Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
665 FXUS64 KLUB 042327 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 627 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 622 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 - Mild and moist tonight with patchy fog possible early Saturday morning. - Humid and seasonably warm/hot, with a chance of evening storms Saturday. - Warmer drier weather is expected for the week ahead. Relatively low rain chances remain in parts of the region through Monday evening. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 It remains quite humid out, with midday dewpoints mostly in the lower to middle 70s! However, drier air is moving in from the west aloft, which is helping to scatter and lift the stratus and limit precipitation locally. That said, we did see a few tiny showers in the Rolling Plains earlier, and despite being small, they were efficient rain producers if you were under them. For example, the Aspermont WTM picked up 0.75 inches from one shower. Isolated showers will remain possible in the Rolling Plains this afternoon, though coverage will be limited. Otherwise, increased insolation will result in a warm afternoon (compared to recent days), and with the humidity, it will feel even warmer. The surface flow is veering in eastern NM, and the dryline is progged to mix into our western zones late this afternoon. There is an outside chance of isolated convective development along the dryline late today, but drying aloft in combination with subsidence on the periphery of the large MCS downstate (that has produced extreme flooding in parts of Central Texas) will likely keep deep moist convection from forming locally. This is supported by most high-res guidance and have maintained the non-mentionable PoPs from the NBM. Light upslope winds, mostly clear skies and the very humid low- levels will support the potential for stratus and/or fog development tonight. Hence, we have added a patchy fog mention area wide from 08- 14Z Saturday. Thereafter, the stratus/fog will lift/scatter, leading to another warm and humid afternoon. Thunderstorm development is expected to occur over the higher terrain of northeast NM and perhaps down the dryline, which is expected to reside in eastern NM Saturday afternoon. This activity could move into our western/northwestern counties, but it would likely be after 00Z. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Previous forecast remains on track showing continued warmer drier air in the region as an upper high builds in the southwest U.S. Relatively mild summer highs near 90 or lower 90s are expected through Wednesday, then warming to the upper 90s later in the week. Thunderstorm chances remain on the low side, just showing isolated storms through Monday evening and then dropping from the forecast but slight chances returning toward the end of the week. We raised the pops slightly above the NBM Saturday evening for the northwest counties. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 VFR conditions are expected to continue this evening at all terminals with the chances of VCTS looking even more less likely at KCDS. Conditions look to decrease around midnight as low clouds and fog begin to fill in, specifically for areas off the Caprock, but will likely threaten all terminals. Confidence in how low clouds get remains uncertain, but confidence remains high enough for at least an IFR mention in the TAFs, with LIFR conditions possible as well. Low CIGS will move into KCDS around midnight and spread west into KPVW and KLBB shortly after midnight. Conditions will begin to improve around mid-day with cloud cover diminishing from west to east. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...12