176
FXUS64 KLUB 110525
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1225 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1224 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible Friday afternoon and
   evening, mainly on the Caprock.

 - Hot and dry this weekend with possible record highs Saturday.

 - Daily thunderstorm chances next week, generally favoring the
   Caprock.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Remaining storms are weakening should taper off in the next few
hours. A quiet night remains expected with partly cloudy skies and
lows ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s. An upper ridge building to
the west Friday combined with a return to southerly surface flow
will cause temperatures to increase by a few degrees from Thursday.
Highs will reach either side of 100 for most locations. A weak upper
shortwave still looks to move through the area during the
afternoon/evening hours. As the cap will be stronger given the
aforementioned ridge building, any storms that initiate should
remain quite isolated with severe weather being unlikely. Highest
chances are expected generally over the western and central South
Plains. A hot and dry weekend thereafter remains expected with
heights continuing to rise as the center of the ridge moves over the
area. Potentially record-breaking highs may occur Saturday with low-
to-mid triple-digits for nearly all locations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Heights will fall on Sunday as the ridge begins to retreat eastward,
however high temperatures remain well above average in the mid 90s
on the Caprock to low triple-digits continuing off the Caprock.
Monday is trending drier models are now indicating a upper low over
the northern Great Plains taking a more northeasterly trajectory and
deamplifying as it enters Canada. This flow orientation would keep
nearly all of the Pacific/monsoonal moisture off to the north and
west. Another upper trough will move into the Pacific Northwest on
Tuesday with a low becoming cutoff and stalling over Oregon through
Thursday. As strong ridge over the Southeast will again keep a
majority of the moisture to the north and west, however Tuesday
evening on the Caprock looks to see the greatest chance of storms at
this point before the ridge shifts eastward mid-to-late week. NBM
has been retained although it is likely a bit heavy-handed as usual
for that time frame, however should start dropping with future
forecasts if current trends continue. Temperatures will start slowly
dropping each day, potentially into the mid 80s over the far
southwest Panhandle towards the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

A few showers linger in the vicinity of KLBB early this morning,
as we expect this activity to continue to decrease over the next
several hours. Winds will remain relatively light around 5-10kts
with VFR conditions prevailing through the TAF period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...12