Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
291 FXUS64 KLUB 232311 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 611 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 - Thunderstorm chances develop late Sunday and continue through the week. - Strong cold front expected Monday night with below-normal highs for Tuesday and Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of Today through Sunday) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 The noon surface analysis revealed a cold front draped W-E from the far NW TX Panhandle to NW Oklahoma ahead of a thick band of mid clouds. Surface ridging behind this front is forecast to nudge south later today and tonight before backdooring into our northeastern counties overnight while boosting dewpoints there into the middle 60s. Aloft meanwhile, a zonal ridge axis over our area extending from a high centered over the Four Corners will relax tonight as the high drifts south. Although height falls are negligible, the presence of increasingly moist low levels near the front along with a bank of H7 moisture advecting south around the upper high suggests we could see spotty elevated showers early Sunday morning in our northeastern counties. PoPs were kept below mention for this otherwise marginal and weakly-forced setup. For Sunday, the aforementioned front will retreat into the TX Panhandle ahead of southerly winds, yet a segment of this weak front now looks to loiter over the Childress area under light and moist ESE flow. Even though we still have pesky subsidence under a zonal H7 ridge axis all day Sunday, the front and improved moisture look okay for NBM`s low PoPs late in the afternoon in the far southeast TX Panhandle. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Unsettled weather is a common theme in the extended as the upper high initially over the Desert Southwest makes a move to South Texas and remains in this region for much of the week. This transition presents us with almost daily impulses in moist WNW flow and more importantly a strong cold front by Monday evening - perhaps earlier in the day across our northern zones. This front may be accelerated by outflows from storms north of I40 Sunday night that linger into Monday morning, but for now we`re sticking with the NBM`s slower FROPA of Monday evening until confidence improves regarding an earlier passage. Our Panhandle counties hold the best chance for storms Sunday night and Monday nearest the front before these chances expand south Monday night with the front and an uptick in PWATs from 1.4" to 1.8" - highest off the Caprock. During this time, an extension of mid/upper ridging lingering over our SW counties may effectively void PoPs in these areas through Tuesday compared to our NE counties where a ribbon of MCVs and other impulses in WNW flow are more likely to sustain multiple bouts of storms. Some heavy rain is not out of the question from the southern Panhandle into the Rolling Plains Monday night and Tuesday provided training of storms evolves. With the front stalling south of I10 on Tuesday, we`ll likely be stuck in a healthy layer of post-frontal stratus and/or thicker mid-level clouds, so high temps still have some room to go lower than the latest NBM indicates. GFS and ECX ensemble means continue to come in below the NBM which will be revisited in later forecasts. PoP-wise, the daytime hours on Tuesday may be mostly quiet as cool/moist easterlies favor storm formation in the higher terrain of NM before this activity rolls ESE overnight and benefits from a modest LLJ. This setup should present us with our best chance for rain over most/all of the area and is covered well by the NBM. Cool surface ridging eases its grip on Wednesday allowing easterlies to veer southerly all the while WNW winds aloft become more anticyclonic. This points to lower rain chances as stronger WAA shoves to our north and focuses the best rain chances there through Thursday. Guidance is in fair agreement in the upper ridge flattening by Friday which spurs an uptick in our PoPs just in time for Friday night football. The 00Z ECMWF is the most bullish in this scenario as it drives another healthy cold front through the region whereas the GFS is more conservative in its subtle cooling trend by next weekend. Both solutions agree in a broader threat for storms beginning Friday and continuing through Saturday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 610 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...07