210
FXUS64 KLUB 241717
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1217 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

 - Heat indices on Friday of 105-109 off the Caprock where a Heat
   Advisory continues.

 - Some strong to severe thunderstorm Friday afternoon and evening
   for the far southwest Texas Panhandle and nearby South Plains.

 - Drier and hotter next week with Heat Advisories likely off the
   Caprock.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

An upper level ridge centered over southwestern New
Mexico/southeastern Arizona will make a slight move to the north
through this afternoon resulting in a slim decrease in heights aloft
over West Texas. Mid level moisture underneath the ridge combined
with a surface trough will lead to scattered convection later this
afternoon. With the region in close proximity to the upper ridge,
large scale ascent will be absent with convection relying on surface
heating and low level convergence within the surface trough. This
surface trough will set up roughly from the central Texas Panhandle
southeastward into southeastern New Mexico. Although the best low
level theta-e air will be displaced over the Rolling Plains, well
away from the surface trough, strong heating will result in an
unstable atmosphere. Deep boundary layer mixing will occur with
progged instability values up to 1000 J/kg within the surface trough
axis. Very weak flow will keep storms from becoming organized or
moving all that much as well. Therefore, the main threat from these
storms will be strong downburst winds and locally heavy rainfall.
Similar to this morning, some showers could persist into the early
morning hours on Saturday.

As the center of the ridge moves farther northward on Saturday
chances for convection will decrease. However, lingering mid level
moisture overhead will bring slight chances of convection. Any
convection would favor the southern Texas Panhandle underneath the
moisture plume. A lack of a surface trough on Saturday afternoon
will likely lead to less coverage in storms as well. Temperatures
will actually undergo a slight decrease for Saturday with the center
of the ridge moving farther from the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

The weather pattern will undergo little change through the end of
July. The center of the upper ridge will rotate around the Raton
Mesa area taking on weakening and strengthening characteristics
throughout the week. The end effect will be very hot temperatures
and little to no chances of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

VFR conditions expected for much of the TAF period. Breezy winds
will vary from the SW to SE the rest of this evening through early
Saturday morning before weakening Saturday afternoon. Scattered
thunderstorms will be possible this evening at KPVW. There is a
possibility storms could reach KLBB, however the chance for that is
low at the moment. Can expect gusty winds and heavy rainfall with
these storms. Storm chances will diminish after sunset. Another
round of storms will be possible early Saturday morning around KCDS.
These storms will be more isolated and not as strong, however could
still see some breezy to gusty winds.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-031-032-
037-038-042>044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...10