Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
584 FXUS64 KLUB 111110 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 610 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 603 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 - Scattered shower and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and should continue into the overnight hours. - Additional chances for storms continue Tuesday and Wednesday. - Warmer temperatures and dryer conditions expected the latter half of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Main focus for the short term forecast is the storm chances this afternoon and evening with models indicating a similar set up as yesterday`s storms. A mid/upper level trough will set up over the Central Plains with an upper ridge on either side. Large scale ascent is expected over the region today as the southern edge of the trough sits over the Texas Panhandle. At the surface, a cold front that was supposed to track through the region today was washed out by the shower and thunderstorms from late yesterday. Surface winds will shift to the southeast in response to a lee side low developing over New Mexico. Storms from yesterday stabilized the atmosphere, however as the mostly cloudy skies clear this afternoon, the atmosphere is expected to destabilize again. With large scale ascent, moist surface upslope winds and an unstable atmosphere, scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over eastern portions of New Mexico and track into our region late tomorrow afternoon and evening. The main hazards expected with these storms are severe wind gusts and localized heavy rainfall with PWATs up to 1.6 inches and forecast soundings showing tall and skinny CAPE profiles. Localized flooding cannot be ruled out, however fast moving storms are expected with the jet streak overhead. Storms are expected to continue through the overnight hours into Tuesday with persistent large scale ascent with the upper trough remaining stagnant. We will finally get a break from the triple digit temperatures today as cloudy skies and storm chances this afternoon will keep highs in the 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Not much change to the long term forecast. A blocking pattern that set up on Monday will persist through the middle of the week with an upper ridge over southwestern portions of CONUS, a mid/upper level trough over the Central Plains, and a secondary ridge over the Gulf and Florida. Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected to continue overnight Monday into Tuesday and possibly Wednesday afternoon and evening as large scale ascent persists with the southern edge of the mid/upper trough overhead. Timing and coverage of storms are uncertain at the moment as it will depend on boundaries from the previous days storms and whether the atmosphere can destabilize. A monsoonal moisture plume will remain over most of the region Tuesday resulting in chances for some localized heavy rainfall with PWATs up to 1.4 inches. Highs on Tuesday will be well below seasonal normal with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s due to the widespread shower chances and mostly cloudy skies for majority of the day. Current model runs indicate drier conditions on Wednesday, however any storm development, similar to Tuesday will be dependent on lingering boundaries and if the atmosphere is able to destabilize, therefore NBM slight chance was kept. This upper level pattern will finally break up Thursday as the trough is absorbed in northern flow and ridging sets up over the CWA. Resulting height rises will slightly warm temperatures into the 90s region wide and subsidence will keep precipitation chances near zero through the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 603 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Winds will generally be light and variable this morning with several thunderstorm outflow boundaries and a cold front lingering around the region. Winds are expected to be prevailing out of the southeast by this afternoon at all TAF sites. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are again expected late this afternoon into the evening hours approaching the terminals from the west. The KLBB and KPVW terminals stand the best chance at seeing storms. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...01