Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
388 FXUS64 KLUB 082318 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 518 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 518 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 - Breezy and unseasonably warm temperatures expected Tuesday before a cold front early Wednesday. - A secondary cold front Friday will bring cooler temperatures through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1111 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Sunny and quiet conditions will continue through the rest of today. In the mid/upper levels, northwesterly flow will prevail for the short term period as a shortwave translates over the Great Lakes region and upper ridging builds off the coast of SoCal. Breezy southwesterly winds on the surface and mostly sunny skies will warm temperatures to the 60s across the region by this afternoon. Westerly winds will weaken after sunset and remain light overnight. Below freezing lows are forecast tonight for much of the region, although some areas off the Caprock will see "warmer" highs in the upper 30s. A warmer and breezy Tuesday is expected with tightening of the pressure gradient due to a surface low translating over the Great Lakes region will increase west to southwesterly winds through the afternoon. Winds were slightly bumped up from NBM to match closer to MOS guidance with wind speeds up to 20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph forecast. West to southwesterly surface flow and mostly sunny skies will warm high temperatures up to upper 60s and lower 70s across the region. Otherwise, conditions remain dry. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1111 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 The main focus of the extended period will be a couple of cold fronts progged to push through the region through the end of the week. To start off the extended forecast, in the mid/upper levels, northwesterly flow will continue to prevail as another trough translates over the Great Lakes region and the ridging persists off the coast of SoCal. On the surface, a cold front will push through the region early Wednesday. Breezy north to northeast winds will follow the front, however are expected not expected to persist long and should weaken by the afternoon. NBM post-frontal winds were underestimated, therefore increased using NBM75th. CAA from the front, although weak, will cool highs back into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Winds will veer back to the south by the end of the day as a lee surface trough develops over Colorado. Height rises and southwesterly surface flow will warm temperatures Thursday to well above (~15-20 degrees) seasonal normal with highs in the 70s across the region. The warm up does not last long as a secondary cold front is progged to push southwestward through the region Friday afternoon bringing cooler temperatures for the weekend. However, as this set up is still a few days out and timing of the FROPA may change. Therefore, can expect to see changes to Friday highs for future forecasts. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 518 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 VFR with light winds overnight, becoming westerly at 15-20 knots at LBB and PVW toward noon. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...93