128
FXUS64 KLUB 121157
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
557 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 553 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

 - A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the far southern
   Texas Panhandle, and the central and northern South Plains
   through 9 AM CST Wednesday.

 - Fog and freezing fog could be dense at times this morning.

 - Very cold Thursday morning before a warm and breezy Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 553 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Forecast has been updated to lower MaxTs for today. The latest
guidance has come in much less aggressive with the dry westerly
winds from southeastern New Mexico. Much of the area will likely
stay socked in with low stratus this afternoon keeping
temperatures from rising much.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 223 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Light winter weather event was ongoing early this morning. Minimal
changes have been made since the early morning update. The main
forcing for ascent will continue to be driven by moist isentropic
upglide through the mid-morning hours. Although the isentropic lift
will be present through a fairly deep layer from the 285K through
300K surfaces, the moisture will be much more shallow. At the
moment, moisture extends about 3kft deep and will continue to
decrease through mid-morning. This will lead to a decrease in
drizzle potential but the potential for fog will still exist.

By mid to late morning, a surface low will slide from southeastern
New Mexico into central Texas leading to dry westerly winds sweeping
into the South Plains. There will be a sharp gradient of dry
westerly winds and northerly winds behind an advancing cold front.
Areas south of the cold front will likely clear out of low stratus
with the remainder of the area under low overcast. This will lead to
a low confidence temperature forecast for the areas that are
expected to clear out. It will depend on how quickly the stratus
erodes and how far north this occurs. A good portion of the area
will remain under easterly flow shifting to northerly flow this
afternoon and with the clouds hanging in will lead to very cool
temperatures. Low level moisture will fill in again immediately
behind the cold front. Cyclonic flow will persist over the area this
afternoon as the cold front pushes through the area. A secondary
weak short wave will move overhead with a developing upper level jet
streak. Although we will see additional lift move overhead, much of
the atmosphere will be dry with the exception of the lowest 2-3kft.
Frontogenetical forcing may be able to squeeze out a sprinkle or
flurry but confidence is low. Low status will remain entrenched into
the area during the overnight hours but with much drier surface air
advecting into the region in the wake of the front. Despite the
clouds, strong cold air advection will drop temperatures into the
teens to upper single digits area wide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 223 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

On Thursday, West Texas will be split between weak upper level
ridging and a weak short wave undercutting the ridge across central
Texas. Surface ridging on Thursday will exert its influence on the
area with a 1036mb high moving across the Central and Southern
Plains. Upslope winds will keep temperatures well below seasonal
averages for Thursday afternoon. The next short wave trough will be
moving across the Intermountain west on Friday which will induce
surface cyclogenesis in lee of the Rockies. As a result, winds will
swing around to the southwest bringing a strong boost in
temperatures into the 60s. This short wave trough will pass overhead
early in the day on Saturday bringing another cold front during the
middle of the day with temperatures back closer to seasonal averages
or below for the weekend. Fairly strong lift will move overhead with
this short wave and may even be able to produce some light
precipitation during the day on Saturday in the southern Texas
Panhandle. The rapid changes in temperatures will continue early
next week as upper level troughing reloads in the western CONUS.
Downsloping winds on Monday will again boost temperatures above
seasonal averages followed by a strong cold front on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 553 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

IFR CIGS are expected to continue for much of the day for all TAF
sites with persistent cool and moist flow. Very light freezing
drizzle will also continue for all TAF sites for the next few
hours. A cold front will move through the area this afternoon
shifting easterly winds more to the north and will become breezy
for a period. There is low confidence on ceiling height after the
front comes through the area but the front looks to lift the CIGS
into MVFR for the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for
TXZ021>030-033>036.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...01