831
FXUS64 KLUB 292305
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
605 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 605 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

  - Slight chance for showers and thunderstorms across the far
    southwestern Texas Panhandle this evening.

 - Scattered thunderstorm chances will return on Wednesday
   afternoon and evening especially northwest of a Denver City to
   Childress line. A few of these could bring strong downburst
   winds and small hail.

 - Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms through the
   end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

The stagnant pattern for West Texas will persist through Wednesday
with the TUTT train continuing well to our south and a developing
blocking ridge along the spine of the Rockies.  Accordingly, a split
flow regime persists across the west with the subtropical jet
hoarding most of the energy along a nearly stationary jet max off
the coast of southern California.  Turning to the mid levels, the
subtropical high is centered over north Texas and with the
interaction of the developing ridge, the high, and the weakness in
between known as the monsoon, a deformation region extends from
Sonora into eastern Colorado and northeast into the Great Lakes.

Precipitation is largely expected to remain west of the CWA this
afternoon and evening though perhaps a storm or two could affect the
western column of counties.  Better precipitation chances look to
hold off until Wednesday afternoon as the CAMs paint a picture of a
elongated region of scattered storms primarily across the
northwestern half to two-thirds of our area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

We have a good shot for some shower and thunderstorms over portions
of the Caprock Wednesday afternoon and evening. The persistent upper
high continues to push westward and should be mostly west of our
region by the weekend. An upper shortwave will track over eastern
New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle by the latter half of Wednesday.
This shortwave will kick a cold front through New Mexico resulting
in scattered shower and thunderstorms over eastern portions. These
storms are expected to track into the far southern Texas Panhandle
and portions of the South Plains Wednesday evening. The cold front
should push through the region Thursday, however timing of the FROPA
is still uncertain as it will depend on if outflows from storms
Wednesday evening give the front an extra push.

A wide range of highs across the region is expected Thursday,
depending on the timing of the front. Currently, areas in the
northwest will only reach lower 80s with temperatures increasing as
you move southeast with areas across the southern Rolling Plains
reaching triple digits. Cooler than seasonal normal temperatures
continue Friday and Saturday with highs in the upper 80s to lower
90s. These cooler temperatures will most likely keep the area
capped. However, upper level flow will shift to the northwest with
the upper high sitting over the Desert Southwest, prompting shower
and thunderstorm development over eastern portions of New Mexico and
tracking into our region. This same setup is also likely Saturday.

To start off next week, the upper ridging will build back over our
region. Subsidence associated with the upper ridge will keep
conditions dry and height increases will warm temperatures back to
seasonal normal with highs in the upper 90s and lower 100s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...51