Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
614 FXUS64 KLUB 181734 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1234 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025 - Scattered thunderstorms are forecast across the region today with the possibility of heavy rain fall and localized flooding. - Storm chances will continue Tuesday through early Thursday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Today looks to be a rinse and repeat of yesterday. The upper ridge over south central CONUS will continue to retrograde toward the southern Rockies through today as a potent upper trough tracks towards the Pacific Northwest. Although there will be a shift in the mid to upper level pattern, the monsoonal moisture plume will remain in place over the region today. Subsidence from the upper ridging will prevail, however with southerly surface upslope flow and a moist atmosphere, we can expect scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region this afternoon through the evening once convective temperatures have been reach. Similar to yesterday, timing and coverage of storms are uncertain at the moment. Storms that do develop are expected to remain sub-severe, however with PWATs around 1.5 inches, we can expect periods of heavy rainfall with the possibility of localized flooding. Severe wind gusts cannot be ruled out either. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to gradually diminish west to east through the overnight hours into early Tuesday morning. The upper ridging will continue to gradually retrograde Tuesday and center over the Four Corners. The atmosphere will begin to gradually dry out as the ridging retreats, however similar to the set up for storm chances today, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday afternoon and evening. PWATs continue to be around 1.5 inches, therefore can expect heavy rainfall and possible localized flooding with Tuesday`s storms. Temperatures remain about seasonal normal with lows in the 60s to 70s tonight and highs in the 90s Tuesday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 A wavy surface troughing pattern will be present across the southern High Plains, with the respective surface trough connecting to a lee cyclone in NW KS; and this cyclone should be embedded along a southward-moving, synoptic cold front spawned from a leading shortwave trough ejecting into the Upper Midwest. The forecast becomes a bit murky with respect to the timing of the synoptic cold front, which may be convectively-reinforced and accelerate its forward momentum southward towards W TX. Recent initializations of the NAM have caught onto this, and the NAM does particularly well with handling faster anafrontal movements relative to other suites of NWP guidance. NBM PoPs appear to have a better reflection of this as well, with the highest PoPs delineated late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Large- scale forcing for ascent will increase via the leading edge of the intense 250 mb jet streak arcing around the apex of the 598 dam subtropical ridge, contributing to 20 kt of flow throughout the steering layer. There is the potential for convection to become semi-organized along the cold front as it progresses southward, and ultimately, the timing of its passage will dictate the spatial extent of PoPs that follow heading into Wednesday evening. It is still too soon to know the exact mesoscale evolution of storms late Tuesday into Wednesday morning, but prospects for at least a few swaths of locally heavy rainfall appear possible. Thereafter, increasingly confluent flow aloft as the subtropical ridge expands will stifle storm chances through the weekend, with high temperatures near seasonal norms. Sincavage && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 VFR is expected through the TAF period. However, scattered thunderstorms are again possible this afternoon with greatest chances at KLBB and KPVW. Since coverage is expected to be scattered, there is not high enough confidence to place prevailing thunder in the TAFs at the moment. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...01