017
FXUS64 KLUB 031741
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1241 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1231 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

 - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible late afternoon
   through tonight.

 - Seasonably hot Monday while precipitation chances wane.

 - Triple digit high temperatures will be common Wednesday,
   Thursday and Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

This morning`s MCS has modified the setup for this afternoon. Its
outflow boundary continues to push westward, but at noon it had
pushed to near the New Mexico state line. Winds east of the boundary
will veer with time this afternoon but should still generate enough
convergence to see isolated to scattered convection initiation
toward 22Z in line with a majority of the hi-res solutions. Have
thus pushed PoPs back westward to account for this. A southeastward
movement is then expected from this potential cluster of storms. In
addition, progged shear, particularly surface-3km shear, is
favorable for the development of some supercellular characteristics
with this initial convection which supports the previous idea of a
severe threat with large hail and possibly even a tornado in the
equation. Bigger questions revolve around additional thunderstorm
development early evening and beyond. Much will depend upon how much
recovery can occur across the eastern half of the forecast area and
into the eastern Panhandle behind this morning`s MCS. With
additional perturbation in the mid levels resulting in fairly
widespread ACCAS and even some persistent showers, that process has
been slower than previously expected. Model guidance is a mixed bag
with most keeping initiation well to the east of the forecast area.
Meanwhile, old faithful back on the high terrain to the northwest is
looking likely to shut down as mid to upper level ridging has
begun to build from the west. In addition, surface/low level flow
is unfavorable with a light downslope component dominant across
northeastern New Mexico. Will not yet make major changes to the
forecast given uncertainties mainly with destabilization and keep
a 20-30 percent wording through tonight focused mainly on eastern
areas.

Quieter weather is expected on Monday as the ridge to west builds
farther to the north and east. An increase in heights and
thicknesses will be somewhat offset by lingering upslope east-
southeast low level flow, so temperatures should reach highs near
normal for the date. Meanwhile, precip chances look slim, although
with that upslope flow cannot rule out completely. However, will
keep PoPs below mentionable levels.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

No big changes in the extended forecast today as heat remains at the
forefront from mid-late week. The culprit supplying the heat will be
an upper ridge/high that will expand this way and strengthen through
the middle of the week. This will occur as several disturbances
infiltrate the Pacific Northwest and western Canada and cause the
ridge currently centered across the Desert Southwest and
northwestern Mexico to amplify and propagate northeastward. The
upper high is progged to peak in intensity midweek (around 600 dam
at H5) while centered over New Mexico, before gradually
deamplifying and retrograding late week into next weekend as broad
troughing traverses the northern tier of the nation. The net
result for West Texas will be hot temperatures, with triple digit
highs common from Wednesday through Friday. The NBM continues to
paint highs of 100 to 104 degrees for most of the CWA over this
stretch, which looks reasonable given the statistical guidance and
progged 850 mb temperatures at or near 31C. Still wouldn`t be
surprised to see a few spots threaten/breach 105 degrees (our Heat
Advisory threshold) during this period, especially off the
Caprock. Of note, the record highs from August 6th-8th are right
around 105 degrees at Lubbock and 110 degrees at Childress.
Indications are that we should come up a little shy of the
records, but regardless it will be hot. Temperatures will begin to
edge downward next weekend as the influences from the upper high
ease, though it will likely stay on the warm/hot side of average.

As one might expect, rain/storm chances will be low to NIL through
much extended as the upper high dominates the area. There are weak
signals that convection originating well to the north could roll
into the CWA late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. This is
not out of the question given decent northerly flow aloft and
southerly low-level flow, but it is certainly an outlier and we have
accepted the unmentionable PoPs from the NBM. Thereafter, some mid-
level moisture may eventually get drawn up into the northern side of
the upper high, which could support low thunder chances by late
week, primarily well north of the CWA. Eventually, limited monsoon
moisture and low rain chances may materialize closer by, but
probably not until next weekend or early the following week. The
latest iteration of the NBM carries a slight thunder mention over
the far northwestern zones Saturday evening and a little better
chance over roughly the northwest half of the CWA Sunday evening,
which looks reasonable at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Isolated to scattered TSRA are most likely to develop between
KLBB/KPVW and the NM state line mid to late afternoon and then move
to the southeast. KLBB is the most likely to be affected by these
storms, but confidence right now in location of initiation and
evolution of storms is too low at this time to keep a TS mention
in the TAFs at this time. May very well need to reinsert later
when confidence increases. Even more uncertainty revolves around
further development or advection of storms in the forecast area.
Overall, will keep a fairly clean set of TAFs with VFR conditions
and no TS mention at this time. Breezy southeast to south winds
this afternoon should relax this evening.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...07