Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
870 FXUS64 KLUB 252313 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 513 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 511 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 - Chilly tonight with cool temperatures continuing into Wednesday. - Seasonably mild and dry for the second half of this week. - Cooler temperatures and active weather possible this weekend through early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1132 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 The cold front is making its final push southward, reaching our southern zones as of 11 AM. While highs this afternoon will be a few degrees cooler than Monday`s, the more noticeable change will be Wednesday`s highs which will average in the mid 50s area wide. Surface winds will veer to the south by Wednesday afternoon as a surface low develops over northeastern New Mexico. Low end breezy conditions will be possible across our northwestern zones by mid to late Wednesday afternoon as a result of the surface low. As for tonight, surface high pressure will settle over the region allowing for winds to be light and variable. This will also allow overnight lows to drop to the freezing mark or colder across most of the region. Our southeast zones will be the warmest as usual with lows in the mid 30s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1132 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 Overall benign weather is expected through Friday. A large area of surface high pressure will dominate the Missouri and Mississippi River Valleys Thursday and Friday as surface lee troughing dominates to our northwest. This will keep surface winds out of the south and highs around 60. An upper low is progged to move inland across the Pacific Northwest by late Thursday, quickly transitioning to an open wave trough. The upper trough will be relatively fast moving with the trough axis progged to be over the foothills of the Rockies by late Friday. A surface low is expected to develop across eastern Colorado ahead of the approaching upper trough and will, in turn, bring breezy southerly winds to the region. Models have been developing convection along a weak dryline Friday afternoon across our far eastern zones. This is followed by a quick moving cold front mid to late Saturday morning as the upper trough axis pushes to our east. Models also continue to show light precip just behind the front across our northern zones Saturday afternoon and evening. There is very low confidence in this at the moment. The progressive nature of the upper trough along with the positive tilt usually result in dry systems. There is higher confidence, however, in much cooler temperatures moving into the region behind the front. Currently the forecast will reflect highs in the 40s Sunday and Monday with lows in the 20s area wide. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 511 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 VFR is expected to prevail through this TAF period. Initially breezy northeast winds will weaken gradually after sunset. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...51 LONG TERM....51 AVIATION...30