217
FXUS64 KLUB 110512
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1212 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1207 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

 - A cold front arriving on Thursday afternoon may bring
thunderstorms to the region favoring the Rolling Plains.

 - Additional chances of thunderstorms will continue through the
   weekend into early next week.

 - A brief break in the heat is expected early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 1027 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

An upper level ridge spread across the southern US will continue to
bring very warm temperatures for Thursday afternoon. However, better
chances of convection will emerge in the afternoon hours with a cold
front stalling out across the area. Some large scale ascent will
move overhead in the afternoon associated with a 70-80kt jet streak
rotating around the upper ridge. A strong short wave trough moving
from the Central Plains into the Midwest will send this cold front
into the area. The front is currently forecast to enter the southern
Texas Panhandle by late morning and stall out somewhere over the
southern South Plains and Rolling Plains by late in the afternoon.
The front will likely struggle to make it farther south when
encountering a deeper mixed boundary layer. Moisture will continue
to surge into the region ahead of the front on breezy southerly
winds. Blended guidance has mostly underperformed with surface dew
points the past several days by mixing out the lower atmosphere too
much. Surface dew points off the caprock will likely top out around
70 over the Rolling Plains into the extreme southeastern Texas
Panhandle by daybreak on Thursday. Some mixing out of these dew
points can be expected but perhaps not as much as models are
indicating based on previous performance. A healthy low level theta-
e axis will develop along the southern end of the frontal boundary.
This axis will extend to the southwest into the southwestern South
Plains into a triple point/surface low and then southward along a
dryline. The higher dew points will yield much higher available
instability with mixed layer values possibly exceeding 3000 J/kg.
Deep layer shear will not be great with weak winds through much of
the troposphere until you reach the aforementioned upper level jet
streak. Convection will favor the Rolling Plains and extreme
southeastern Texas Panhandle where the better moisture will reside.
Storms will easily be capable of becoming severe with large hail and
damaging winds despite the lack of deep layer shear. How far west
convection will develop is unclear with increasing CIN farther to
the west on the caprock.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1027 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

The expected convection on Thursday afternoon and evening will make
for an unclear forecast for Friday. Several residual outflow
boundaries will likely be hanging around the region in addition to
the quasi-stationary front. The front will attempt to retreat back
northward as a warm front during the day. The atmosphere will remain
very unstable with strong moisture still in place but with a lack of
large scale ascent. The upper ridge will expand slightly resulting
in weak height rises overhead. Convection on Friday may be highly
dependent on where any old boundaries will be located. The upper
level ridge will further expand in coverage on Saturday with
stronger height rises overhead. Another cold front is expected to
plow southward into the area by late Saturday afternoon with
additional convection on this surface feature. By this time though,
we expect more summer like surface dew points leading to lower
available instability. The forecast becomes messy after Saturday as
we transition to northwest flow with the upper ridge building over
the southwestern US into the eastern Pacific. There is higher
certainty in a brief period of cooler temperatures early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail. A low cloud deck will fill in to the
east of KPVW and KLBB overnight, but is not expected to impact
conditions. Breezy southerly winds will continue through early
afternoon, before shifting to the north this afternoon following a
cold front. There are thunderstorm chances along the cold front
that will stall part way through the region, however left out of
TAF at the moment as location of the cold front is still
uncertain.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...10