307
FXUS64 KLUB 190524
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1224 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

 - Slight chance of overnight showers and storms near the NM
   border.

 - Storm chances expand Saturday afternoon and evening.

 - Highs in the 90s this weekend, then cooler next week with daily
   chances for storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Subtle changes were afoot late this evening as an upper high near
DFW was slowly weakening and shifting east, allowing a bit more in
the way of southwesterly flow to reach our area. Specifically, an
axis of monsoon moisture from eastern NM to Chihuahua will make
honest strides eastward and overspread much of the Caprock by
Saturday morning. This moisture band may support some pinhead
showers and storms overnight across Parmer and Bailey counties, but
the real test for this moisture will come Saturday afternoon as peak
heating makes CIN negligible. A weak surface trough draped SW-NE on
the Caprock does not look sufficient to focus low-level convergence,
so we may need to wait on a nudger in the form of upstream storms or
remnant MCVs. Given the complex of storms well south of El Paso
currently, it appears any MCVs from this would affect the western
Trans-Pecos Saturday afternoon and fall well south of our area.
Another concern is drier southwest winds on the Caprock with
dewpoints potentially mixing out into the lower 50s. If this
happens, then MLCAPEs could be cut from 1500-2000 J/kg to 1000 or
less. Models have struggled with the potential nudger and lower
dewpoints, and tonight`s runs are even more stingy in the convective
department. PoPs will therefore be kept below the NBM with sub-50%
mention through Saturday night. Any storms that can develop would
have ample DCAPEs of 1500+ J/kg, so downbursts will be the main
threat followed by brief downpours, but even the heavy rain threat
should be tempered by swifter storm motions given 20-30 knots of
steering flow. Otherwise, highs in the 90s look good followed by
mild overnight lows beneath mid and high clouds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

The UA pattern continues to feature a suppressed high over E TX on
Sunday that later amplifies through late week. Locally, we`ll be on
the western periphery of this growing ridge, with a redeveloping
axis of monsoon moisture just to our west. Enough SW flow at times
should tug the broader moisture plume over our area which remains
supportive of daily rain chances, especially on the Caprock.
Temperatures will be cooler owing to increased clouds and easterly
winds.

Until then, Sunday and Monday are a bit of a question mark as
more models drag a cold front into our northern counties by Sunday
morning before stalling it across the CWA in the afternoon, then
shoving it south for Monday. NBM`s winds reflect this story for the
time being, yet the cooler high temps won`t be a factor until
Monday, well behind the boundary. Sunday`s PoPs were expanded west
to the NM border as the front could ignite storms in this drier
segment. Farther east, a shearing axis of monsoon moisture with a
weak shortwave trough favors higher PoPs in the afternoon. Monday`s
PoPs remain highest on the Caprock where moist upslope flow is
maximized.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Continuing VFR through this TAF period. Some TSRA may approach
KLBB and KPVW during the afternoon hours, but confidence in timing
and overall convective coverage is too low for a TAF mention at
this time.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...30