Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
840 FXUS64 KLUB 192258 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 558 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 - Showers and storms are forecast to linger into Wednesday, with a drying trend to follow through this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 1248 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 A quasi-stationary pattern remains in place over much of the western CONUS with upper level ridging centered near the Four Corners with the forecast area on the southeastern flank of the upper high. Surface moisture remains relatively rich across the forecast this afternoon while a narrow axis of mid level moisture running overhead is contributing to deepen the moisture over the region. Finally, surface flow today is pretty light with no noteworthy areas of low level convergence noted. There is some upper level support noted over western Kansas that could rotate southwestward in the northeasterly flow aloft tonight. This leaves us with diurnally driven afternoon convection fired mainly by reaching convective temperature with some organization possible on outflow boundaries to begin with and the potential for additional development and possibly organization should the central High Plains short wave trough rotate to the southwest. Currently do not see enough to focus too much on any one area and will thus keep afternoon to overnight PoPs in a range from 20 to 30 percent. Drier mid level air is progged to advect southeastward from the central Plains on Wednesday with the models showing isolated convection focused mainly across the southwestern half to third of the forecast area. In general, will run with that solution but reality has been slower to end thunderstorm chances the last few days than the models have been, so some caution will be exercised in this regard. Meanwhile, cannot argue much with NBM temperatures which are inline with or just a bit above MOS values. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1248 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 The upper ridge to our west will remain dominant over much of the Intermountain West into the coming weekend with the forecast area remaining under northeasterly flow aloft. The models, and thus NBM, continues to trend lower for precip chances in the latter half of the week, although as stated above, reality has been slower than the models. Later in the weekend a large upper low moves southeastward across Canada to Ontario with enough westward extension of the associated trough to bring some cyclonic flow to the central Great Plains and breaking down the western ridge on the eastern flank. The result for the forecast area will be a transition to more of a northwest flow pattern and increase in precip chances late in the period. Temperatures at or a bit above normal look fine at this time, barring an unexpected strengthening of the ridge or return to a downslope, westerly surface component. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 556 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Isolated rain showers and thunderstorms around the area were already decreasing in coverage early this evening with a very low chance of affecting any TAF sites for the rest of the evening. A weak wind shift will move through the area early Wednesday morning but speeds are expected to remain light. There is a small chance again of isolated showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon but chances are too low to mention in the TAF at the moment. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...01