Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
620 FXUS64 KLUB 161122 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 522 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 522 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 - Slightly cooler to start the week although still unseasonably warm for November. - Cooler and wetter conditions return by mid-week through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1127 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 Much cooler weather is expected in the short term forecast, thanks to the backdoor FROPA passing through the region late this evening. Post frontal winds have shifted out of the northeast across much of the FA as of 9 PM CST, and we expect this trend to continue with the FROPA expected to exit our most southern row of counties around midnight or slightly beforehand. These northerly winds will work to bring in a cooler airmass from the north into the Caprock region overnight and Sunday. As a result we will finally see a reprieve from the hot temperatures Sunday, although we are still expected to be at least 10 to 15 degrees above normal by November standards with highs in the mid to upper 70s to around 80 degrees expected. Northeast winds will begin to veer out of the southeast by the early afternoon as the surface high shifts east and a surface trough develops to our northeast. By the late evening/overnight hours, winds will have turned out of the south-southwest as the surface trough deepens and digs into southeastern CO ahead of the shortwave trough translating from the Four Corners region into the Central Plains. As southwest surface winds return, we can expect the shallow cooler airmass to quickly mix out as we head into the work week. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1127 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 By the start of the extended period, the H5 shortwave trough is expected to be positioned across the Four Corners region where it looks to become negatively tilted as it tracks into the Central Plains through the start of the work week. In response, flow aloft across the region will turn more southwesterly. Meanwhile at the surface, lee-side pressure falls will tighten the pressure gradient across the West Texas/Texas Panhandle region as the H5 trough ejects northeast. As a result of this, we expect breezy southwest conditions to develop Monday with wind speeds around 15 to 20 mph, with the strongest speeds fixated across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle. Although we will be cooler compared to temperatures we saw at the end of this past week, upslope winds will work to push in WAA into the region. Which, combined with the expectation of clear skies and these breezy southwest winds will lead to warm temperatures in the 70s and 80s Monday and Tuesday. Although not mentionable, there remains a non-zero chance for an isolated showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday. The uncertainty remains in regards to the amount of moisture able to transport into the area, with the bulk of the moisture residing off to our east across SJT and OUNs area. By mid-week, a secondary and deeper upper level trough will move onshore the California coastline and into the Desert Southwest region. As this trough approaches from the west, southwest flow aloft will continue to transport moisture into the region out ahead of the system. Additionally, plentiful moisture looks to be associated with this system which in combination with the H5 60+ knot jet streak moving in will allow for widespread precipitation chances Wednesday and Thursday. Despite southerly surface winds, temperatures will remain cooler through mid-week as precipitation along with associated cloud cover lingers. As we head towards the end of the weekend, models hint at another upper level system developing off to the west which could result in wetter and cooler conditions continuing through the weekend. However, as mentioned in previous forecasts, models continue to be in disagreement with the placement and timing of this system given how far out it is. Will opt to maintain NBM cooler temperatures towards the end of the extended with mentionable PoPs returning by as early as next Sunday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 522 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 VFR will prevail through this TAF period. Winds initially out of the northeast this morning will gradually veer to southeasterly by about midday. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...30