597
FXUS64 KLUB 120845
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
345 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 331 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

 - A potent storm system is expected to bring a High Wind event
   and critical to extremely critical fire danger to the entire
   forecast area on Friday.

 - Breezy to windy conditions and very warm temperatures are
   forecast across the South Plains region today, with critical
   fire danger expected across most of the region.

 - Dry and warm weather will result in the continuation of
   elevated to critical fire weather conditions next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Water vapor channel imagery at 08z depicts a sharp upper level
shortwave trough over southern AZ ahead of deeper and more amplified
upper troughing off the CA coast. The wave over AZ early this morning
will be today`s feature of interest, and will bring breezy to windy
conditions to our area as it ejects eastward over the southern
plains states by this afternoon. At the surface, broad troughing
is already in place this morning over the TX Panhandle into
western OK, and will deepen further and slide southeastward
through the course of the day, eventually exiting into North TX
later this evening. The resulting tightening of the surface
pressure gradient will result in a gradual strengthening of
westerly surface flow through the morning hours, with winds
expected to peak midday through afternoon before weakening this
evening. Forecast soundings depict impressive diurnal mixing
heights near or in excess of 10k ft AGL across most of the
forecast area, easily tapping into a 30-40 kt 850mb wind max. The
track of the surface low just to our north results in some
uncertainty in where exactly the corridor of strongest winds sets
up this afternoon, with a quick dropoff in wind speeds possible
from south to north. Nevertheless, confidence in a corridor of
sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph over southern portions of the
South Plains and Rolling Plains is high enough to issue a Wind
Advisory for this area from 11 AM until 7 PM today. Given the
strong downslope surface flow and deep mixing, today is also
expected to be another unseasonably warm day with highs forecast
to reach into the mid 70s to low 80s area-wide. This combined with
a very dry airmass and the strong winds will result in areas of
critical fire weather conditions; see the fire weather section
below for details. Otherwise, west winds of 10 to 15 mph will
continue through the overnight hours, resulting in mild lows
tonight mainly in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

The long term forecast remains on track this morning, with the high
potential of a High Wind event and extremely critical fire weather
conditions towards the end of the work week. By the start of the
forecast period, the FA will find itself between systems as the
upper level trough associated with Wednesday`s winds begins to
depart to the east allowing for shortwave ridging to move overhead
of the FA. This will allow "quieter" weather compared to the
previous day to occur on Thursday. Despite this, breezy
conditions are still expected as a surface low in the lee of the
Rockies influences breezy southwest winds around 15 to 25 mph as
it begins to deepen and move into the southern plains region
through the afternoon. These breezy conditions in combination with
the dry conditions and warmer daytime highs in the 70s and 80s
will allow for yet another day of at least elevated to near
critical fire weather concerns, especially across our two most
western column of counties where higher wind speeds are expected.

As we gear up into Friday, confidence continues to increase in the
potential of a High Wind Event with NBM probabilities of meeting
High Wind Warning criteria depicting a 75% probability of
exceedance on the Caprock and about a 60% probability of exceedance
for areas off the Caprock. The upper level trough will begin to
move in from the Desert Southwest by late Thursday night setting
up over the the FA by Friday afternoon with the center of the
+115kt jet streak centered over the Caprock. Additionally at the
surface, the surface low to our north is expected to deepen as it
begins to push through the southern plains with the H7 and H8 wind
maxima also centered over a majority of the FA during this time
period, thus increasing the potential for strong wind speeds
across the region. Given this and the nature of strong inverted-v
forecast soundings and MSLP changes around 4 to 5 mb every 3
hours, we have pretty high confidence of strong westerly winds
around 35 to 45 mph, gusting up to 70 mph by Friday mid morning
through the afternoon. Therefore, a High Wind Watch is in effect
from 9 AM CDT Friday through 7 PM CDT Friday evening. Additionally,
these higher wind speeds in combination with the critically dry
conditions (with ERC values generally above the 50th percentile
for all of the area) will lead to widespread extremely critical
fire weather conditions Friday afternoon, despite the cooler
temperatures associated with the Pacific Front Friday morning.
Given the high confidence with this as well, a Fire Weather Watch
is in effect for all of the FA from 9 AM CDT Friday through 8 PM
CDT Friday.

An additional, less amplified, shortwave trough will track through
the northern portions of the Texas Panhandle, which may help keep
wind speeds slightly elevated across portions of our southern rows
of counties on Saturday. Thankfully, minimum RH values are expected
to recover slightly back above the 15th percentile Saturday which
with the help of the cooler daytime highs and lingering cloud cover
should limit fire weather concerns. There is a slight chance areas
across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle could see a few showers
Friday morning. However, if a shower forms it is expected to be high
based in nature given the dry sub-cloud layer noted on forecast
sounding which will likely prevent any precipitation from reaching
the ground. Thereafter, the warm and dry conditions are expected to
continue into next week as upper level ridging begins to build back
over the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

LLWS and light southwesterly surface flow will continue through
the rest of the overnight. Winds will gradually increase and turn
more westerly after sunrise, with strong west winds continuing at
all sites from mid-morning through late afternoon. Confidence is
high that gusts will reach or exceed 30 kt at LBB and PVW this
afternoon, with lesser chances at CDS. Some light visibility
restrictions from BLDU are also possible beginning during the late
morning hours. Otherwise, VFR is expected to prevail throughout
this TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

West winds will increase through the rest of this morning, becoming
breezy to windy during the afternoon hours. The strongest winds
today are expected over southern portions of the South Plains and
Rolling Plains with sustained speeds of 25 to 35 mph. Winds will
be weaker further north, but are still expected to be breezy with
sustained speeds of 15 to 30 mph. Minimum RH values of 8 to 12
percent are expected this afternoon which combined with the
strengthening winds will result in critical fire weather
conditions across most of the forecast area today. With forecast
RFTI values of 4 to 7, a Red Flag Warning is therefore in effect
from noon until 8 PM today for all areas except for the far
southeastern Texas Panhandle. Here, fuel moisture is higher given
recent precipitation, resulting in lower ERC values. Given this
and the expected weaker winds over the SE TX Panhandle resulting
in RFTI values of 2 to 3, have issued a Rangeland Fire Danger
Statement for the SE TX Panhandle.

A slight reduction in fire danger is expected Thursday, with
elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions expected given
southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph. Confidence is still very high in
widespread critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions
area-wide on Friday as a potent weather system brings sustained west
winds of 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 70 mph. A Fire Weather Watch
has been issued for the entire area from Friday morning through
Friday evening.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ021>024-027>044.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
for TXZ021>044.

High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
TXZ021>044.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for TXZ033>036-039>044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...30