Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
507 FXUS64 KLUB 021754 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1154 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1147 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 - The next cold front arrives Wednesday. - Colder with chances of snow Wednesday night and Thursday mainly northern half of the forecast area. - Quiet and warmer conditions Friday through Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1147 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 Moderation of temperatures that is underway today with a return to south and southwest surface winds will result in a significantly warmer night tonight, although lows will likely not be too far off normal. Northwest flow aloft will back to westerly by the end of today ahead of a mid/upper level trough digging southeastward over the Great Basin. Meanwhile, another mid/upper trough swinging eastward over Ontario will drive the next cold air mass southward down the Great Plains tonight with an arrival in the forecast area toward sunrise Wednesday and passage through the southern counties by noon leading a pretty good gradient in high temperatures of a little over ten degrees from northwest to southeast across the forecast area. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1147 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 Cloud cover will increase Wednesday evening ahead of the upper trough over that will be moving from the Great Basin to the Four Corners/Colorado Rockies while at the surface cold advection continues behind the Wednesday cold front passage. The big question today is precipitation chances ahead of the approaching upper trough. The setup with a highly positively-tilted trough, filling as it moves eastward, with a dry subcloud air mass, and likely limited time horizon to moisten said air mass really suggests limited potential for measurable precipitation, favoring flurries to a very light dusting of snow. That said, any bit of a banded structure of stronger upright lifting could lead to greater precipitation production sufficient to moisten the subcloud layer to support measurable precipitation. The best chance of that to happen will occur across the northwestern counties with lowering chances spreading to the east and south. At this point will keep precip chances limited to the 20-30 percent range given said reasoning. Lift should end by or around noon Thursday with precip chances falling quickly into non-mentionable range. Some moderation of temperatures into the middle 40s will be possible western counties where some afternoon sunshine is more likely with middle 30s to lower 40s expected to the east. The remainder of the forecast period looks to be quiet. A broader, more stagnant trough will hang out from the Great Lakes to Baja California keeping dry west to northwest flow overhead through Friday at which point it kicks quickly eastward. Moisture will be even more limited with this trough and lift focused well to the south to be a concern for precipitation at this time. A return to south to southwest low level flow and abundant insolation will lead to a quick warmup back to near normal highs on Friday. This will be followed by an increase in heights and thicknesses behind the departing mid/upper trough this weekend and early next week with temperatures (both highs and lows) near to around five degrees warmer than normal through that portion of the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1147 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 VFR conditions are expected to continue, as winds begin to increase this afternoon with gusts up to 30 knots possible at all TAF sites. Expect winds to diminish by sunset, LLWS will likely develop at KPVW and KCDS. There remains a chance LLWS develops at KLBB, although confidence remains too low for a TAF mention at this time. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...12