853
FXUS64 KLUB 301655
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1155 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1155 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

 - Thunderstorm chances return to the area Friday evening through
   the overnight hours.

 - Slightly cooler and drier for the weekend (mid to upper 90s)
   warming back near the century mark once again next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

The dome of high pressure that has been present for weeks continues
to affect the southern CONUS.  We`ll see a bit of a westward shift
of the center over the next couple of days yielding a tendency
toward northwest flow for the area later on Friday.  Given the
configuration of the flow regime, it would appear that most of the
precipitation opportunity will remain north of us in the central to
northern Panhandle, but a number of the CAMs are hinting at some
overnight shower activity (early Friday morning) and perhaps a bit
of thunder as is quite often seen during late July / Aug.  This type
of activity is usually underdone by the classical models.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

The aforementioned northwest flow aloft regime will likely be most
favorable for our area Friday evening and as the high shifts further
west into the CA/NV/AZ/UT area on Saturday, we should see the flow
become more northerly (and subsequently less favorable for precip).
To our northeast during this time, a pronounced trough will drop out
of the northern plains into the Ohio Valley.  Into the start of next
week, as troughing remains across the eastern CONUS, the western
high should start to ease back this way although under a flatter
morphology as systems become more notably strong along the US/CAN
border.

Storm chances look much better Friday evening through the overnight
hours as northwest flow combines with a southward moving frontal
boundary.  That said, there are concerns in terms of CAPE as rather
warm temps are indicated at and above H5.  Forecast soundings,
despite the hot surface temps and near-dry-adiabatic lapse rates in
the lower half, show stark limited availability for meaningful deep
convection. There may be 3-4 thousand feet of upward energy before
the warmer environmental temperatures aloft taper updrafts. Guidance
generally depicts MUCAPE under 800 J/kg though shear of 20-30 knots
will certainly aid the situation if the mid-level temperatures are
cooler than forecast.  Some lingering storms remain possible into
Saturday.  The HRRR is fairly bullish on coverage and intensity, but
where all that moisture will come from (and energy) remains
uncertain.

Behind the front, cooler theta-e air (not necessarily dry-bulb
cooler) will make its way into the CWFA from the northeast.  Not to
worry though, with the high beginning to move back this way Sunday -
next Thursday, the warm temperatures aren`t going anywhere. However,
Sunday and Monday may feel a bit nicer in the evening with dewpoints
perhaps dropping into the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Continued VFR with favorable winds. Remote chance for some SHRA
or TS early Friday morning near any of the terminals.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-031-032-
037-038-042>044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...93