941
FXUS64 KLUB 230519
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1219 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1218 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

 - Hot and mostly dry conditions continue Thursday.

 - Thunderstorm chances increase Friday afternoon and evening,
   including potential for damaging winds and heavy rain.

 - Drier and hotter next week with Heat Advisories possible off
   the Caprock.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

A strong upper level high pressure will remain over the area through
Thursday. Overnight lows will be slightly warmer than last night,
ranging from the mid 70s on the Caprock to near 80 off the Caprock.
Hot and mostly dry conditions persist on Thursday with another Heat
Advisory in effect generally for areas off the Caprock with highs of
103 to 106 likely. However, most all other areas will reach at least
the low triple-digits. A shortwave trough will track over the Great
Plains during the afternoon/evening, along with dewpoints remaining
at or above 60 off the Caprock. Consequently, CAMs and some larger-
scale models indicate some convective initiation over this timeframe
as a result however it will be quite isolated with severe weather
unlikely. Mild conditions persist overnight Thursday into Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Friday begins with the upper high relocating from the South Plains
to western New Mexico which should allow for a precious one or two
degree decline in high temps compared to Thursday. Some of this tiny
cooling can be attributed to an uptick in dewpoints through the
afternoon on breezier southerly winds ahead of a surface trough.
This trough is forecast to run from eastern NM to the TX Panhandle
by midday, and when combined with a weak shortwave trough in NW flow
and strong surface heating we expect storms by Friday afternoon and
especially the evening across much of our western and northern
zones. Rather anemic northwest flow around 10 knots won`t do much
to steer these storms southward, but strong outflows should
foster some redevelopment away from the surface trough. Localized
severe winds, blowing dust, and heavy rain are all on the table
before storms fade overnight. Any residual outflow boundaries or
lingering MCVs in light NNE flow aloft could spur additional
storms by Saturday afternoon mainly on the Caprock, but this
potential is much less than Friday owing to rising heights and
subsidence from the upper high expanding our way. Although still
hot, high temps for Saturday should decline to their lowest
readings in days provided some high clouds remain in the area from
overnight storms. Thereafter, the story turns more dire as the
upper high shifts squarely over the TX Panhandle through early
next week complete with hotter temps, including a likely encore of
Heat Advisories off the Caprock.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
for TXZ024>026-031-032-037-038-042>044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...12