855
FXUS64 KLUB 091732
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1232 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1219 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

 - Slight chance of late evening thunderstorms tonight into early
   Wednesday morning.

 - Very warm temperatures Wednesday and Thursday with isolated
   afternoon storms.

 - Slightly cooler for the weekend with continued chances of
   afternoon thunderstorms.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

More robust high based convection is expected this afternoon but
initiating in New Mexico and then drifting into the area this
evening. A weak short wave trough moving across central New Mexico
into northern New Mexico will help initiate these storms early in
the afternoon. This will be associated with an upper level jet
streak on the order of 70-80kt moving from eastern New Mexico into
the Texas Panhandle. This area of wind divergence overhead combined
with the very hot surface temperatures will initiate thunderstorm
activity over the higher terrain of New Mexico. Any storms able to
advect into the southwestern Texas Panhandle this evening will
continue to have a sufficient amount of instability to maintain this
thunderstorm activity. Parcels that are able to reach the LFC would
have approximately 1500-2000 J/kg of available instability to work
with. Although there will be a threat of hail from these storms the
primary threat will be strong to severe wind gusts. Winds through
the mid-troposphere are not expected to be that strong through the
evening. We would have to reach over 400mb or so to see some
stronger winds. However, this may be enough to see some storm
organization to be able to produce the strong wind gusts.

For Wednesday, a sprawling ridge will cover the southeastern US into
Texas. Continued troughing over the Intermountain West into the
Northern Plains will allow for surface cyclogenesis in lee of the
Rockies during the afternoon. A dryline will mix eastward which will
extend from the south-central Texas Panhandle into the southwestern
South Plains. Large scale ascent will be lacking on Wednesday
afternoon but the near surface convergence would be enough for
convective initiation sometime mid to late afternoon. Surface dew
points are expected to mix out more tomorrow under warmer
temperatures. Cloud bases will be very high with storms primarily
producing strong to severe wind gusts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Daily chances of convection will continue for the rest of the week
and through the weekend with an upper level ridge sitting to our
southeast. Very little organization can be expected from any
convection during this time due to the proximity of the upper level
ridge. Atmospheric flow through the column will continue to be weak
with storms primarily being capable of producing strong to severe
wind gusts each afternoon. Models are indicating a weak stalled out
from Thursday into Friday which may bring higher thunderstorm
chances during this time period in vicinity of the front. Slightly
cooler temperatures can be expected this weekend following the weak
cold front and relatively high surface dew points remaining in the
60s during the daytime. Otherwise, there does not look to be much of
a break to this pattern through at least early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

MVFR conditions continue to improve back towards
VFR early this afternoon. Thereafter, VFR will continue through the
rest of the day before MVFR threatens both KLBB and KPVW just before
daybreak Wednesday. Confidence in coverage of low ceilings is
uncertain, therefore have opted for no TAF mention at this time.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...12