690
FXUS64 KLUB 161119
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
619 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1038 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

 - Increased storm chances Thursday and Friday. The risk for
   severe storms remains low.

 - "Cool" and humid conditions will continue through Friday.

 - Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will be the primary
   hazards with precipitation.

 - Hotter and drier weather is expected next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 1038 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

The upper low currently over the Big Country has already begun to
retrograde and will continue to do so through the rest of the early
morning hours. An increase in convection is expected as the upper
low retrograde with showers and thunderstorms beginning to move into
our southeastern zones by early to mid morning. This is already
evident on radar imagery. The upper low should be centered mostly
over the Permian Basin by sunrise and is expected to remain there
through the rest of Thursday with the FA being on the northern edge
of the upper low. While the proximity of the upper low will favor
storm development over the FA, overall lift will only exist up to a
short distance from the low and will keep most precip chances across
the southern half of the FA. As has been the case over the past
several days, the overall threat for severe storms will be low, but
a few gusts to 60 mph from stronger storms will be possible. As
sounding profiles are saturated, heavy rainfall will be possible as
will urban street flooding. The isolated to scattered nature of
storms and a decent forward speed will keep the flooding threat
localized and brief. Storm chances begin to dwindle by Friday
afternoon as the upper low continues retrograding towards the Desert
Southwest and brings deep layer moisture with it. High temps will
remain on the cool side and remain in the 80s this afternoon and
Friday and will be aided by a combination of cloud cover, rainfall,
and east to southeast surface flow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1038 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Our luck with cooler weather will run out late weekend and early
next week. The upper high that has been baking much of the Rockies
and Northern Plains will drop southward and settle over the South
Plains region by late Monday/Tuesday. This will bring highs back
into the upper 90s/low 100s by mid week and likely last through at
least the end of the week. The overhead high will also keep most
precip chances at bay. The best chances for rainfall next week will
be in the form of shallow diurnal convection aided mostly by surface
moisture and weak boundaries.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Similar to yesterday morning, MVFR and IFR stratus with some fog
should make a run for LBB by 8 AM or so before turning over to
VFR later this morning. Skycams from Tahoka to Post confirm
ceilings of several hundred feet with reduced vis drifting north.
PVW and CDS should avoid this threat outright. Small chances exist
for SHRA or brief TS near the terminals through tonight, but
spotty and brief duration precludes any specific TAF mention.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...93