126
FXUS64 KLUB 191934
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
234 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

The upper low is currently situated over Arizona and is nearly
stationary. This has kept most precip activity confined to central
New Mexico. Convection will mostly remain west of the FA this
afternoon and tonight as the upper low remains in place. Precip
activity over the FA, mainly across the Caprock, has been in the
form of light drizzle. This has also created aviation issues by
dropping ceilings to 300 feet at LBB. Some improvement is expected
by the evening as slightly drier air, as shown on WV imagery, pushes
in from south of the FA. Cloud cover will continue to remain over
much of the area tonight and will help keep overnight temps similar
to last night, mid to upper 50s. Some clearing is expected across
the Rolling Plains late tomorrow morning into the afternoon as the
upper low pushes northeastward into Utah. This movement will also
reduce what little convective chances that remain over our
northwestern zones as lift is pulled westward. Some PoP has been
retained across our western zones as there is still marginal lift in
the vicinity.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Models continue to remain in good agreement depicting the closed
upper low lingering over the Four Corners region through late
Sunday, then transitioning into an open wave as it quickly lifts
northeastward early Monday. This will result in one final period
of rain chances on Monday as a modified Pacific front shifts
quickly eastward over our area, but the highest PoPs remain
confined to our north with the upper wave progged to track over SE
CO and SW KS. Nevertheless, some isolated to scattered showers
are expected to accompany the front eastward across our central
and northern counties with southern portions of the South Plains
and Rolling Plains likely remaining dry. Some thunderstorms are
also possible, but modest instability and weakening shear will
keep the severe threat very low.

Clearing skies and much drier conditions return as early as Monday
afternoon as a subsident airmass settles overhead and broad low
amplitude upper ridging builds in from the southwest. This will
bring a return of above normal temperatures with highs mainly in
the 80s over most of the region and dry weather persisting
through the rest of the week. Some guidance indicates potential
for a weak cold front to push southward through our area in the
Wed-Thu timeframe which may bring a brief cool-down late week, but
for now consensus supports above normal highs continuing through
the end of the extended forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

At CDS, VFR conditions will prevail through the duration of the
TAF cycle. LBB and PVW will continue to fluctuate between low end
MVFR and high end IFR through at least 22Z before improving to mid
to high end MVFR. Occasional -DZ will also be possible during
this time. There is still a very low chance for -TSRA through 06Z,
but confidence is very low. VFR conditions are expected to return
to both terminals after 00Z.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...51