032
FXUS64 KLUB 181109
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
609 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 608 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

 - Unseasonably hot temperatures will continue, with highs
   exceeding 105 degrees off the Caprock over the next several
   days.

 - Low storm chances return late Wednesday and may continue
   through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1039 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

The upper level ridge axis which currently stretches from SoCal over
the desert SW and over much of TX will extend our period of hot
weather for a few more days while also bringing triple digit
temperatures back to the entire forecast area. 850mb temps are
progged to rise into the 30-32C range Tuesday afternoon, which
will result in high temperatures above 105F over our lower
elevation zones off the Caprock where a Heat Advisory is in effect
for the afternoon hours. Temperatures will top out in the 100 to
104 range farther west, but will nevertheless still be hot for
this time of year (average temperatures for mid August are in the
mid 90s). Continued subsidence aloft will keep rain chances at
zero Tuesday through Tuesday night, with very mild lows in the 70s
to low 80s by Wednesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1039 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Ridging aloft will slowly begin to shift westward beginning midweek,
but generally neutral height tendencies will prolong our stretch of
triple digit highs through Wednesday with another day of Heat
Advisory conditions (105F+) likely off the Caprock. Thereafter, flow
aloft is progged to turn a bit more northwesterly by Thursday
before the ridge once again shifts back eastward and centers over
our area by the weekend. This evolution will bring a short window
for evening storms to translate off the NM high terrain and into
West TX on Wednesday or Thursday evening, but most solutions are
not particularly bullish on precip potential locally given rather
weak steering flow. There are some indications that a bit of
moisture trapped beneath the ridge may allow for a few storms any
day from Friday through the weekend, but potential is still too
low for mentionable PoPs at this time. Otherwise, there is high
confidence that temperatures will remain above average through the
weekend and into early next week with no indications of any major
pattern change.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

VFR conditions continue through the period, with winds generally
out of the southwest at 10-15 kts.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
for TXZ024>026-031-032-037-038-042>044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...24