783
FXUS64 KLUB 051944
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
244 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Occasionally heavy snow ending tonight from W-E. Winter Storm
   Warning and Winter Weather Advisory remain in effect until 1 AM
   Sunday.

 - Quiet weather returns on Sunday with temperatures rising well
   above normal by midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

The heaviest snow band has remain parked over much of the central
South Plains this afternoon immediately north of a 700 mb low
estimated near Lamesa. This low was focusing a robust conveyor of
moist 30 knot easterlies in the 295-300K layer which is helping
sustain a thicker DGZ growth zone relative to areas farther
northwest where snowfall rates have been markedly lower. Current
satellite and radar trends suggest this band of heavy snow will
continue to slowly pivot northeast and expand into the Childress
area. Temps become more marginal off the Caprock and as such we
don`t expect much in the way of impactful accumulations there until
after sunset when an inch or less seems reasonable. Areas on the
Caprock mainly from Lubbock and Plainview to Floydada and Silverton
could easily see 2 to 4 inches with lesser amounts on roads.

Snow will decline in coverage and intensity from W-E tonight as the
lagging 500 mb low tracks from southeast NM this evening into
southwest OK by daybreak. Stratus will also break out allowing temps
to crater into the 20s in many areas, so any wet roads will be prone
to black ice until late morning Sunday. Surface ridging tomorrow
will make for lighter winds and despite mostly sunny skies, we still
expect highs to struggle to get out of the lower 50s given such
saturated soils and lingering snow cover in places.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

A shift to much quieter weather awaits the new week thanks to
weaker WNW flow ahead of a transition to longwave ridging over the
western CONUS by the end of the week. This will spur lee troughing
and very mild southwesterly breezes that peak on Wednesday ahead
of a weak cold front making a run for the area Thursday morning.
Models agree nicely in longwave ridging reaching our doorstep by
the end of the week with highs rebounding into the 80s to near 90.
Moisture profiles all week look very paltry following our recent
and widespread soaking.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

Predominantly IFR CIGs and low visbys continue through this
evening before clearing out to VFR from W-E after midnight. A
band of moderate snow will linger over LBB and PVW through this
evening accompanied by a burst of heavier snow later this
afternoon as an upper low lifts across the region. As temps
continue to fall to AOB freezing at LBB this afternoon, snow
accumulations should ensue thus have issued an Airport Weather
Warning for LBB from 21Z until 06Z. Gusty N winds to 30 knots
will taper this evening and trend light overnight.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ021>024-
027>029-033-034.

Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ025-026-
030>032-035>037-039>042.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...93