146
FXUS64 KLUB 242320
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
620 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 618 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

 - Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
   through the end of the week, other overall severe threat
   remains low.

 - Drier and hotter conditions are expected to continue through
   the weekend.

 - Wetter and cooler conditions return early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Tonight through tomorrow quiet and dry weather conditions are
expected for the majority the FA with the exception of our far
western counties.

This evening into tomorrow as an expansive mid-level and surface
high over the Deep South continues to promote southerly flow across
the South Plains a mid level trough will gradually pull eastward
through the Desert Southwest. As a result of this setup a steady
stream of moisture will continue to be advected northward just to
our west. As the aforementioned mid-level trough slowly traverses
eastward moisture will combined with perturbations rounding the base
of the mid-level trough to further enhance the ongoing convection we
have been seeing all day. There is a slight chance that these rain
showers will push into our far western column of counties.
Parameters indicate that a rumble of thunder might be possible, but
similar to what we saw last night the expectation is that rain
showers will be the main culprit.

Temperatures tonight will once again drop into the mid 60s to mid70
with a highs tomorrow slightly warmer than today and in the mid
80s to mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

The forecast area will find itself sandwiched between systems
through much of the extended period as an upper level ridge and
associated high pressure system dominates over the eastern CONUS
while an upper level trough begins to dig into the Desert Southwest
region through the end of the week. Thus resulting in southwest flow
aloft across the region. Meanwhile at the surface, moist southerly
winds are expected to prevail as the surface high maintains
positioning off to the east while surface troughing continues to our
north. Overall wind speeds are expected to remain relaxed, generally
less than 15 mph, each afternoon through much of the extended as
surface subsidence works to limit boundary layer mixing across the
FA. Although wind speeds will not be as strong, increased thickness
values, along with the southerly component to the wind, will work to
drawl in WAA into the region. In which 850mb temperatures ranging
from 20C to 25C suggest that daytime highs will likely climb into
the upper 80s to upper 90s each afternoon. As far as precipitation
goes through the extended, the upper level ridge expanding west
through mid-week will likely keep PoPs confined to areas along and
west of the I-27 corridor with the main axis of monsoonal moisture
wrapping around the western periphery of the upper level ridge.
Chances for precipitation begin to diminish through the weekend as
we begin to see the upper level ridge break down as the upper level
trough to our east becomes absorbed into the main flow. This will
likely lead to mostly dry conditions through the weekend, however;
given the upslope component to the wind each afternoon it is likely
we see higher terrain driven convection try to move into our western
zones, although flow aloft looks to remain rather weak, which is not
an uncommon setup for this time of year. Ensemble guidance then
begins to hint at cooler and wetter pattern towards the beginning
next week as an upper level high builds over the Desert Southwest
region while an upper level trough translates through the Great
Lakes region. This will lead to another beltway of monsoonal
moisture over the region which will lead to increased chances of
precipitation across the region. Therefore will go ahead and
maintain NBM mentionable PoPs for Monday and Tuesday at this time
until details become more certain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

VFR conditions are expected for West Texas over the next 24 hours.
There is a low confidence risk for showers to develop across the
region tomorrow afternoon.

SC/KL

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...26