182
FXUS64 KLUB 201107
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
607 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Following some lingering morning precipitation, cooler and
   drier weather will return to much of the area today, with dry
   conditions continuing into Monday.

 - Thunderstorms are expected across a majority of the region
   Tuesday through Tuesday night, with some severe storms
   possible.

 - An active weather pattern will bring daily thunderstorm chances
   and possible severe weather to the region through the end of
   the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Water vapor imagery currently shows the center of the upper level
low spiraling over eastern NM, where it is expected to track into
the TX Panhandle region around daybreak, before ejecting to the
northeast this afternoon. Continued upscale lift provided by the
upper level trough will result in lingering showers and
thunderstorms through the early morning hours as moisture wraps
around the backside of the low into portions of the far southern
Texas Panhandle. Thereafter, precipitation will begin to diminish as
the trough ejects out of the region with skies clearing from
southwest to northeast. Meanwhile, the surface low to our southeast
is expected to follow a similar pattern tracking northerly into the
Southern Plains through the morning, centering itself over
southeastern Kansas by the afternoon. As the surface low begins its
track, we will see a brief window of breezy wind speeds as northerly
winds begin to back out of the northwest and then out of the west
through the late afternoon and early evening time period. Wind
speeds will be on the order of 10 to 20 mph, with the strongest wind
speeds fixated closer to the surface low along our most eastern
column of counties. Although slightly warmer compared to
yesterday`s temperatures, highs will remain on the cooler side in
the mid 60s to lower 70s area-wide as CAA from the north into the
FA continues. Surface winds will continue to back throughout the
evening out of the southwest, where they will remain light through
the overnight period. These southwest winds will allow overnight
lows to be slightly warmer compared to previous, despite clear
skies, in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Quiet and dry weather is expected on Monday as benign zonal flow
persists aloft. Winds will gradually turn southerly and increase as
a surface ridge initially over OK shifts eastward, which together
with a modest increase in layer thicknesses will boost high
temperatures near or just above 80 degrees area-wide. Tuesday and
beyond, the synoptic pattern will become more active with models
still in very good agreement depicting a prolonged period of
southwesterly flow aloft over our region. Low level moisture is
progged to rapidly advance northward into West Texas beginning
early Tuesday, with surface dewpoints likely to reach at least the
low 50s during the afternoon. This will result in a diffuse
dryline taking shape near the TX/NM state line, which will likely
serve as a focus for convective development Tuesday afternoon and
evening supported by broad lift from a modest shortwave
disturbance within the southwest flow aloft. Model soundings point
to only a very weak capping inversion present on Tuesday, and
with convective temperatures expected to be easily reached, at
least scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon
and evening on Tuesday. SBCAPE values will likely exceed 2000 J/kg
over most of the region on Tuesday, but shear is still progged to
be relatively modest as flow aloft remains fairly weak. Still,
bulk shear magnitudes near or just above 30 kt should allow for
at least some updraft organization with severe storms possible
Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night essentially anywhere
across our forecast area as initial convection near the TX/NM
state line moves eastward during the evening. Of note, recent CSU-
MLP predictive guidance highlights a concentrated potential for
large hail over the South Plains region during this timeframe.

Upper level southwesterly flow is then progged to strengthen
slightly beginning on Wednesday as the broader cyclonic flow aloft
gradually deepens over the west coast. Deterministic models are
still in good agreement that another modest shortwave will pass
overhead on Wednesday, with yet another and potentially deeper
shortwave on Thursday as well. Given the continuation of moist
southerly surface flow and the positioning of a dryline over our
area during this period, this pattern points to fairly high chances
for additional thunderstorm development each afternoon through the
late evening hours both Wednesday and Thursday. Given the synoptic
setup, likely to categorical PoPs still look perfectly acceptable
during this timeframe, and although it is too early for specifics,
the threat for severe weather will continue through the entire
week. Friday into the weekend, model consensus has begun to signal
a cold front passing southward through our region which in
combination with continued unsettled southwesterly flow aloft
results in rain chances persisting into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Low CIGs continue to impact all three terminals this morning, with
KLBB on the edge of the stratus deck bouncing between VFR to IFR
conditions at times. Elsewhere, MVFR to IFR CIGs are expected to
continue through at least mid-morning before we see the stratus
deck begin to erode, clearing at KPVW first and then KCDS just
before the afternoon. A few lingering showers will impact KCDS
this morning, possibly KPVW, but will quickly diminish by mid-
morning. Thereafter, VFR conditions will prevail through the
period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...12