Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
915 FXUS64 KLUB 041107 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 607 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 607 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025 - Very warm today with near-record high temperatures expected this afternoon. - Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend with daily chances for rain continuing each day from Friday through early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025 Hot and dry conditions will be the theme of the short term period, as the FA remains under the influence of the subtropical ridge. Off to our northeast, the large-scale trough will continue to translate through the Great Lakes where it will attempt to swing a front, currently draped across the TX/OK Panhandles, where it is expected to wash out before reaching the northern portions of the FA thanks to a lee surface low setting up across southeastern CO. Despite height values remaining neutral, the return of southwest winds, increased thickness values, and mostly clear skies will influence daytime highs several degrees warmer than previous in the mid to upper 90s and lower triple digits. These unseasonably warm highs will bring the potential for record breaking heat, specifically at KLBB with a forecasted high of 100 degrees which is just shy of the current record of 102 degrees dating back to 2023. Subsidence associated with the subtropical ridge will likely limit any precipitation potential this afternoon across the area therefore have left NBM silent PoPs as is. Tonight, quiet conditions will continue with mild overnight lows in the mid 60s to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025 The potential for a cooler and wetter extended period remains on track this morning as we continue to closely monitor a tropical disturbance (Hurricane Lorena) moving into Baja California. Ensemble guidance continues to depict that remnants from this system will bring beneficial, potentially heavy, rainfall to the region as early as Friday afternoon as the system becomes absorbed into the main flow. The deterministic GFS continues to be the more aggressive model compared to other models like the ECMWF, bringing remnants of the cyclone inland while other models keep the system offshore. One thing to note is that although the GFS continues to bring the cyclone, the latest run has trended weaker with the inland cyclone compared to previous model runs. Regardless, the region will find itself beneath relatively southwest flow aloft, which will work to transport subtropical moisture into the area as early as Friday morning. Simultaneously, a series of shortwaves translating through the base of the upper level low over the Great Lakes region will push a cold front into the region Friday morning. Lift associated with the front, combined with increased moisture in place may allow for PoPs to return to the area as early as Friday afternoon. However, confidence in the coverage of PoPs Friday and through the weekend remains tricky and uncertain. As it will be dependent on the evolution of the FROPA and where it sets up in relation to the tropical wave moving in. Typically, the best rainfall is associated with the FROPA positioning which is hard to determine at this point in time. Most hi-resolution models have the front passing our northern counties by mid-morning Friday and through our southern most counties shortly after noon. If we see the front become slower in nature, stalling in the vicinity of the area, this could lead to the potential for more widespread coverage in PoPs and heavy rainfall. At this time, our best chance of seeing beneficial rainfall remains during the early Sunday morning time period, as an H5 jet streak inches closer to the region, although models depict this jet further south across the Big Country compared to this time yesterday. Although it is hard to pinpoint exactly where and when the most beneficial rainfall will fall at this time, periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected with PWATs well above the 90th percentile normal and embedded perturbations track through the flow. As for temperatures, a sharp gradient in temperatures is expected on Friday, as the front arrives to our northern counties by mid- morning and passes through the entire FA by the early evening Friday. This will lead to highs Friday in the upper 70s across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and in the 90s across the southeastern Rolling Plains. Highs will stay on the cooler side with highs steady in the 70s and 80s through the weekend into early next week thanks to the expectation of showers and thunderstorms, along with lingering cloud cover. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 607 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025 VFR is expected to prevail through this TAF period. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...30