Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
378 FXUS64 KLUB 071109 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 509 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 441 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 - Cool weather is expected today, followed by a warm-up through the middle of the week. - Chilly weather returns by Friday following the passage of a strong cold front. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1201 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 In the mid/upper-levels, a broad, longwave trough continues to move slowly eastward over the central and eastern half of the U.S., with the backside of the trough now emerging over the Rocky Mountains and into the High Plains. Farther west, a subtropical ridge over the northeastern Pacific Ocean was gradually amplifying over, which will cause the longwave trough to continue shifting eastward while also attenuating in amplitude over the next 24+ hours. A shortwave impulse was detected on water-vapor imagery over the central Rocky Mountains, and this impulse will continue to surge southeastward along the leading edge of a 300 mb jet streak near 100 kt and ultimately reinforce the passage of the synoptic cold front across the region today. At the surface, a weak cyclone was located between CDS and VUF (6666 Ranch) on WTM data, with another night of a meso-beta-scale cold front extending to its south along the immediate lee of the Caprock Escarpment. A backdoor-like, quasi-stationary front, which was previously the inverted, post-frontal surface trough trailing the prior meso-beta-scale cold front from last night, was oozing westward along the Upper Red River Valley. Adiabatic expansion associated with the easterly flow has resulted in rapid saturation of the airmass, with the ASOS at CDS reporting ceilings down to 200 ft and visibility of one-half mile. As stated in the forecast update issued at 07/0232Z, prospects for fog will increase across the rest of the Rolling Plains through sunrise. However, coverage of fog was increased across the eastern column of counties, and it is possible that a Dense Fog Advisory may be needed at some point before sunrise for those locales. The surface low will continue to rotate southeastward, and the respective meso-beta-scale fronts, in addition to the backdoor-like, quasi-stationary front, will be overtaken by the synoptic cold front later this morning. Fog should dissipate quickly after sunrise, as surface winds shift northward and drier air (typical of katafronts) advects into the CWA. Post-frontal mixing heights will ascend above 700 mb by solar noon, with a strong subsidence layer descending over W TX following the passage of the shortwave impulse. Temperatures were lowered to the cooler side of the statistical guidance, with highs expected to peak in the middle 50s area-wide. Winds will become light and variable overnight into Monday morning, with lows bottoming out in the middle-upper 20s for most as the post-frontal surface high settles into the region. Sincavage && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 1201 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Confluent flow will persist over W TX Monday, as the longwave trough further attenuates while crossing over the Eastern Seaboard, which will allow the subtropical ridge to continue to amplify and shift eastward over the northeastern Pacific Ocean. An intense jet streak will arc through the apex of the ridge that will be centered over the 49th parallel, inducing large-scale pressure falls across the Great Plains and resulting in a restoration of southwesterly winds across the CWA. Temperatures will gradually warm in response to the return flow, with highs peaking in the lower-middle 60s area-wide Monday. Meanwhile, a compact, fast-moving, shortwave trough is forecast to translate through the apex of the subtropical ridge following the completion of a high-latitude, anticyclonic wave break over the far northern Pacific Ocean. Leeward pressure falls will steepen slightly more compared to Monday as cyclogenesis occurs in the vicinity of the MN River Valley, with winds forecast to veer westward and become breezy Tuesday. The emergence of this shortwave trough into the Great Lakes region will also result in the return of broadly cyclonic flow over the MS River Valley while also modulating the amplitude of the ridging to the west, with the attendant cold front forecast to arrive by early Wednesday morning as it begins to weaken. Slightly cooler weather will follow Wednesday, but only by a couple of degrees, as the already weak CAA will cease quickly, with winds transitioning to the south by Wednesday night. Additional series of shortwave troughs are forecast to propagate southeastward along the upstream tranche of the longer-wave trough by the end of the week, with a strong cold front, accompanied by a modifying cP airmass, arriving by Thursday afternoon. This is a faster progression compared to 24 hours ago, but the bulk of the global NWP guidance reflects this earlier timing, and NBM has followed suit. Adjustments to the temperatures for Thursday may be needed in the next couple of days; however, confidence is high in the return for chilly weather by Friday and into next weekend, with no signs of precipitation. Sincavage && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 441 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 VFR conditions will prevail. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...51