777
FXUS64 KLUB 091730
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1230 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1227 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

- Warmer and drier conditions today compared to yesterday.

- Possible elevated fire weather concerns this weekend due to
  warmer temperatures and breezy southerly winds.

- Precipitation chances return Sunday and continue through early
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Current surface observations indicate patchy fog has formed over the
far southeastern Texas Panhandle with KCDS showing visibility as low
as 2 miles. Patchy fog will be possible over the far southern and
southeastern Texas Panhandle as well as northern portions of the
South Plains and Rolling Plains through the morning hours.
Hopefully you enjoyed the cooler and cloudy conditions the past
couple of days as we are expected to warm up and dry out. For the
upper levels, upper ridging has set up over majority of Texas and
will remain stagnant over the region through today. Slight height
and thickness increases will increase temperatures today. Some
areas, especially off the Caprock, will have highs a few degrees
above seasonal normal. High temperatures over western portions of
the FA will be in the lower 80s while highs will be in the lower
90s for eastern portions of the region. Light southerly surface
winds will prevail through today and tonight as a lee surface
trough sits over eastern CO and western KS. Tonight will be quiet
and cool with lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

The warm and dry trend that began Thursday will continue through the
weekend. Models indicate the upper ridging will continue to remain
over the region through Sunday. Heights and thicknesses will
continue to gradually increase through the weekend effectively
increasing temperatures with highs reaching up to mid 90s by Sunday.
A tightening lee surface trough over the CO/KS state line will
increase southerly surface flow over the weekend. Wind speeds up to
20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph will be possible. Warmer temperatures
and strong southerly winds will possibly bring elevated fire weather
conditions Saturday and Sunday. The upper pattern is expected to
change by the beginning of next week. An upper trough will swing
over the Pacific NW on Saturday. By Sunday, the same upper trough
will push the ridging to the southeast as it treks over the
Intermountain West effectively shifting to southwesterly flow aloft
ushering in subtropical moisture to the mid to upper levels.
Southwesterly flow will prevail through much of next week as the
ridging is expected to remain stagnant to the southeast of our
region and a secondary upper trough translates over the western
CONUS. Precipitation chances return Sunday afternoon with the
increase of upper level moisture, especially with a tropical system
possibly getting absorbed into the southwesterly flow aloft.
Precipitation chances continue through Monday and into Tuesday
morning as models indicate a cold front tracking south into the
region. This will result in the possibility of a wide range of highs
in the lower 70s to lower 90s on Monday. However, the timing and how
far south the front treks is uncertain at the moment, therefore left
NBM temperatures and PoPs as is at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

VFR conditions are expected across the terminals the next 24
hours, with light winds through the forecast period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...24