Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
226 FXUS64 KLUB 040547 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1247 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1231 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 - Dry conditions this afternoon, but shower and thunderstorm chances return Saturday afternoon and continue through Monday. - Warmer and dryer conditions expected by the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1231 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 After days of showers, we will finally get a break today. The inverted upper trough will track through the Central Plains as a high builds over Arizona and New Mexico. The monsoonal moisture plume will move away as subsidence fills in overhead from the high to our east. Shower chances will diminish through the early morning hours, however chances remain over eastern portions through the afternoon. Cloudy skies will diminish west to east through the day allowing warmer temperatures with highs in the lower 90s over western zones. Cloudy skies that linger over eastern zones through the evening will keep eastern zones cooler with highs in the mid to upper 80s. A dryline will set up along the TX/NM border this afternoon. Afternoon heating will generate moderate instability east of the dryline and southerly surface flow will maintain low-level moisture. With these two parameters in play, an isolated thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out, however chances remain low. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 1231 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Shower and thunderstorm chances return Saturday afternoon and should continue through Monday as the upper level moisture fills back in over the region and prevailing southerly surface flow will maintain low-level moisture. A dryline remains over the TX/NM border through Saturday. With convergence along the dryline and moderate instability to the east of the dryline, there are chances for isolated severe thunderstorms with the possibility of producing large hail, strong wind gusts, and periods of heavy rainfall. Dry and mostly clear sky conditions are expected Tuesday and onwards as an upper high remains stagnant over Arizona and New Mexico but looks to expand towards the Four Corners region. By mid-week, an upper trough will push on shore over the Pacific Northwest and will track east through the Intermountain West and Central Plains by the end of next week. Temperatures through Monday remain in the upper 80s to low 90s region wide but should gradually warm into the mid to upper 90s by the end of the week. There is a possibility for storms to develop over eastern portions of New Mexico that could push into northwestern portions of our region every evening from Tuesday through Thursday, however the chances are low at the moment. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 IFR CIGS are likely at all TAF sites through the rest of this morning with abundant moisture in place across the region. Conditions are expected to improve to MVFR and VFR early Friday afternoon as moisture clears out of the area. There is a small chance of isolated thunderstorms before moisture clears out this afternoon but chances are too low to mention in the TAF. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...01