409
FXUS64 KLUB 222313
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
613 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

 - Dry and hot weather is expected through the weekend.

 - A strong cold front is forecast to arrive Tuesday, and will be
   accompanied by much cooler temperatures.

 - Thunderstorm chances return to the forecast area through most
   of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

In the upper levels, a high remains stationary over the Four
Corners, while a weakness in a ridge over East Texas extending into
the mid-atlantic states will phase into a low that is moving east
across the Great Lakes region. A mid-level moisture plume associated
with frontogenesis extends from the Great Lakes to Baja California
that will move Southeast into the Texas Panhandle by mid-morning
Saturday.

Local conditions will remain seasonably hot and dry, with light an
variable winds. A very weak dry front will move into the extreme
southern Texas Panhandle by Saturday afternoon, with virtually no
temperature change on either side.

Ford

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

The persistent upper level ridge will begin to suppress, while also
amplifying upstream, as the large-scale trough translating through
the Canadian provinces digs into portions of the eastern CONUS. This
will allow for northwest flow aloft to prevail across the region,
leading to the return of precipitation chances by early next week.
The center of the upper level high associated with the upper level
ridge will continue to push southward encompassing much of the state
of Texas through early next week. This steering flow will allow for
a plume of subtropical moisture to enter the FA, around the H3 to H7
level, as it continues to wrap around the eastern edge of the high.
At the surface, winds are expected to maintain an easterly component
to them as the surface high remains to our east as a surface trough
sets up across eastern New Mexico. This will not only aid in
increased moisture into the region, but it will also help keep
temperatures from climbing too much with highs expected in the mid
90s Sunday and Monday. Additionally, we will see the return of daily
chances for diurnally driven afternoon showers and thunderstorms by
Sunday evening as perturbations track through the region, interacting
with the increased moisture in place. Showers and thunderstorms on
Sunday look to remain confined to the far southern Texas Panhandle,
as steering flow is oriented more west-northwest. However by Monday,
steering flow becomes more northwesterly and stronger as the base of
the trough digs into portions of the Southern Plains. This will lead
to better forcing dynamics across the region, along with better
steering flow, to lead to more widespread precipitation chances each
afternoon Monday through Thursday. One caveat to precipitation
chances, which will have to be evaluated as next week approaches, is
how any outflow boundaries, lingering cloud cover, and the evolution
of the trough affects precipitation chances.

The main story of the extended period is the chance for our first
strong front by early to mid next week. Ensemble guidance has become
in better agreement with a decently strong cold front entering the
region by early next week. Compared to previous runs, both the
deterministic GFS and ECMWF models now portray the front entering
the far southeastern Texas Panhandle by early Tuesday morning. This
is nearly a 24 hour difference compared to model runs this time
yesterday, with models now in more agreement with a stronger and
faster progression of the front similar to what the GFS had
initially. This has allowed for increased confidence in terms of
fall-like temperatures next week with Tuesday highs in the upper 70s
to lower 80s as post frontal northerly winds bring in CAA from the
north. For now, will run with these NBM temperatures but they may
need to be adjusted in the coming days. Temperatures will remain on
the cooler side Wednesday, as the atmosphere begins to recover as
winds become southerly, returning to the mid 90s by next Thursday as
southwesterly surface winds as lee troughing develops to our north.
Models bring a secondary front to the region by the end of the
period, but will not dive into the specifics on that just yet but we
may see the return of cooler fall-like temperatures into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

VFR conditions to persist through the TAF period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...07