903
FXUS64 KLUB 130526
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1226 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1027 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

 - Isolated storms possible on the Caprock during the evening hours
   through Friday.

 - Otherwise hot and dry conditions will persist into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 1027 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Breezy southerly winds will persist overnight keeping overnight lows
mild generally in the mid 70s to low 80s. An upper trough will dig
further into the Pacific Northwest on Thursday somewhat displacing
ridge centered over the Southeast. Much of the day will be similar
to Wednesday with hot and mostly sunny conditions. A Heat Advisory
remains in effect for most areas off the Caprock from 1 PM to 8 PM
Thursday, although as temperatures slightly overperformed from NBM
Wednesday, widespread triple-digits should continue elsewhere as
well.

Shortwaves between the aforementioned trough and ridge will become
more prevalent by evening. The overall atmospheric environment
remains similar to Wednesday evening. Downdraft CAPE values are
in the 1000-1500 J/kg range, with skinny MUCAPE aloft and
unimpressive shear. Nonetheless CAMs are understandably showing
convective initiation generally along and west of I-27. Storms
look to be over a more broad area than Wednesday, however should
still remain isolated to scattered. A few localized gusts to 60
mph are possible, but the overall severe threat remains low at
this time. Any storms should taper off around midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1027 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

The aforementioned upper trough will be less amplified on Friday
although mid-level southwesterly flow should allow for some
monsoonal moisture to find its way into northwestern portions of our
area. These should be confined here given the lack of forcing to the
south and east. Locally strong winds would again be the main
concern with a low severe threat. A ridge over the Southeast will
expand farther westward by Saturday and keep dry conditions
throughout the area into early next week. Temperatures will
slightly cool, although remain in the mid 90s on the Caprock and
low triple- digits off the Caprock.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

VFR with breezy southerly winds, especially during the afternoon.
ISO-SCT TS should develop by late afternoon and continue through
the evening with a likelihood of dry microbursts and some blowing
dust. Will omit TS mention for now as this threat is too distant
and unlikely to pose a direct impact to the terminals.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
for TXZ024>026-031-032-037-038-042>044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...93