557
FXUS64 KLUB 110521
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1221 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1221 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

 - Breezy and warm conditions are expected today and Sunday.

 - Cooler temperatures, with increasing chances for showers and
   thunderstorms, arrive late Sunday through Tuesday.

 - Drier and warmer conditions are forecast through the end of
   next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

03Z upper air analysis depicts an amplified pattern over North
America, with a well-defined, subtropical ridge centered over
northern Mexico; and a neutrally-tilting, shortwave trough digging
into the Chehalis River Valley. A subtle vorticity maximum was
analyzed on water-vapor imagery over the Desert Southwest, with
several baroclinic-leaf-like structures advecting poleward over the
southern Rocky Mountains. (These features will have implications in
the long-term forecast.) The mid-level vortex of the subtropical
ridge was misaligned from 250 mb, and was rotating over the S TX
Brush Country, or more specifically near DRT, as seen on the 11/00Z
RAOB. Bands of cirrus were beginning to advect over portions of W
TX, and will continue to expand and thicken throughout the course of
the short-term period as the plume of large-scale ascent over the
Desert Southwest gradually shifts eastward. Low-level flow remained
backed to the south and southeast, as observed by the 11/00Z RAOBs
at WFOs AMA and MAF, which kept the boundary-layer somewhat moist
despite the deep mixing that has since decoupled.

At the surface, a weak anticyclone was located along the Red River
Valley near the I-35 corridor, with a broad, persistent fetch of
southeasterly winds continuing to advect through the CWA. Farther
north, a north-south-oriented, quasi-stationary front was located
along the lee of the central Rocky Mountains, which connects to a
surface low near LAA. The quasi-stationary front then bends eastward
into KS, which will remain north of the CWA as it will eventually
undergo warm-frontogenesis. Surface winds will veer poleward later
this morning, as the lee cyclone in southeastern CO deepens and
generates a strengthening isallobaric response beneath the ejection
of the leading shortwave trough. Southerly winds between 15-25 mph
will be common across the Caprock, while diminishing slightly across
the Rolling Plains. High temperatures will be similar to Friday,
with mixing heights capped near 700 mb due to veered/westerly flow
advecting across the apex of the weakening subtropical ridge.
Cirrostratus will continue to thicken throughout the day, which will
also aid in preventing warmer temperatures from coming to fruition
and keep RH reductions in check this afternoon. Winds will remain
breezy heading into tonight while also veering southwestward, with
the resultant effects of adiabatic compression expected to keep lows
in the middle 60s for most of the CWA by Sunday morning.

Sincavage

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

By Sunday, the leading shortwave trough will have ejected into the
northern Great Plains, while series of smaller-scale perturbations
translate through the cyclonic flow that extends into the southern
Great Plains. The development of a longer-wave trough over the
western U.S. will also cause the subtropical ridge to substantially
dampen, with its apex shifting eastward and over the Middle MS River
Valley. Surface flow will remain veered to the southwest area-wide
Sunday, with similar high temperatures expected once again. However,
moistening of the mid- and high-level isentropes will occur as the
armada of shortwave perturbations eject over the southern Great
Plains, resulting in a thickening of cloud cover and highly-elevated
convection. Virga showers will be possible area-wide throughout the
day Sunday, followed by an increasing potential for elevated showers
and thunderstorms during the overnight hours Sunday into Monday. NBM
continues to handle this scenario well, with PoPs confined to the
Caprock prior to sunset Sunday and expanding area-wide.

Trailing the ejection of the leading shortwave trough over the
northern Great Plains will be a synoptic cold front, which is
forecast to slow in its southward progression Monday as the
subtropical ridge begins to amplify once again. A temperature
gradient of nearly 20 degrees remains forecast Monday, with the
coolest temperatures across the northern zones. Although FGEN will
be weakening, the contribution of low-level FGEN beneath the belt of
DPVA aloft will foster the potential for rounds of fast-moving
showers and storms across most of the CWA Monday. The alignment of
the cloud-layer flow relative to the position of the weakening front
will favor the potential for training; however, the fast storm
motions will mitigate the flash flooding potential despite PWAT
values between 3-4 standard deviations above the mean, as indicated
in the recent NAEFS/ENS guidance. The potential for fast-moving
showers and storms will last into overnight hours into Tuesday
morning, with the intensity of convection gradually waning as
frontolysis is completed. PoPs are forecast to diminish by late
Tuesday, as the subtropical ridge will continue to amplify and
become centered over S TX, shifting the cyclonic flow northwest of
the CWA. Drier and warmer conditions are then reflected through the
middle and end of next week.

Sincavage

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

VFR will prevail at all sites through this TAF period. Initially
light winds will increase and turn south-southwesterly by late
morning, then become breezy this afternoon.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...30