Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
577 FXUS64 KLUB 041112 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 612 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 611 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 - Dry and unseasonably warm weather will continue through this weekend. - Slightly cooler weather and a chance of rain enters the forecast during the early to middle part of this coming week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 The stagnant upper level ridge which has been in place over our region for the past several days has finally begun to deamplify early this morning as a potent shortwave mid/upper level trough over the Great Basin steadily tracks eastward. Meanwhile, a broad and more disorganized area of upper troughing persists over the Gulf Coast. The net result will be a modest strengthening of southwest flow aloft over our area through the course of today as the ridge collapses. Although the largest height falls will be well to our north and west, layer thicknesses and 850mb temperatures will both decrease enough to result in a cool down of a few degrees today relative to the past couple of days with highs mainly in the mid to upper 80s across the region this afternoon. Dry conditions will continue today and tonight, but deepening lee surface troughing east of the Rockies associated with the strong wave aloft crossing the mountains will result in a breezier day across West Texas with sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph especially over the Caprock. Expect these winds to only weaken slightly tonight, resulting in mild overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 Minimal change to the extended forecast, which features minor cooling (towards normal) through the middle of the coming week, along with a return of rain/storm chances for the region from late Monday through Wednesday. The trough moving through the Intermountain West today will make quick headway across the northern High Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday morning before lifting into south-central Canada by Sunday evening. Breezy southerly winds will continue over the southern High Plains on Sunday as southwesterly flow aloft persists upstream of the departing shortwave and downstream of a broad positively tilted trough reloading over the western CONUS. Even so, cooler Canadian air will advance southward through the northern and central High Plains, behind the lead wave, on Sunday. It still appears the frontal zone will initially stall to the north of the CWA late Sunday, keeping any cooling and better rain chances to our north with it. That said, there are weak signals that an attendant surface trough trailing southwestward from the front could trigger isolated high-based convection as far south as the southwest Texas Panhandle Sunday evening. Forecast sounding aren`t very impressive, with minimal instability and a deep, dry subcloud layer, tending to favor virga or a few sprinkles, but very low chances of measurable rain. Additional jet energy passing by well to the north of the region, along with convection along/near the front, is expected to give the frontal zone a nudge southward on Monday. This could bring the front near or into our northwestern/northern zones by Monday afternoon, complete with minor cooling and increasing rain chances. Thereafter, there is decent agreement the frontal zone will hang out in the region through the middle of the week before washing out as upper ridging begins to rebuild over the region. Although not particularly supportive aloft through the middle of the week, an increase in mid- upper level moisture will help to keep at least a chance of rain, perhaps even a few rumbles of thunder, in the forecast. The best chances will favor the northern zones Monday afternoon and night before expanding to much of the area Tuesday and Tuesday night. The current NBM ends mentionable PoPs from east-to-west on Wednesday, as drier air advects in from the east and mid-upper ridging starts to reassert itself. However, if the upper ridge is slower to build and the mid-level moisture slower to thin, as the 00Z GFS suggests, rain chances could linger into Thursday. Regardless, a warming and drying trend is favored toward the end of the work week as ridging aloft becomes increasingly dominate again. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 611 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 VFR conditions to continue through the TAF period. South winds will become gusty late morning through afternoon. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...07