Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
106 FXUS64 KLUB 030546 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1246 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1231 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 - Thunderstorms are possible early this morning and again this evening, with the highest chances focused off the Caprock. - Triple digit high temperatures are expected by Wednesday and continuing through the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 An MCS is currently observed over the northwestern Panhandle at 12 AM, slowly tracking southeastward. The associated upper wave and LLJ will move over the area early this morning. Both synoptic and reliable CAMs (namely HRRR/RAP) show it making to the far SE Panhandle and portions of the Rolling Plains around 6am and continuing southward through the morning. As with previous days, locally heavy rain/flooding and strong winds remain possible. Showers and thunderstorms should depart the area by mid-to-late morning and skies will clear into the afternoon. Surface winds will switch to southerly allowing for high temperatures to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Another wave and its associated surface front will propagate ahead of upper high pressure centered over the Desert Southwest and bring additional storm chances this evening. While there remains some uncertainty, the general consensus is that these storms will form late- afternoon/early evening and should remain east of I-27 with the same threats as mentioned above although wind could be a greater factor should a squall line form. Any storms should dissipate and/or exit the CWA by midnight. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 The long term forecast is on track for hot temperatures and dry conditions. An upper ridge sitting over northern Mexico/southwestern CONUS will continue to expand north and east through the work week. Monday is expected to a nice day with cooler than normal temperatures. A surface trough will shift surface winds to the east and sufficient moisture with dewpoints in the 60s will keep highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s on Monday. Sadly, the rest of the week will not be as nice with above seasonal normal temperatures. Increasing heights from the ridge setting up over the region will warm up temperatures. Models indicate 500 mb geopotential heights reaching 600 dam by mid-week. As a result, a majority of the region will reach at or above 100 degrees through the latter half of the week. High temperatures at the moment are below heat advisory criteria (105 degrees), however as it is a few days out, a heat advisory is possible. On top of the hot temperatures, we can also expect dry conditions. Subsidence from the overhead ridge will hinder any chances for convective development. Temperatures will slightly cool (sadly, only a couple of degrees) by the weekend as the upper ridging begins to weaken as an upper trough builds off the coast of the Pacific northwest and tracks over the northern CONUS although precipitation chances remain near zero. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 A complex of thunderstorms over northern portions of the TX Panhandle around 05z will gradually track south-southeastward through the rest of the overnight period. At time of issuance, the greatest potential for convective impacts appears to be at KCDS during the hours surrounding sunrise, with lesser probabilities at KPVW and only a very slim chance of thunder at KLBB. VFR will prevail outside of convection, but very strong winds as well as CIG and visibility reductions should be expected within TS. Thunder may linger in the vicinity of the terminals through about 15z, but this is uncertain. A break in convection is then expected during the midday period before chances of TS return this afternoon. The specifics of this second round of convection are very uncertain, so will address that potential in later issuances. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...30