032
FXUS64 KLUB 222256
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
456 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Could see some sprinkles later today but very low chances
   measurable precipitation.

 - Very mild and dry weather next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 152 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

A sharp short wave trough was currently moving eastward through
southern New Mexico into Far West Texas this afternoon. This
shortwave will primarily track to the south of the South Plains
keeping most of the lift across the Permian Basin. Mid level
moisture will continue to advect into the area for the rest of the
afternoon and evening with the approach of the short wave.
Unfortunately, the atmosphere will remain fairly dry below 700mb
keeping measurable precipitation chances at a minimal value. Virga
and sprinkles will be the most likely outcome from this shortwave
before moving east of the area Sunday morning. A secondary short
wave will approach the area on Sunday passing overhead during the
late afternoon. A weak surface trough will accompany the upper
level trough shifting southwesterly winds to the northwest.
Otherwise, temperatures will further warm on Sunday busting
seasonal averages by five to ten degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 152 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Do not plan for significant changes to the extended forecast. We
should have a weak front Monday evening and then a significantly
stronger, but dry front early Wednesday.
Ahead of the front Monday, dry westerly winds which could elevate
fire weather concerns. Also it`s likely to be the warmest day of
the week as the westerly winds push highs up near the 80 degree
mark in some area. Increased winds slightly from the NBM values. A
more significant front is expected late Tuesday night or early
Wednesday. The latest 2-3 runs of the ECMWF and GFS appear
slightly stronger with the front which will bring gusty northeast
winds and cooler CP air pushes south through the area. Ensembles
show 20-25 mph winds and have shown a pretty good spread in
forecast highs lowering afternoon temperatures from 70s Tuesday to
upper 50s or 60s on Wednesday. The impacts of Wednesday`s front
will be short lived as winds start to back to the west on Thursday
and southwest on Friday with temperatures rebounding slightly.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 452 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

VFR and light winds will continue.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 152 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Although elevated fire weather concerns are not anticipated,
temperatures will further warm on Sunday afternoon leading to
afternoon relative humidity values in the teens area wide. Winds at
the 20 foot level will shift from the west to northwest on Sunday
afternoon with speeds between 10 to 15 mph. Additionally, ERC values
continue to creep upwards but will remain close to average. Chances
for elevated fire weather conditions will be higher for Monday
afternoon. Temperatures will be between 15 and 20 degrees above
seasonal averages along with westerly winds around 15 to 20 mph in
the southwestern South Plains.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...19