Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
095 FXUS64 KLUB 292303 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 503 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 501 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 - A strong cold front will bring breezy conditions to the region this afternoon, followed by notably colder weather Sunday and Monday. - Generally cooler and dry next week with possible light precipitation on Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1132 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 A strong cold front was currently moving through the region ushering in much colder temperatures for the remainder of the weekend into Monday. Breezy northeasterly winds will prevail through the rest of the afternoon into the early evening with moderate pressure rises on the order of 4-5mb/3hr behind the front. Strong cold air advection will spill into the area tonight stemming from a 1040mb surface ridge oozing into the northern and central Plains. As winds go light overnight, strong cold air advection will allow temperatures to fall despite increasing low level cloud cover. The lightest winds will likely be in the extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle leading to temperatures in the teens Sunday morning with 20s elsewhere. Sunday will be extremely cold with forecast high temperatures near the record lowest maximum of 35F in Lubbock. Increasing cloud cover with continued cold air advection will keep temperatures well below seasonal averages on Sunday. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1132 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 We will see a highly amplified pattern for at least the first half of next week with a rex block in the eastern Pacific. The upper level pattern will lose some amplification by the second half of the week with the blocking pattern beginning to break down. For Monday, guidance has trended a little faster with a short wave trough diving out of the central Rockies into the Plains. A secondary cold front associated with this short wave trough will provide a reinforcing shot of cold air on Monday. Temperatures may struggle to get out of the 40s on Monday afternoon. Cold temperatures will scoot east on Tuesday and Wednesday with a rise in 850mb temperatures. A short wave trough moving from the Pacific Northwest into the Intermountain West on Tuesday will generate surface cyclogenesis in lee of the Rockies. Winds will swing around to the southwest and become breezy allowing for a warm up in temperatures. However, confidence in the temperature forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday is low. This is due to the historical fact models tend to erode these cold air masses too quickly. The aforementioned short wave trough will continue to dive southward across the Intermountain West on Thursday but spread is high in model solutions. National blended guidance gives chance of precipitation on Thursday but given the amount of spread in guidance including AI-GEFS, confidence in this precipitation is low at the moment. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 501 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the duration of the TAF cycle. Stratus is expected once again early Sunday morning at all TAF sites, but CIGs are expected to remain VFR at this time. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...51