381
FXUS64 KLUB 141127
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
627 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Hot, dry, and windy conditions again expected today. A Wind
   Advisory has been issued for the South Plains and far SW
   Panhandle.

 - Generally warm and dry weather will continue into early next
   week with low storm chances for far eastern portions of the
   area this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 206 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Westerly winds will remain breezy at 10-20 mph overnight as a ~990
mb surface low stalls over eastern CO. This will allow for very mild
overnight low temperatures generally in the mid 60s. Hot, dry, and
windy conditions will be the theme again today with a very similar
atmospheric setup as yesterday. Sustained winds of 25-35 mph with
gusts to 45 will be seen on the Caprock, peaking during the late
afternoon/early evening hours. Some additional forcing ahead of an
upper trough axis may lead to slightly higher winds than yesterday
in some locations. With a similar LLJ as well, a Wind Advisory has
been issued for the South Plains and far SW Panhandle. Patchy
blowing dust is also possible, particularly near the TX/NM line. In
any case, all of this will push temperatures well into the 90s
across much of the area, with triple-digits off the Caprock.
Lubbock`s 1996 record of 100 looks safe, however Childress` record
(also 100) may be more attainable. Winds will diminish through the
evening and eventually slightly veer to the NW ahead of an
approaching cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 206 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

A cold front Thursday will bring a slight relief from the heat.
Although SW winds will return by the afternoon, highs will be about
10 degrees cooler area-wide from Tuesday/Wednesday. A broad SW flow
aloft and at the surface brings a gradual warmup into the weekend
with widespread low 90s returning outside of the far SW Panhandle
and northern South Plains, where 80s should hold on. A deep trough
will build across the west early next week, bringing falling heights
and slightly cooler temperatures.

A series of upper shortwaves will track across the area through the
weekend. While it remains too early to completely rule out
thunderstorm chances, the majority of the associated QPF still
looks to stay east of the CWA concurrent with the areas of best
PVA/forcing ahead of the waves. Thus the row of counties from
Childress through Stonewall would have the relatively highest
probabilities Saturday and Sunday evenings. The aforementioned
trough next week will bring a similar setup, however again most of
the associated moisture looks to remain off to the east. Stay
tuned to see how everything evolves.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

West-southwest winds to increase this morning and a bit more this
afternoon with gusts to 35 kts but should diminish some this
evening. Some BLDU will be possible at KLBB and KPVW but will keep
mention out of the TAFs at this time. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are expected.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
for TXZ021>023-027>029-033>035-039>041.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...07