925
FXUS64 KLUB 211951
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
151 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Much warmer weather this weekend through next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 149 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

A short wave trough currently located over the Great Basin will
approach the area tomorrow afternoon. However, it will primarily
bring mid and high level clouds than measurable precipitation due to
the lack of low level moisture in the atmosphere. This shortwave
will take a track to the south of the area across southern New
Mexico and Far West Texas. Therefore, large scale ascent will be
concentrated across Far West Texas and the Permian Basin. Some
sprinkles will be possible out of this activity but confidence is
low in anything reaching the surface. Otherwise, the warming trend
will continue on Saturday with temperatures reaching into the 50s.
The approaching short wave trough will induce surface cyclogenesis
in northeastern New Mexico/southeastern Colorado bringing
downsloping southwesterly winds. The southern South Plains and
southern Rolling Plains may be a few degrees cooler with the
expected mid and high level cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 149 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Temperatures will continue to warm Sunday and remain above average
well into next week. Monday`s winds were again increased above NBM
given the expected downsloping due westerlies. As a result, this
will be the warmest day of the forecast period, with highs
approaching 80 in some locations. Winds will shift out of the NE at
some point on Wednesday as a cold front moves across the region.
Luckily this will not bring another Arctic airmass as seen this week
and temperatures will only fall into the 60s by Thursday. These will
rebound late week and winds look to increase out of the south.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1104 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

VFR is expected through the TAF period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...01