincidentally 88 and 85 degrees, respectively; and each were set in 1903 and 1965. Highs of 86 and 87 degrees are forecast at CDS and LBB Saturday. High temperatures for both days will be 20-25 degrees above seasonal norms. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1136 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 VFR is expected through the TAF period. Light winds will swing around to the southwest-west early Thursday morning. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...01