Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
006 FXUS64 KLUB 220538 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1138 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1123 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 - Patchy fog possible over the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and portions of the South Plains before sunrise. - Widespread rain is expected across the entire region on Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 1123 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 A weak, northwest to southeast oriented cold front has pushed through much of the region just before midnight. Light northerly surface flow following the front is expected to prevail overnight through early Saturday morning. Moist air will continue to fill in over much of the FA with current surface observations showing RH values in the 90s behind the front. The combination of the moist air and light winds will bring chances for patchy fog across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and portions of the South Plains beginning around 3 AM. Any fog that develops is expected to dissipate around sunrise. The rest of today should be quiet with upper ridging over the region through today ahead of the next upper system which is expected to reach the Four Corners region by late tonight. Mild highs in the 60s are expected across the region with light northerly winds gradually shifting to the south through the latter half of the day. Mostly cloudy skies will fill in from west to east overnight keeping lows in the upper 30s to 40s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1123 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 The long term forecast will start off with an active weather Sunday. An upper level low will be positioned near the Four Corners region early Sunday and is projected to trek northeast towards the Central Plains through the day. This progression will position an upper level jet over much of the region Sunday. Increasing southerly surface flow in response to the development of a lee surface trough north of the region will boost low-level moisture. The combination of large scale forcing from the upper low and jet and plenty of moisture will bring widespread rain chances beginning early Sunday over the southern South Plains and expected to expand over the rest of the region through the day. Heavy rain with localized flooding will be possible, especially over the Rolling Plains with PWAT values up to 1.25 inches. Rain chances diminish northwest to southeast through Sunday evening and overnight as the upper trough pushes eastward away from the region, diminishing the large scale forcing and a Pacific front pushing eastward through the region pushing in a drier air mass. Monday will be a pleasant day with slightly above normal highs in the upper 60s to 70s due to moderate westerly winds through the afternoon. A cold front is progged to push southward through the region Tuesday afternoon bringing below freezing temperatures for much of the region overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday. However, these cooler air mass does not last long as slightly above seasonal normal temperatures are expected for the latter half of the week as surface winds shift back to the south. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1123 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 Fog prospects for Saturday morning at LBB continue to trend lower, so earlier MVFR visbys were removed. PVW still holds some potential of MVFR or lower visbys for a few hours after sunrise. Light winds continue. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...93