127
FXUS64 KLUB 181951
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
251 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...


 - Thunderstorms are possible primarily across the eastern Rolling
   Plains and far southeastern Texas Panhandle late this afternoon
   and evening, with strong winds and large hail possible.

 - Showers and thunderstorms are expected across most of the
   region late Saturday, with quiet weather returning Sunday and
   Monday before daily thunderstorm chances return from Tuesday
   through the end of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

An H-5 upper level trough over the four corners region continues to
move east with high pressure centered over the southeastern US. Our
FA in the mean time sits in a belt of enhanced southwesterlies aloft
helping usher in moisture in the mid levels as indicated by
increasing clouds. A cold front continues to move south through the
area with gusty northerly winds behind it. However, this front has
begun to stall as southwesterly winds continue to strengthen with
pressure falls to our west. This front may retreat northward late
this afternoon for a few hours. However, models continue to have a
poor handle on cold front timing and progression throughout today
and tomorrow.

Thunderstorms are possible in our far eastern counties this
afternoon behind the cold front as upper level divergence from the
H5 jet streak of 60+ kts along with mid level moistening will
provide lift for thunderstorms. However, the main severe weather
chances should remain off to the east of our FA where better surface
moisture exists ahead of the dryline.

Moving into the overnight period, the cold front will begin to push
south with most of our counties becoming post frontal with lows
ranging from low 40`s in the northwestern counties to low 60`s in
the southeastern counties.

As we move into the day tomorrow, the trough will continue to push
east providing diffluence aloft along with vorticity advection,
enhancing lift across the area. This will provide a focus for
thunderstorm initiation during the late afternoon and evening hours
tomorrow as MUCAPE values of 500+ j/kg provide energy for
thunderstorms. For additional details, see long term AFD below.

-BT/KL

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

An upper level low over the southern Rockies will set up a
southwesterly jet streak over the region on Saturday aiding in
chances of precipitation. Shower and thunderstorm chances continue
overnight through Sunday afternoon as an embedded shortwave moves
overhead aiding in ascent as the upper low approaches the region.
Low level stable air mass will help keep chances of severe
thunderstorms low however, some hail and severe winds gusts are
possible. Conditions are expected to dry up by Sunday afternoon as
the upper level low moves east away from the region however will be
relatively cool and slightly breezy. After the departure of the low,
west to southwesterly flow aloft should prevail for most of the
week. Surface winds will shift to a southerly flow, warming
temperatures to upper 70s and 80s through the week. Precipitation
chances are expected to return Tuesday as southwesterly flow
overhead ushers in subtropical moisture. A typical springtime
dryline setup and multiple embedded shortwaves over the region will
bring high to likely chances of PoPs through the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period for
LBB/PVW. A cold front has slowly moved through the region and has
cleared all TAF sites. Gusty northerly winds will persist behind
this front throughout the afternoon before easing slightly
overnight. While the front has moved through Lubbock, there is a
possibility of the front retreating which could result in a
southwesterly wind shift in the afternoon for a few hours, though
confidence in the retreat is too low to place into the TAF at
this time.

Thunderstorms are possible at KCDS along the front later this
afternoon and evening. LLWS along with LIFR conditions may occur
overnight, however confidence for this outcome is low at this time.

-KCL/BT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Mid-morning update: A faster than expected progression of a cold
front through the Panhandle is resulting in cooler than expected
temperatures across the northern end of the Red Flag Warning.
However, current indications are that the front will retreat
northward this afternoon with warm, dry air and gusty southwest
winds eventually spreading across that area. Will keep the RFW in
place but will continue to monitor the potential for some
adjustments to it this afternoon.

Previous discussion: Critical fire weather conditions are
expected to develop once again this afternoon, primarily across
the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and western South Plains.
Unseasonably warm temperatures will develop this afternoon with
highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s across the FA. Additionally,
breezy to low end windy conditions are expected with wind speeds
of 20 to 30 mph and gusts to 40 mph with the exception being for
areas off the Caprock where wind speeds will be on the "lighter"
side around 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. A dryline
positioned near the I-27 corridor by daybreak will track east
throughout the day, leading to dry conditions west of the line
with minimum RH values in the low teens across this area. With
RFTI values expected up to 6 along this area warranted an upgrade
of the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for the far
southwestern Texas Panhandle and western South Plains which is in
effect from 10 AM this morning until 7 PM this evening. A
Rangeland Fire Danger statement is in effect for the I-27 corridor
where RFTIs will be slightly lower, resulting in elevated fire
weather conditions.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ033-034-039-
040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...07