937
FXUS64 KLUB 310805
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
205 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 202 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

 - Breezy and warmer today.

 - Dry and unseasonably warm weather through the weekend and well
   into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 202 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

A wound up mid/upper level low over western Oklahoma this morning
eject to the east-northeast to the mid-Mississippi Valley by midday
and to the lower Ohio Valley be evening. The low to mid level height
gradient will remain fairly tight into the early afternoon hours
before weakening leading to breezy to windy northwest surface winds
through much of the day, especially across the eastern half of the
forecast area, with speeds beginning to decrease mid to late
afternoon and diminishing further this evening. Mid to upper level
heights will increase sharply behind the exiting low, and a
corresponding increase in 1000-500 mb thickness values point to high
temperatures today on the order of 5 to 10 degrees warmer than
yesterday despite a northerly component to the surface and low level
flow. Quiescent conditions are expected overnight with the light
winds and clear skies allowing temperatures to fall in line with NBM
and MOS values.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 202 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

Warmth is the key word for the long term portion of the forecast.
The warming trend will continue through the weekend with
temperatures Monday ahead of a weak cold front as 500 mb heights
increase to around 582 dam with the eastward progression of an upper
level ridge from northern Mexico and the southwestern CONUS.
Downsloping surface winds will aid with the warming through that
period. The weak cold front should lower temperatures for Tuesday,
but only modestly, before pushing higher again Wednesday as
southwest winds return to the forecast area. This ridge is progged
to begin breaking down late in the week as upper level energy
crashes into the western CONUS and temperatures progged to fall back
toward more normal levels for early February heading into next
weekend.

Regarding the warmth in the Sunday through Wednesday period, chances
for record high temperatures at Lubbock International Airport are
increasing with forecast highs now exceeding the records for Sunday
and Monday and just shy of the record for Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1040 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

Continued VFR. Lingering clouds around 6k ft AGL will clear from
W-E overnight as an upper low pulls away. WNW winds remain breezy
overnight with higher gusts developing by mid/late morning.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...93