291
FXUS64 KLUB 051105
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
605 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 604 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

 - Unseasonably warm weather will continue through Monday.

 - Slightly cooler weather is expected Monday night through
   Wednesday along with low chances for some light precipitation.

 - Warmer and drier conditions are likely to return during the
   second half of the week into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Early morning water vapor imagery shows a vigorous mid-upper level
shortwave trough emerging over the northern High Plains. This system
will accelerate northeastward, racing across the Upper Midwest this
morning before crossing the international border this afternoon and
being absorbed into a much larger trough occupying much of Canada.
Trailing this disturbance, a positively tilted trough will remain
over the western CONUS today and tonight. This will keep rather weak
southwesterly flow aloft over West Texas, as we reside on the
southeastern fringes of the broad trough. The ejecting system well
to our north has induced a broad 30-40+ knot southerly LLJ
stretching from the southern High Plains through the Upper Midwest.
The LLJ could support some gustiness through the remainder of the
night, with solidly breezy southerly winds unfolding again today as
the LLJ mixes out. Minimal change in the height/thickness fields
along with plenty of insolation will support another unseasonably
warm/hot afternoon. In fact, the progged 850 mb temperatures even
suggest a slight uptick over our northwestern zones, so they could
top out 2-3 degrees warmer than Saturday. All said, highs in the
upper 80s and lower 90s will be the rule across our entire FA.
Southerly winds, albeit at lighter levels, will persist tonight
leading to another mild overnight by early October standards. Expect
tonight`s low to range from the mid-upper 50s across the western
counties to the lower and even a few middle 60s from the central
South Plains (around Lubbock) into the Rolling Plains and southeast
Texas Panhandle.

Otherwise, generally dry conditions will prevail over the next 24
hours. However, we will have to keep an eye on a surface trough that
will extend south-southwest from a cold front that is progged to
stall over southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas by this evening.
Some of the high-resolution guidance suggests isolated high-based
convection may attempt to form along the surface trough this
evening, potentially affecting the southwest Texas Panhandle and
northwest South Plains. A rather deep and dry sub-cloud layer, in
combination with weak instability and a lack of upper support, argue
against anything more than transient, spotty, light activity, though
a couple of rumbles of thunder and gusty winds can`t be completely
ruled out. Given this, we have accepted NBM`s swath of 10% PoPs over
our northwestern zones this evening, but we don`t have any
mentionable weather in the grids at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

The synoptic pattern during the beginning of the upcoming week will
be characterized by a broad zone of enhanced southwest flow aloft
over most of the central CONUS associated with an elongated
shortwave trough axis over the Intermountain West and deeper
longwave troughing in place over most of Canada. The aforementioned
surface cold front is still progged to make relatively little
southward progress through most of the day on Monday, with a
relatively warm day looking more likely across our area given
continued southerly surface flow. Even with the frontal zone likely
located to our north, a few showers and thunderstorms will be
possible Monday afternoon through late Monday evening over the SW TX
Panhandle and the NM state line within an area of enhanced surface
confluence within a pre-frontal surface trough and a modest
enhancement of midlevel moisture. The cold front is then expected to
progress southward through the South Plains region on Tuesday, with
most models indicating a post-frontal easterly surface flow
component will persist through Wednesday. This will result in a
modest but refreshing cooldown during the Tue-Wed timeframe with
highs likely to be in the 70s or 80s area-wide both days. Chances
for showers and a few storms also continue on Tuesday through early
Wednesday as a ribbon of midlevel moisture remains overhead within
the southwest flow aloft, but a general lack of large scale forcing
for ascent still is expected to keep any precipitation fairly
isolated with only very light rain totals looking possible through
midweek.

During the second half of the week, the overall pattern will trend
back towards a warmer and drier one as broad upper level ridging
initially over the Gulf coast translates westward, eventually
settling over the south-central or southwestern CONUS by the end of
the week. Although some residual moisture could linger beneath the
ridge, precipitation chances look quite low across the entire region
from late Wednesday into next weekend, with temperatures rising back
above normal for this time of year as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

VFR conditions will continue with breezy south winds developing
mid-morning and persisting to sunset.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...07