327
FXUS64 KLUB 050517
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1217 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

 - Elevated fire weather possible across the extreme southwestern
   Texas Panhandle Sunday and Monday afternoon.

 - Chance of showers Tuesday afternoon and evening favoring the
   southwestern portions of the area.

 - Increasing chances of thunderstorms late this week into the
   weekend with the potential for a few to be severe.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Surface high pressure is settling in over Kansas/Oklahoma this
evening as cooler air filters in behind the front that passed
through this morning. Easterly upslope winds driven by this high
pressure will keep temperatures just below seasonal averages
overnight and Sunday. As an upper-level trough continues to push
into the midwest and northeastern US, an upper-level ridge will
build overhead moving into Sunday. Weak surface lee cyclogenesis
will tighten the pressure gradient between the high pressure to the
east and the Rockies, leading to breezy southeasterly winds Sunday.
Elevated fire risk is possible across the extreme southwestern Texas
Panhandle where 15-20 kt winds are co-located with RH as low as 10-
15%.

Tomerlin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

A weak shortwave trough is expected to push through Northern Mexico
into southern Texas Sunday evening, bringing a subtropical jet max,
and associated isentropic lift, primarily south of the area. While a
stray shower or two is possible, rain chances are expected to stay
predominantly south of the forecast area.

Much of the work week is expected to be breezy with near seasonal
temperatures as lee troughing occurs due to passing shortwave
troughs embedded in broad west southwesterly flow. Elevated fire
risk is possible Monday across the extreme southwestern Texas
Panhandle with gusty winds and RH as low as 15%.

A shortwave trough on Tuesday will pass farther north in New Mexico
compared to the one Sunday night, bringing slightly higher rain
chances to the region. Cooler surface temperatures with the presence
of low clouds, along with weak mid level lapse rates, will result in
very little instability Tuesday. Therefore, precipitation will
mainly be in the form of light stratiform rain, instead of
convective showers or thunderstorms, with little rainfall
accumulation expected.

The attention then shifts to Thursday and onwards as southwesterly
upper-level flow becomes established with an upper-level low off the
coast of California. While finer details are currently unclear in
the long term, the pattern would support multiple days of
thunderstorms with the potential for a few to be severe. This is
highlighted by ensemble and analog guidance for late week into next
weekend as the upper-level low works into the western Continental
United States.

Tomerlin

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

VFR and light winds will continue through this TAF period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....BT
AVIATION...30